There is a definite tendency among some European and American media sources and certain bloggers, tweeters and message-senders to interpret every current event as a disaster with portents of doom. It plays to human nature and raises profiles and ratings.
I read a recent British headline, “ISIS Going Global!”, and read the article. In it, the journalist shares his take on the crash and the inevitable second and third order effects—all bad. His lead in “….Only the Obama White House denies the truth”.
The “real” story, as he and some American outlets tell us is based on their certainty that ISIS/IS/ISIL planted a bomb on the plane. Continuing their line of reasoning, the fact that ISIS sneaked an explosive device on-board and killed 224 Russians is proof positive that the terrorist group is about to cause death and destruction in Western Europe and the United States. They’ve taught Russia a lesson and now it’s our turn.
More than that, they equate IS/ISIS/ISIL to Al Qaeda, IRA and the Red Brigade. And they conclude, Putin will retaliate harshly by deploying more troops including the dreaded Spetsnaz (Russian Special Forces), more planes, personnel etc. to Syria. Their final conclusion: Russia will become the strongest player in the Middle East, not the U.S.
Another View
ISIS or another actor may indeed have planted a bomb on the Russian charter. A US spy satellite did see a flash at the moment the plane disappeared from radar. Other options are the tail fell off again (did some years ago), or there was an electrical circuit problem that ignited the fuel tank. However, the precise reason the plane crashed, even if it were a bomb, doesn’t automatically translate into another 9/11 or London assaults because even ISIS doesn’t have the present capability of carrying out numerous attacks against NATO members, including the US. And none of it leads inexorably to the decline of America in the Middle East or elsewhere.
Putin to date has been cautious (cancelled Russian flights to Sharm el Sheik) about assigning the blame on anything or anyone because he does not want to get ahead of the forensic evidence and possibly frighten the public. If it was not a tragic accident and the perp cannot be identified, Kremlin propaganda may try to pin the cause on America (2003 Iraq invasion created ISIS etc.). However, if the story doesn’t fly, Russians might begin to believe Putin’s Syrian adventure is beginning to harm innocent Russians. Something similar happened when the number of body bags from Ukraine and funerals in Russia increased and entered local media. Soon thereafter, Russia’s support to the separatists-insurgency in Eastern Ukraine dropped markedly and a weak cease-fire took hold.
So what does the Russian plane crash mean?
First, it will not have the same effect on the Russian public as the destruction of MH-17 had on the EU nations, i.e. unify them behind tough sanctions on Russia. Whether a bomb or a spark or the old bird just fell apart, expect tough talk from the Kremlin, additional attacks on ISIS, or heightened military action to shore up Assad and more chat about military sales to Iran. But, beyond that the crash means nothing much to the US and its allies. And both the US and Russia want to continue meeting in Vienna to find a political settlement for Syria. Putin even said recently Assad doesn’t have to stay.
Tom Timberman is an expert on military policy and now lives on the Eastern Shore. Among his many assignments with the US Department of State, he has headed a provincial reconstruction team, embedded within a combat brigade in Iraq. He has also helped implement a new counterterrorism strategy in South East Asia as Senior Advisor for South Asia in the Office of Coordinator for Counterterrorism.
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