Biden’s Two Biggest Problems: Perception and Trust by Craig Fuller

Highlights of a comprehensive Harris Poll on where Americans’ perceptions are regarding the economy

There is an old saying in Washington, D.C. that “perception is reality.”

When it comes to the economy, this describes one of two major problems facing the Biden Administration. What people think about the economy – it’s not good – establishes their thoughts on what remains the top national issue for voters in 2024. How people answer that troubling question, “Are you better off,” is based on perceptions that are mostly wrong.

And, if that’s not bad enough, the second problem makes it worse. Two out of three Americans according to the Harris survey no longer know who they can trust when it comes to economic information.

So, while the President of the United States continues to hold the most significant bully pulpit around, what he says goes to an ever doubting audience. This makes perception, to the extent it is wrong, extremely difficult to change in the time remaining between now and the Election Day in November.

I will share the survey results below, but before you read the results take two minutes and test your perception. In a very clever interactive quiz, you get to share your perceptions across a few important economic metrics. Warning: feedback is immediate!

Informative, I hope.

Here’s what the recent Harris Poll discovered (full article).

• • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.
  • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
  • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
  • 72%, indicated they think inflation is increasing. In reality, the rate of inflation has fallen sharply from its post-Covid peak of 9.1% and has been fluctuating between 3% and 4% a year.
  • In April, the inflation rate went down from 3.5% to 3.4% – far from inflation’s 40-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022 – triggering a stock market rally that pushed the Dow Jones index to a record high.
  • Unemployment has also hit historic lows, wages have been going up and consumer spending has been strong.
  • In the poll, 55% think the economy is only getting worse.
  • Republicans were much more likely to report feeling down about the economy than Democrats. The vast majority of Republicans believe that the economy is shrinking, inflation is increasing and the economy is getting worse overall. A significant but smaller percentage of Democrats, less than 40%, believed the same.
  • Something both Republicans and Democrats agree on: they don’t know who to trust when it comes to learning about the economy. In both September and May, a majority of respondents – more than 60% – indicated skepticism over economic news.
  • “What Americans are saying in this data is: ‘Economists may say things are getting better, but we’re not feeling it where I live,’” said John Gerzema, CEO of the Harris Poll. “Unwinding four years of uncertainty takes time.”

This last statement is absolutely correct, but without trust and with too little time, the task for the Biden Administration remains extremely difficult.

The full article and the quiz appear in THE GUARDIAN

Craig Fuller served four years in the White House as assistant to President Reagan for Cabinet Affairs, followed by four years as chief of staff to Vice President George H.W. Bush. Having been engaged in five presidential campaigns and running public affairs firms and associations in Washington, D.C., he now resides on the Eastern Shore and publishes DECADE SEVEN on Substack.

This commentary by Craig Fuller first appeared in DECADE SEVEN.