This primary election cycle, eight Republicans have filed with the State Board of Elections to be on the ballot as the Republican candidate for Governor. That is four more than the number who ran in the 2022 Republican primary. The current candidate’s name recognition ranges from relatively well known, to little known, to not known.
This larger field may reflect optimism among Maryland Republicans, that incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore may be vulnerable in his re-election race.
That optimism is based in part on a University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) poll, released in April. The survey results included news that Governor Moore’s job approval rating was below 50% for the first time in a public poll since he took office in 2023. Only 48% of residents expressed approval of his job performance while 42% expressed disapproval. The poll also reported that the number of poll responders who believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, was 59%, up from 40% in a previous UMBC poll.
Many Republicans view these poll results as an indication of voter anger over new state taxes, tax rate increases, new state fees, fee increases, and substantial spikes in energy costs, all of which have occurred or are occurring during Governor Moore’s first term. There are also unsolved questions about transparency and credibility about Moore’s responses on his military and academic experiences.
Governor Moore has repeatedly said in multiple media outlets, the root cause of unpopular decisions and outcomes that Maryland voters are concerned about are the direct result of actions by the Trump administration and a Republican controlled Congress.
That narrative may not click with voters.
In her comments on these polling results, Dr. Mileah Kromer, Director of the UMBC Institute of Politics said in a Baltimore Sun interview, “The overarching tone of the survey is the concern, frustration, and anger over affordability issues. Sooner or later, the governor becomes the focal point. That’s the thing about being the governor, you get the credit when things are going great. He can’t as an individual fix grocery prices. But people tend to hold the chief executive of the state accountable.”
With all due respect to the supporters of all eight Republican candidates wanting to challenge Wes Moore, defeating him in a general election will be a steep, uphill climb.
Moore is a charismatic campaigner, has widespread name recognition, and is an incumbent. He has also raised an estimated six million dollars for his reelection race, and there is an assumption that Maryland is a deep blue state.
That assumption is not affirmed by the most current voter registration numbers. A slight majority (51.4%) of Maryland voters are registered as Democrats, 33.7 % are registered as Republicans, and 34.9% are unaffiliated or registered with other parties.
All things considered, many believe that Wes Moore will win in his race for reelection.
A much larger question is if the Republican Party in Maryland will win a race for relevance going forward.
Some say demise of the GOP in Maryland will never happen.
That is wishful thinking based on history. Political parties that have lost relevance and then disappeared include the Federalist, Democratic-Republican, Whig, Free Soil, and Progressive (“Bull Moose”) parties.
Being irrelevant or not surviving as a political party in Maryland are not givens for Republicans. Much depends on their future success in winning statewide elections.
Maryland Republicans need to consistently replicate a proven Republican campaign model that met with great success in two gubernatorial races.
That model was executed brilliantly by moderate Republican Larry Hogan in winning one election and one reelection in races for governor. His initial campaign theme “Change Maryland” and his moderate governing style resonated with a winning bloc of voters who were registered as Republicans, Democrats, and the unaffiliated. It confirmed that, to win a statewide election in Maryland, a Republican candidate must secure some level of support from Democratic and unaffiliated registered voters, in addition to support from a base of Republican registered voters.
A campaign model Republicans in Maryland need to avoid replicating is conservative Republican Dan Cox’s 2022 race against Wes Moore. That race was a category five disaster for Republicans in part because Cox was endorsed by Donald Trump. That endorsement helped Cox win the Republican nomination but was a spectacular failure in generating votes for him from enough Democratic and unaffiliated voters to win a general election. That was not surprising since in three presidential races, Trump’s statewide votes in Maryland were 33.9 % in 2016, 32.1% in 2020 and 34.9% in 2024.
Wes Moore won handily with 65% of the statewide vote. His win margin was the largest by a Democratic candidate for governor since William Donald Schaefer was elected governor in 1986 with 82% of the statewide vote and winning every county and Baltimore City.
Going forward, an irrelevant or non-existent Republican party should be of deep concern to every Maryland resident, regardless of their political party affiliation or non-affiliation.
In a recent post in his Politics & Government blog, John Dedie said it well: “I am a Democrat, but Republicans need to do well in Maryland because without strong normal two-party competition, one party sets the agenda, they can do whatever the hell they want. The other party becomes irrelevant without two-party competition.”
3 Responses
People upset at taxes and fees. Nothing gets my blood boiling more than this and those who are now lamenting the price of gas and fertilizers.
As a former Republican who worked for Republicans when they believed in democracy, where the hell were you when the grift started? When incompetent
nominees were confirmed , you know the ones who have only an allegiance to Trump yet non to their job. Like DOJ (personal attorney, really??!), Sec Def, what a
creep and totally unqualified except to perhaps judge the best “incompetent “
member of our armed forces who actually lives up to his oath. FBI, what a drunk
Idiot who is using our tax dollars to reward agents to keep quiet about his drunken
behavior and other nefarious things. What a creep….and I have not brought up every other cabinet member who has delightfully sold their souls for $$$$$ and
power.
Republicans make me sick and ashamed.
You want to win? Purge.
I counted nine current Maryland Republican gubernatorial candidates: Brunner, Cox, Burkindine, Hale, Larcombe, Myrick, Oakes, Taylor and Wright. Their competition isn’t really about connecting with Maryland’s Republican voters so much as its to receive Trump’s endorsement because they are the most radically devoted to him – as Cox did four years ago.
The idea of Maryland having a relevant Republican Party is a deep concern to me. That is because the Republican Party isn’t really a political party anymore. It is a cult of personality, where its elected officials who fail to support whatever Trump wants are dismissed. This is why Maryland Republican elected officials at any and every level ever speak out against Trump’s misadventures, bigotry, racism, misbehavior, obvious lies and unconstitutional excesses. This is how Trump drags millions of otherwise good people into his world of degeneracy where Republican elected officials and the rank and file, for example, quietly support his evil, self-preserving quashing of the Epstein Files. The few who have the courage and dignity do speak out are immediately primaried by a different Trump sychophant, receive numerous death threats and are banished.
Which Maryland Republicans spoke out against all the DOGE firings of thousands of Marylanders? Which Maryland Republicans spoke out against the idiocy of Trump’s claims of having had the 2020 election stolen from him despite the absence of any evidence or the fact that many Republicans won their elections on those same ballots? Which Maryland Republicans spoke out against the Iran War or to release the Epstein Files? Its quite clear to me that Congressman Harris was an accomplice to Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election by refusing to confirm the Electoral College results and he likely was involved in planning the attack on the US Capitol. Harris doesn’t represent Marylanders. He does whatever Trump tells him to do.
Here in Talbot County, the Republican Central Committee seems to demand 100% adherence from all elected officials to the leadership’s dictates. Sound familiar? This isn’t about representing the will of Republican voters so much as the Central Committee aiming to ensure all votes reflect Trump’s direction.
While Trump isn’t on the ballot in 2026, Trumpism is. Voting for a Republican is handing Trump another proxy for extremist Trumpism. Thus, Maryland Republican leadership can blindly support massive tax breaks for billionaires and exploding the national debt even as they complain about tax hikes for average Marylanders and investment in public education.
Trumpism is fascism. The dog whistling of bigotry, racism, misogyny and Christian Nationalism, I believe, are at its base, along with the blasphemy of invoking Christianity into its utterly unchristian ideology are fascist themes, as is “America First”. Voting for any Republican is proxy voting for the cult of Trumpism.
The GOP in Maryland has morphed into the GOTC(ult). I hope the Republicans with a conscience will join in its political demise under Trump and Trumpism by rejecting the fascist cult, the degeneracy of racism, bigotry and all the tenets that Trump has dragged down into his underworld, which we all know is abased and evil. A cultist believes Trump is the only man who can make America great again. A true Republican knows better and should vote to minimize the damage already done to our country under his vile misdirection.
No good will come to any GOP representative following Trump’s policies in his waning days of the second term. Or carrying his anti democratic policies forward.
Many of these policies are by default, anti Maryland—especially those impacting employment in a state already wracked with ballooning budget shortfalls and cost of living concerns.
If the GOP wishes to assume gubernatorial leadership, it may need to return to the basics of good governance best practices and focus on platforms that were formerly embraced, chief among them, economics.
The Commerce Department is a good cabinet to examine: four Office of Legislative Audits (OLA) and Joint Audit and Evaluation Commission (JAEC) referrals have been accepted regarding oversight of the state’s tourism apparatus and Maryland Alcohol Manufacturing and Promotion Advisory Commission—all allege misuse of public funds totaling millions.
Another is TEDCO, also referred to oversight for lack of legible governance of the 50MM Equitech Growth Fund.
After a year of mapping state agencies, cabinets, commissions, boards, programs, and allied entities, the uncomfortable and emerging truth is that Maryland governance is not legible to itself, let alone its citizenry.
And when public funds are at stake that impact the economic well being of Marylanders?
Legible governance is a minimum standard both parties should aim for.