Wanted: Leadership. Credentialed, bipartisan, private- and public-sector informed, and prepared to work quickly. Subject: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
This is the way Artificial Intelligence (AI), our current stage, defines AGI: a hypothetical AI system that matches or surpasses human cognitive abilities, allowing it to learn, reason, and adapt across any intellectual task or domain.
In 1965, Gordon Moore, a co-founder of Intel, wrote an article for Electronics Magazine observing that component counts on chips would double yearly. Moore proved to be prophetic. The prophecy became known as Moore’s Law. Machine intelligence was racing forward.
Beyond being prophetic, Moore’s prediction turned into a time clock—a demanding one. The most able technology innovators adjusted their day job to play by that time clock—it became an all-day job.
Technology leaders are now in control of much of what we do (yet another god-like force) and America’s contingent is in competition with China’s. At least in America, there is a third Party that increasingly insists on being heard—the Party: all Americans who must live with the potential threat of being displaced—we. In China the Communist Party is in control and likely a stimulate and drag on China’s global ambitions.
As Gordon Moore theorized, the public thought of computers as useful tools to be used by humans to do what we wanted. As earlier noted, this was over 60 years ago.
Alarmists today write of human displacement in a machine-led world and the potential use of AGI by evil people who would regard catastrophic occurrences as a feature leading to their dominance.
Forces in American life, as we hang on, have become a swirl of prevailing and countervailing ones presenting challenges well beyond what can be worked out in our raucous political environment. Simply stated, we do not have a political figure or figures who can assert constructive leadership; we are paralyzed by severe partisanship. A good leader is careful, often quiet, and keeps goodwill in reserve.
But, the need for a unifying force is clear. Where we go in competition and utilization on a global stage requires collaborative work. Of course if global collaboration is necessary, and it is, the job of a leadership core becomes even more complicated, many would say impossible.
I use AI and find its speed in helping me with research remarkable. I do not use it for writing. I can imagine as AI is transformed into AGI miraculous work in countering disease and other threats to humanity. AGI will have the potential to help us avoid human displacement, unless humans decide to be submissive.
But history makes clear that this extraordinary set of developments will undoubtedly confront civilization with profound risks as ambition frequently displaces ethics.
I turn back to what I know best, the Federal Communications Commission. It was created by Congress to ensure that the small number of people who commanded the broadcast airwaves in 1934 acted as the new law enshrined: “in the public interest”. Or, think medicine. As patients, we are protected by the Hippocratic oath demanded of doctors: “do no harm”.
We will need overarching principles and legal brakes that, through regulatory agencies and the courts, can discipline bad actors. We regulate humans and need to be in a position to regulate machines.
To reiterate, it is warned that AGI will lead to machines charting their own course. It seems to me that the technology leadership that is shaping a future of super intelligence should be able to conceive and engineer necessary protection. If it can’t then super-intelligence is not in the offing—suicide is not smart. The companies that can algorithmically protect us will be the winners in the race for the future. Protection should be a feature. Most Americans at this point are fearful; reassurance is needed.
Yes, America will need rules that encourage innovation while protecting the public. As the new Congress chooses its leaders after the November elections, it should authorize a Select Committee to answer what informs the metaphorical “kill switch”. And it needs to point with optimism and support the potential of AGI to improve civilization.
Many of you who have stayed with me to the end are doubtful or even cynical. I don’t blame you. Congress has in recent years become a failing institution and at its best does not work at Moore’s Law speed. Perhaps Congress can rediscover bi-partisan leadership and become a partner in the future of AI and AGI. If it can muster bipartisan and constructive leadership, it can achieve a rebirth. And a more deliberative pace can be helpful in confronting those ready to overpower humanity.
One Response
A wise and provocative article. To get a wise, proactive Congress, it appears that we voters will first have to use the “kill switch” to oust the Do Nothings and elect people whose North Star is doing what’s best for the people. Not making money. Not worshipping themselves on television. Not day trading. Not looking for a career job in Congressional District 4. Not perpetually in recess back home watching “Victory at Sea.”
Just there to get the best thinking, to lead and work. There’s no time to waste — America is floundering. Junk anachronistic, hobbling statutes that Gorilla Glue the people, innovation, and our economy. Legislate clearly, wisely, honestly, and economically.
Unlike Chairman Sikes, however, I never, ever use AI to narfff**@@@@@@narf narfgarb(((encaw wah-bkk