My first full emersion into debate preparation occurred in 1984 during President Reagan’s reelection campaign. Somehow these sessions have become a kind of Super Bowl in the presidential election contest.
There are four distinct time frames around which a candidate and his team strategize: the run-up to the debate; the pre-game commentary; the debate itself; and, of course the spin room spinning to tell reporters what they just witnessed.
Run-Up
Right now, a week out, we’re into the run-up. Somewhat predictably, the Biden campaign’s intention seems focused on getting under the thin skin of Donald Trump. A huge campaign ad buy reminds voters in all the close states that Trump is a convicted felon.
I get it. I just hope they don’t stick with this approach since it is not giving voters anything new to think about.
Pre-Game
The pre-game commentary is used to set the stage and to set expectations. The Trump campaign will be hard put to lower expectation with regard to their candidates performance. Just ask him. He’s the greatest debater ever.
It’s trickier for the Biden campaign. While they clearly do not want to set expectations too high, they do not want to suggest they doubt the President’s ability to engage.
Were it me, I’d suggest making every attempt to define what a successful debate would look like. And, I’d focus on substance. If President Biden makes some solid points about the economy, immigration, abortion rights and a touch of foreign policy, he will have succeeded. And, Trump will not likely go to substance; thus, the Biden team can claim Trump missed a huge opportunity to tell us what he favors.
The Debate
Neither Biden nor Trump have debated anyone in some time. That is a shared disadvantage. There is no audience; and, Trump likes to play to an audience. Also, the CNN team will reportedly utilize a kill switch on microphones if things get out of hand.
The real question is what tact does President Biden take.
Since he cannot over rant Donald Trump, I think he should bring substance to the table and, if the chance arrives, seek to humiliate. In other words go to substantive places where Trump just cannot go.
Biden could ask what the unemployment rate was for minorities when Trump left office. Ask him if he knows the number. Spoiler alert, minority unemployment was higher then than it is today.
Biden could share some content about his recent summit meeting. He could indicate he had a very meaningful conversation with the leader of Italy. Then, ask Trump if he knows the leader’s name.
No matter how much preparation the Trump team provides, it is very hard to imagine that Donald Trump will use his time to do anything other than lash out. He will hit at Hunter Biden’s conviction. He will challenge the President’s cognitive ability. He will attack the Justice Department and crooked judges.
Post-Debate Spin
In a large room near the stage where the debate occurs, numbers of prearranged Biden surrogates and Trump surrogates will be at the ready with talking points in hand BEFORE the debate even ends. iPhone technology will allow for updating, but each campaign will know what it wants to say before the debate ends.
What cannot be underestimated is the drama on stage. There is likely to be more than in past years, and you can’t sell reporters on something they did not see. I’ve always questioned the usefulness of the spin room and this year it may be of less value than ever before.
The other place the spin occurs is with the cable news channels. Anchors and commentators will be getting texts from both campaigns in real time exclaiming the brilliance of the retorts by their candidate. Again, you can’t make anyone unsee something or come to appreciate something that did not happen.
So friends, get ready for the first big event of Campaign 2024 coming at 9:00 PM EDT on June 27th from the CNN studios in Atlanta.
Oh, in case you are wondering about the unemployment statistics…according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:
2020 / Overall unemployment: 8.1% / African Americans: 11.4% / Hispanic: 10.4%
May 2024/ Overall: 4.0% / African Americans: 6.1% / Hispanic: 5.0 %
Craig Fuller served four years in the White House as assistant to President Reagan for Cabinet Affairs, followed by four years as chief of staff to Vice President George H.W. Bush. Having been engaged in five presidential campaigns and running public affairs firms and associations in Washington, D.C., he now resides on the Eastern Shore and publishes DECADE SEVEN on Substack.
Donald Martin says
What would you suggest Mr. Biden’s response be should Mr. Trump say that according to the BLS the US unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in 2019 (still lower than 5 years later) just before Covid stopped the economy in its tracts in 2020?
I suggest quoting statistics is neither man’s strong suit.
Laurie Powers says
I couldn’t care less about this sham debate and certainly won’t watch it. The two uniparty candidates colluded with CNN to exclude Independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. from the planned debates and the FEC has said what they’re doing is wrong. Besides being cowardly – Kennedy is the only adult in the room and would provide intelligent and thoughtful substance and significant challenges to the other two, it’s unconscionable, undemocratic and unAmerican. With 80% of Americans saying they don’t want to have to choose between these two evils, CNN and the powerful two-party system are doing Americans a disservice. I hope those who are serious about wanting more choice in the upcoming election will boycott this staged theater, as we Kennedy supporters will.