Please, don’t for a minute hesitate to vote in this election!
Much will change on the national scene, but voters will ultimately determine just what kind of change we experience, so you should not miss such an opportunity to express your views in the voting booth.
So, here’s my pre-election list of what I think the future holds…think of it as the top ten predictions flowing from this election that will reshape the political scene for years to come…
1. A new Speaker: it’s hard to find anyone who believes with any certainty that Republicans can hold onto their majority in the House; but, whether they do or don’t, the speakership changes with Paul Ryan’s retirement. This change brings a whole series of new leaders to the forefront. And, if Democrats do have a majority after Election Day, which I believe is highly likely, the change will be so much greater where every chairmanship of every committee changes as do top staff.
Whoever becomes Speaker will continue to have one of the most difficult jobs in Washington with the challenge of holding enough members of the Speaker’s party and adding a few from the other party to advance important legislation.
This was hard, if not impossible, over the past two years, and the changes in the House will make action moving forward more difficult.
2. An Empowered Loyal Opposition: one game-changing feature of a Democratic majority in the House relates to control of agendas in House Committees. Most importantly, many Committees have the ability to investigate actions by the Administration. The loyal opposition will ensure that time between now and election 2020 fills with charges and investigations designed, at least in part, to embarrass the Administration. The Opposition will be “loyal,” but loyal only to a process of challenging and investigating the Trump administration.
3. A Senate Where Numbers No Longer Provide a Functioning Majority: with the current necessity to find just one or two votes in the Senate to confirm Supreme Court Justice nominees or pass Administration proposals, a more narrow margin for advancing anything after this election in the Senate makes getting anything done more challenging.
4. Cabinet Changes: some changes in the Cabinet are to be expected, but look for more change than usual with mounting tension flowing from challenges by a Congress controlled, in part, by Democrats. And, as people at the top of these organizations leave, so too will other appointees. Suddenly, there will be long periods of uncertainty as individuals are identified for senior positions and then face an uncertain Senate confirmation.
5. White House Staff Exodus: Some high profile announcements have already been made (e.g., press secretary), but unless a senior member of the staff wants to stay through the end of the first term, it’s time to go. I’m guessing many will do so. While he may not appreciate the staff around him, The President and his family cannot really run the Office of the President on their own. A shake-up will leave a long period of readjustment and uncertainty about policy directions.
6. Presidential Isolation: it is not unusual for a President to withdraw as people around him rotate out and others he knows less well come in. They trust fewer people and have more confidence in their own abilities. Look for people with perspective and experience to have greater difficulty being heard or even being present in the Oval Office.
7. Election 2020 Starts Now: there will be no pause as elected officials move from this election cycle to the next. Republican officeholders are going to be living in fear that their party will not recover. Many will decide not to run again, but those that decide to run will run scared. And, there will likely be more Democrats lining up to seek the presidency than we have seen in some time, meaning that the agenda in Washington will increasingly become part of presidential election strategies hatched by Republicans and Democrats. Of course, we have not even contemplated how the President will characterize the election outcome and what it means for the Republican party.
8. Mueller’s Investigation: this has always been a wild card, but all signs point to more indictments and charges. If the investigation doesn’t reach to the President, it seems destined to come close. Those in the White House could become besieged at any moment with major damage control… and, possibly, major damage!
9. Media Relations: the term as it pertains to the White House seems like an oxymoron. Whatever the outcome of the election, the battle for finding the truth will only escalate. While it is hard to imagine how things could get worse, the path to a presidential election will bring only more stress to the relationship between the media and the White House spin doctors… sadly, media relations will remain rhetorically hostile.
10. An Empowered Electorate: so this final point may be the most interesting of them all, and it goes to just who succeeds in motivating voter blocks more successfully in this election. Look for extraordinary efforts to build voter bases for 2020 that just might deliver one of the largest election turnouts in recent history.
I think all we can do now is watch the returns and then fasten our collective seatbelts as we enter a whole new and, hopefully, brave world.
Craig Fuller served four years in the White House as assistant to President Reagan for Cabinet Affairs, followed by four years as chief of staff to Vice President George H.W. Bush. Having been engaged in five presidential campaigns and run public affairs firms and associations in Washington, D.C., he now resides on the Eastern Shore with his wife Karen.
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