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By the Way, How Do You Predict the Behavior of Rockfish or Crabs? By Al Hammond

August 10, 2020 by Al Hammond Leave a Comment

Kenny Rose is an applied mathematician and fisheries scientist by training and has worked on many ecosystems throughout the US and internationally. He has spent years studying the San Francisco Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, and now focuses on the Chesapeake Bay at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science’s Horn Point Laboratory near Cambridge, Maryland.

Mathematical models—like those used for weather forecasts or to predict storm tracks—are key to studying and predicting many environmental phenomena. They typically take in data about the current state of the environment, then use computerized versions of physical laws to calculate expected outcomes. And even though nature sometimes doesn’t behave as predicted, it’s still useful to know that rain is expected or if the tide in the Bay is going to be high.

Dr. Kenny Rose, the France-Merrick Professor in Sustainable Ecosystem Restoration at Horn Point Laboratory of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science

But what if there are no laws that apply, only some fuzzy rules of thumb? For example, what if you want to model the behavior of fish—not just how they move around, but how they respond to warmer water or a depleted food supply? For that matter, how would you model the behavior of people or of corporations? There are no physical laws for that, but scientists have developed a different type of model for just such purposes. Called an “agent-based model” or sometimes a “complex adaptive system” model, it creates a virtual world that can track the interaction of large numbers of agents (rockfish or blue crabs or people) with each other and with the environment around them. Such models depend on assumptions about the nature of those interactions, and if those are reasonably accurate, then what emerges from the model calculations is predictions or simulations of population-level behavior—for example, will there be plenty of crabs this year? Or how stable and resilient is the Bay’s rockfish population in the face of warming and more acidic waters (because of higher carbon dioxide levels) as a result of a changing climate.

Such predictions—often based on hundreds or thousands of simulations with varying assumptions—can be compared to observed behavior to test and refine the modeling assumptions. For many fish species in Chesapeake Bay, it turns out that the critical assumptions have to do with survival while they are larvae and juveniles (before they become full adults): most very young fish don’t survive. Is that because of food availability; or does it depend on whether they live near the bottom of the bay or near the surface; or does it depend on their risk of being eaten before they can reproduce? So modelers test these and other assumptions, while also testing such variables as temperature, salinity, and the type of bottom (does it offer good ways for a young fish to hide?).

These types of virtual world models have been used for simulating such things as how fish group together, population size under different harvesting plans, interactions between different species, and the sustainability of ecosystems. At the Horn Point Laboratory, one on-going application of such models is to simulate how fish group together—known as schooling—and to test different ways to set up underwater cameras (also simulated), in order to get the most accurate estimate of the number of fish. That’s because fisheries scientists are increasingly using waterproof cameras located on the ocean bottom or on underwater drones to track populations in locations that are difficult to sample directly. But calibrating what the cameras show is tricky, because they may miss some when underwater visibility is poor or count the same fish multiple times. So Rose helped build an agent-based model of fish movements and is using that virtual world to calculate correction factors for the camera and ideas about better camera placement, leading to more accurate population counts.

Understanding how fish school is important for a number of reasons, not just for improving population counts. For juveniles, being in a crowd is one of the best defenses against being eaten. And from a fisheries perspective, schools are often where the best fishing is to be found.

The models do provide insights into population size and the food webs that support it, which lets fishery managers know whether they should allow larger harvests or increase protections in a given location. And because rockfish move around—they might come into the Bay as youngsters, then leave later on—rockfish and many species are managed at regional (mid-Atlantic) scale. Crabs move outside the Bay as well.

This map identifies spawning ground sites for Shad or River herring across the Chesapeake Bay. River herring migrate from saltwater to freshwater to spawn, as do Striped bass, Hickory and American shad, Blueback herring, Alewife, White perch, and Yellow perch. Map produced by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources

Oysters, on the other hand, stay put and are managed locally. Another ongoing effort at the Horn Point laboratory, led by Dr. Elizabeth North, uses modeling to understand how temperature, salinity and circulation patterns in the Bay affect the transport of oyster larvae. That depends initially on models of tides and currents, which can be calculated from physical laws. Then agent-based models build on those results to help the scientists understand where the larvae end up—and where they don’t. This knowledge can be used to ensure oyster larvae have the right habitat in the right location to settle and grow.

The bottom line is that the health of the Bay and of its fisheries now depend on careful management, and today’s management practices in turn depend increasingly on detailed data collection and on sophisticated modeling—including modeling the behavior of fish. So remember to give a mental “thank you” to the modelers the next time you host a crab feast.

Al Hammond was trained as a scientist (Stanford, Harvard) but became a distinguished science journalist, reporting for Science (a leading scientific journal) and many other technical and popular magazines and on a daily radio program for CBS. He subsequently founded and served as editor-in-chief for 4 national science-related publications as well as editor-in-chief for the United Nation’s bi-annual environmental report. More recently, he has written, edited, or contributed to many national assessments of scientific research for federal science agencies. Dr. Hammond makes his home in Chestertown on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.

Maryland Environmentalists Jubilant Over Passage of Public Lands Bill

July 24, 2020 by Maryland Matters

Major environmental legislation sailed through Congress Wednesday while the nation’s political leaders were stuck in intense negotiations over the contours of a fifth COVID-19 relief package.

Maryland environmental groups were jubilant about a bill that would provide $9.5 billion over five years to pay down the National Park Service’s maintenance backlog and provide permanent funding at $900 million per year for the Land and Water Conservation Fund, which supports natural areas and recreation activities.

Assateague Island National Seashore is among the places in Maryland that will benefit from the new public lands legislation. National Park Service photo

The legislation was sponsored by the late U.S. Rep. John Lewis of Georgia, the civil rights giant who died last week. During a debate on the measure on the House floor Wednesday, Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) said Lewis “understood that conserving America’s great outdoors and public spaces went part in parcel with protecting the legacy of civil rights.”

The House approved the bill by a vote of 310-107. The bill had broad bipartisan support, with 228 Democrats and 81 Republicans voting for it. Maryland’s lone Republican congressman, Andrew P. Harris, was a “no” vote.

The U.S. Senate adopted the measure in June by a 73-25 vote.

President Trump is expected to sign the bill when it arrives on his desk.

“I am calling on Congress to send me a Bill that fully and permanently funds the LWCF and restores our National Parks,” Trump tweeted in March. “When I sign it into law, it will be HISTORIC for our beautiful public lands.”

Trump and environmental groups are rarely in alignment, but that was the case Wednesday.

“The passage of the Great American Outdoors Act is a significant victory for Maryland,” said Maryland League of Conservation Voters Executive Director Kim Coble. “The bill guarantees that Marylanders will have access to clean, safe, and healthy parks for years to come.”

The Great American Outdoors Act will allow the National Park Service to restore resources that are deteriorating due to age and inconsistent funding. In Maryland alone, park sites that welcome nearly 7 million visitors and support more than 2,900 jobs each year require $244 million in repairs, national studies have shown.

The now-permanent LWCF funding is significant for Maryland: The state has received $231.8 million in LWCF funding over the past five decades, protecting places such as the Assateague Island National Seashore, Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge, Monocacy National Battlefield and the C&O Canal National Historic Park.

Maryland also uses LWCF to leverage additional funds, such as state Program Open Space money that funds hundreds of facilities and creates access to local and state parks.

Kate Breimann, state director of Environment Maryland, called the federal commitment “a critical investment.”

“This bipartisan victory shows that Americans are united in the commitment to protecting our public lands and open spaces,” she said.

But Utah Rep. Rob Bishop, the top Republican on the House Natural Resources Committee, objected to the bill, in part because it would add $17 billion to the national debt amid a pandemic.

The legislation also drew stiff opposition from oil-state Republicans because it would draw funds from fees from oil and gas extraction on federal lands and offshore drilling activity.

In an earlier statement, U.S. Rep. Garret Graves of Louisiana called the legislation an “activist, thinly veiled money laundering scheme” that would “accelerate the destruction of 4 million acres of America’s Mississippi River Delta coastal wetlands.”

The most outspoken critic of the bill in the Senate was also from Louisiana. U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Republican, said the bill diverts money away from the Gulf, where people live, and toward national parks, where they vacation — an indication of misplaced priorities. Our country has much greater priorities, he said, “than potholes and broken toilets in national parks.”

Election year politics

The bill was seen as a way to boost the reelection chances of lead sponsor Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado and Sen. Steve Daines of Montana — two of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents running for reelection, as rated by the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections.

Overall, eight of the nine most vulnerable GOP incumbents backed the bill. Texas Sen. John Cornyn was the exception.

Maryland sites needed more than $244 million for deferred maintenance projects, according to a 2018 National Parks Service report that pegged the national backlog at $11.9 billion.

An analysis by the U.S. Department of the Interior estimated direct spending and related economic impacts of the bill would add 100,000 “job-years” to the national economy.

Polls show funding the National Park Service and the Land and Water Conservation Fund are overwhelmingly and increasingly popular. In a Pew Charitable Trusts poll last year, 82% of respondents said they wanted Congress to pay up to $1.3 billion to address the National Parks backlog, up from 76% in 2018.

Though popular, the issue may have little effect at the ballot box, said Barbara Norrander, a political scientist at the University of Arizona. Voters are focused on other issues and, in a presidential election year, are likely to base their votes for Senate on their party preference at the top of the ticket, she said.

“Even in normal times, most Americans do not pay much attention to what happens inside of Congress,” Norrander wrote in an email. “[W]ith the current situation, most voters would be more concerned about COVID-19 and the economy.”

Some environmental groups are still wary of the conservation records of some of the GOP senators who voted for the bill.

“They voted right on this one, but it won’t erase their terrible environmental records,” said Hannah Blatt, the communications manager for the Environmental Defense Fund’s political advocacy arm, EDF Action. “They have done nothing to stop the administration’s relentless attacks on our air and water.

By Allison Stevens and Jacob Fischler. Josh Kurtz contributed to this report.

The Transportation Revolution by Al Hammond

June 8, 2020 by Al Hammond

If you are thinking of buying a new car or light truck anytime soon, you may want to reconsider. That’s because conventional gasoline-powered vehicles are about to become technologically obsolete and economically uncompetitive—which means it will become progressively harder to find gas stations to refuel them, mechanics to repair them, or buyers for used vehicles when you want to sell.

One cause of this transformation is the impending surge in the production of electric cars and trucks by every major manufacturer. These electric models—apart from the cost of the batteries that power them—are already cheaper to produce (many fewer parts) and maintain than those with internal combustion engines. The batteries themselves are about to see dramatic improvements that will increase their driving range on a single charge to 600 miles or more, reduce the time required to recharge them, increase their lifetime, and lower their cost—which in turn will make electric vehicles less expensive to buy and far less expensive to operate than comparable gasoline-powered models. Indeed, Tony Seba, a Stanford University economist, has published estimates that electric vehicles will soon be 90% cheaper to operate than gas-powered cars, taking into account the cost of fuel and repairs over the lifetime of the vehicle. All these changes add up to one thing: gas-powered vehicles may no longer make economic sense.

A second major technology-driven shift is the coming scale-up of autonomous or “self-driving” vehicles that use multiple sensors to detect roads, traffic signals, driving conditions, and other vehicles, combined with artificial intelligence tools to interpret this data instantaneously and guide the vehicle accordingly. That will save lives: human drivers make mistakes that cause nearly 40,000 fatalities and 4 million injuries per year in the U.S. alone. The proliferation of self-driving vehicles will also mean that people can potentially use their travel time to do other things.

More importantly, many people won’t need or want to buy a car at all—they will summon a self-driving vehicle to take them where they want to go. This revolution—often called Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS)—will happen in urban areas first, reducing traffic congestion and air pollution. Already Waymo (owned by Google) has driven autonomous vehicles over 20 million miles without any accidents and has completed 100,000 self-driving rides in its test city, Phoenix, Arizona; it is buying another 60,000 self-driving vehicles to use there, which may enable it to provide half of all the local travel needs for that city. Waymo is not alone: a company called Aptiv has also completed 100,000 self-driving rides in Las Vegas and is starting service in several other U.S. cities.

For those of us that live in small towns or rural areas and can’t imagine not having a vehicle in the driveway or carport, the TaaS transformation may seem irrelevant, but we will nonetheless be affected by it. Among other changes, TaaS combined with electric vehicles will disrupt the car insurance business, lower the revenue that governments get from gasoline taxes, save families that can avoid buying a car lots of money, and lower the cost of shipping goods (because of self-driving trucks). TaaS will change the value of homes and other real estate (imagine what can be built on all those soon-to-be-empty parking lots, which in cities like Los Angeles take up nearly one-third of the space, or how much less attractive a house outside the range of a TaaS service might be to a potential buyer). It will also enable expanded home delivery services for packages or food by self-driving electric vehicles or battery-powered drones.

If all this seems too abstract, consider the following: Consumer Reports estimates it costs about $15,000 to fill up a Jeep Liberty over five years, if you drive 12,000 miles per year; the electricity to power an electric Jeep Liberty is estimated to cost less than $1,600 over the same period. And fuel savings are just the beginning. The drivetrain in a conventional car has as many as 2,000 moving parts, compared to as few as 20 in an electric car. Electric vehicles have motors, not engines, so they don’t need to shift gears… and they don’t need oil, spark plugs, air filters, coolant, or transmission fluid. A conventional car’s engine might last 150,000 miles before it needs rebuilding, but electric car motors can last 600,000 miles or more. That’s why some electric car makers warranty the drive unit for up to 8 years, with unlimited miles—something no gas-powered car can offer.

So if you could buy essentially the same car, except cheaper and 90 percent less costly to use and maintain, quieter to drive, capable of much more rapid acceleration and greater pulling power, as well as likely to last several times as long, which would you buy? That’s why many experts think that electric vehicles will account for more than half of all new cars and trucks sold in the U.S. within 5 years. And because of TaaS, the total number of cars sold is likely to be far lower—and most cities are likely to have fleets of electric, self-driving cars that can each deliver 100,000 miles of rides a year with little maintenance.

While all that’s good for us as transportation users, it means disruptive change for quite a few segments of the economy. Professional drivers—chauffeurs, cab drivers, truckers—may simply disappear. Demand for mechanics and replacement auto parts will drop. Insurance companies will have fewer accidents to pay for and will have to lower premiums, losing revenue. We won’t need as many gas stations and truck stops—electric cars will mostly recharge overnight at home and self-driving trucks don’t need to stop for food and rest. Oil companies will suffer. With less traffic on the roads, driving (or being driven by your car) may replace short-haul air traffic and the hassles of airports, to the detriment of the airline industry. On longer trips, you could simply sleep in your car’s fully reclining seats while it drives you, so roadside hotels and motels may face problems as well. And as TaaS scales up, the sales of auto manufacturers will drop; many may not survive.

That’s what disruptive technological change looks like. It happened before when cars replaced horses; now it’s happening again as electric vehicles with self-driving capabilities replace conventional cars and trucks.

Kent Conservation and Preservation Alliance: Just Say Maybe No Data Centers on Farmland

May 21, 2020 by Dave Wheelan

Over the years, the Spy has interviewed Janet Christensen-Lewis, Judy Gifford, and Liz Watson many times on Kent County land use issues. From solar farms to wind turbines, these board members of the Kent Conservation and Preservation Alliance have been remarkably successful in their arguments against these alternative energy solutions to protect the county’s rare agricultural landscapes.

And this time, they are raising the flag of grave concern about the prospects of ag land being converted into data centers. As the need grows for large internet storage facilities, as well as the open space needed to accommodate them, the Kent Conservation and Preservation Alliance will be making it very clear at the next Kent County Commissioners meeting (conference phone call) that approval of that use would have dire consequences.

The Spy Zoomed with Janet, Judy, and Liz earlier today to get their point of view.

This video is approximately twelve minutes in length. The County Commissioners hearing on this bill Tuesday May 26 at 10 am. The number to call for the hearing is 1-872-239-8359 ID#615 347 570. Written testimony will be accepted until noon on May 22. Email kentcounty@kentgov.org.

Coronavirus Quarantine Clears the Air But Likely Not For Long

May 6, 2020 by Bay Journal

Human life has been on a near-universal lockdown since the coronavirus pandemic first gripped the country in late March. It has been a crushing blow to the economy, but another sector has reaped a windfall: the environment.

Power plants eased off electricity production. People stayed home more, and many cars disappeared from the roads. As a result, air pollution is down sharply, and new records are being set for air quality across the Chesapeake Bay region.

Researchers are normally cautious about ascribing an observed phenomenon to a specific cause so soon. But many say the current situation is unique.

“We’ve seen this immense decrease in passenger traffic, anywhere from 40–50% depending on where you are in the state,” said Jeremy Hoffman, chief scientist at the Science Museum of Virginia. It’s important to note that weather plays a huge role in air quality, he added, but “that huge drop in traffic coinciding with this huge drop in [nitrogen dioxide] in the air is, to me, a pretty convincing relationship.”

Nitrogen dioxide, or NO2, is emitted by cars, trucks, power plants and anything else that burns fossil fuel. Fuel combustion also is a major driver of ozone and particulate pollution.

Where such air pollution levels are consistently high, people can suffer from asthma and an increased risk of developing respiratory infections, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Emerging research has shown that areas with poor air quality have higher death rates from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

Air pollution also makes it more difficult to clean up the Chesapeake Bay. The state-federal Chesapeake Bay Program estimates that air pollution contributes about one-third of the nitrogen found in the Bay, fueling algae blooms that kill aquatic life.

Emissions of nitrogen oxides and other fuel-related pollutants have shrunk significantly over the past two decades. But scientists say they’ve rarely seen anything like the plunge in recent weeks.

The average amount of air pollution from nitrogen dioxide in March 2020, while travel — and the related burning of fossil fuels — was greatly reduced to address the outbreak of COVID-19. (NASA GSFC)

The average amount of air pollution from nitrogen dioxide during the month of March 2015-2019. Nitrogen dioxide gets into the air mostly from the burning of fossil fuels. (NASA GSFC)

Researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in Greenbelt, MD, have been tracking atmospheric dioxide since 2005, using the agency’s Aura satellite. This team’s analysis shows that March of 2020 set a record for the lowest levels of the pollutant in that month during 20 years of tracking. The amount was 30% lower than the typical March reading from 2015–19 along the Interstate 95 corridor from Washington, DC, to Boston.

Air pollution has been trending downward for years, “but this is a step-change down because of the emissions reductions we’re seeing now,” said Ryan Stauffer, a NASA research scientist who studies the atmosphere. “This is like a grand, unintended experiment in atmospheric chemistry.”

Stauffer cautions that the month’s rainy and windy weather likely lent a hand in reducing pollution levels; rain droplets attract aerosol particles as they plummet to the ground, leaving cleaner air behind. And the satellite can only measure air quality throughout entire columns of the atmosphere, so ground-level pollution, which is more likely to be generated by humans, is only part of the picture produced by the satellite.

Ground-level sensors are telling a similar story. The DC metro area has seen a string of healthy air days dating back to March 20, according to EPA monitors that detect ozone and particulate matter. As of May 3, that was 45 days and counting, shattering the region’s previous record of 22 consecutive days, Stauffer said.

Scientists don’t expect the air quality gains to be permanent. When the lockdown is lifted and fuel combustion kicks back into gear, pollution levels are likely to zoom back to pre-pandemic intensity, they say.

The event could help shed more light on how reductions in air pollution affect human health.

In one of the most cited cases in the field, researchers detected a 30% drop in ozone levels when Atlanta all but halted traffic during the 1996 Summer Olympics. Although research initially suggested fewer asthma attacks happened during the games, a follow-up study revealed no firm connections to that or other respiratory ailments, perhaps because there were too few emergency department visits to support the theory.

China’s crackdown on traffic and industrial pollution during its 2008 Summer Olympics also provided a window into the phenomenon. Scientists have variously described a reduction in premature deaths, improved cardiovascular health and higher birth weights.

But more research is needed to firm up the scientific community’s understanding of health effects, Stauffer said. He and fellow researchers have been fanning out across the DC area during the pandemic, collecting air samples in silver canisters. By studying various emission levels, the team hopes to learn whether the short-term air improvements influence pollution levels after the quarantine is lifted.

“This is not the way we want to be cutting air quality problems or reducing pollution,” Stauffer said. “Any reductions we see from the air quality will be temporary. Any impacts we see in the environment or human health, that’s yet to be seen.”

By Jeremy Cox

Long-running Chesapeake Crab Study Threatened with Shutdown

May 1, 2020 by Bay Journal

One of the longest-running scientific investigations of the Chesapeake Bay is in danger of shutting down permanently.

The Morgan State University blue crab monitoring survey has persisted for 50 years through two institutions, three financial sponsors and the evolution from paper to digital tabulation. But its funding dried up this year, and the deep financial downturn triggered by the coronavirus has cast doubt on finding an alternative source.

“Normally, we’d be getting the crab survey ready, but that’s not happening this year unfortunately,” said Tom Ihde, the fisheries ecologist at Morgan State who currently helms the study.

The coronavirus has grounded environmental research across the Chesapeake region and around the globe. Some studies are impossible to carry out without violating social-distancing protocols. Others suffered human resource shortages when university graduate students were sent home. And the future funding picture is hazy at best.

Amid this crisis within a crisis, the Morgan State crab study stands out. Its ills predate the pandemic, putting it in a tougher spot than most of the other suspended work. Meanwhile, what hangs in the balance isn’t a few months of datasets but rather a decades-long crusade that helped fishery managers resurrect the iconic species after years of decline.

Ihde said he has been trying to find other avenues to finance the work. The prospects didn’t look good before the coronavirus emerged, he said. Now, they look even worse.

“These long-term surveys are notoriously hard to keep funded, and it’s not cheap to get boats on the water or to pay for gear and staff time,” Ihde said. “We’re trying to find other ways of funding. I’ve tried quite a few, but there’s no success yet.”

The research historically has cost about $50,000 a year to conduct.

Stanley Nwakamma, an intern at Morgan State University’s Patuxent Environmental and Aquatic Research Laboratory, hoists a crab pot in 2018 while working on the facility’s long-running blue crab survey. Photo courtesy of Morgan State University

The protocol has changed little from the beginning. Once a month from June to early November, when crabs are most active, Ihde and his team bait 30 crab pots with menhaden and drop them into the Bay along the western shore in southern Maryland. The pots are divided among offshore sites near Kenwood Beach, Rocky Point and Calvert Cliffs.

The researchers return in their boat 24 hours later to record how many they caught, the size of the crustaceans and the characteristics of the water.

The study got under way in 1968. It grew out of researchers’ and environmentalists’ concerns about how a new nuclear power plant, which was then nearly a decade from opening at Calvert Cliffs, would affect crabs with its discharges of heated water.

The scientist selected to lead the study was fresh from receiving his master’s degree in biological sciences from the University of Delaware. George Abbe became the first employee of the Academy of Natural Sciences’ Estuarine Research Center on the Patuxent River.

Over the next 40 years, Abbe produced a wealth of publications — more than 150, including his oyster research and other topics. But the crab study was his obsession, colleagues say.

The crab survey would soon move beyond its initial parochial goal — the heated water turned out to be a non-factor. Along the way, the survey shaped science’s evolving understanding of the Bay’s crabs.

Sandra Shumway, a marine scientist with the University of Connecticut who knew Abbe through academic conferences and followed his work closely, called him a visionary for developing a study that stood the test of time.

“Long-term data sets are rare,” she said. “It’s only by having that long, broad picture that you really understand what the population is doing.”

In the 1990s, Abbe was one of the first scientists to warn that the once-abundant species was dwindling in the Bay. His work showed that fishermen were taking too many crabs just over the legal size limit instead of waiting for them to grow mature enough to reproduce, a phenomenon known as “growth overfishing.”

“He rang the warning bell very loudly and clearly,” Ihde said.

Abbe’s research helped inform the U.S. Commerce Department’s decision in 2008 to declare the Chesapeake crab fishery a disaster, Ihde said. The designation made watermen eligible for $75 million in federal aid. It also prompted fishery managers in Maryland and Virginia to enact harvest restrictions that have been widely credited with helping to drive the population up 60% to 594 million crabs as of 2019.

The study has weathered several changes in recent years.

In 2004, the Academy transferred the research center that housed Abbe’s work to Morgan State. Funding for the study began with Baltimore Gas & Electric, the nuclear plant’s original owner. After 15 years, it moved to the Maryland Department of Natural Resources for 30 years. The state money stopped flowing in 2011; there was no funding and no surveying for the next two years.

Abbe continued working and studying the Bay’s shellfish until shortly before his death in August 2013 at the age of 69.

Dominion Energy, which operates a liquefied natural gas plant in the area, stepped up and voluntarily funded the work from 2014 through last year. This year’s stoppage initially stemmed from a mix-up between Morgan State and Dominion over the application deadline for the funds, each side confirmed.

But the coronavirus has forced the energy company to reshuffle its priorities.

“We have halted all expenditures companywide for the foreseeable future,” said George Anas, Dominion’s external affairs manager. “It’s not that we don’t care any less [about the crab survey]. We have enjoyed working with them, and we look down the road hoping we can do some more.”

Maryland’s DNR has no plans to fund the study, agency spokesman Gregg Bortz said.

The state has conducted its own annual crab survey in conjunction with the Virginia Institute of Marine Science since 1990. It uses dredges to collect crabs during the winter.

Bortz added that the agency’s scientists prefer their method for assessing the population size because it analyzes many locations around the Bay and catches crabs of all sizes. In contrast, the Morgan State study focuses on one area and can only capture crabs that are at least a year old.

The director of what is now known as the Patuxent Environmental and Aquatic Research Laboratory insists the study can still be valuable to the state’s fishery monitoring. “Our survey can do different things and fill in some gaps,” Scott Knoche said.

For example, because it looks at female crab movements in the fall, the study can be used to predict reproduction levels for the next spring, Ihde said.

Tom Miller, a crab specialist who directs the Chesapeake Biological Laboratory at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, said the winter dredge survey supplies the best overall snapshot of the blue crab population. He helps author the annual study.

The Morgan State survey may no longer be as vital for fishery managers as it once was, but it is still useful for spotting long-range trends, Miller said.

“What’s important about it is you conduct it the same way,” he said. “If you see crabs are less abundant than they were in this pot survey, because the methods are the same, that should be a reliable indicator of changes in the overall crab population.”

Last year, the center’s staff converted decades of Abbe’s handwritten notes to digital records. Ihde has begun analyzing the voluminous dataset and hopes to dig up findings that persuade some entity to fund future field work.

A long-term study can survive a year or two without collecting new data, Ihde said. But if the delay goes on much longer, it seriously compromises the survey’s ongoing usefulness to fellow researchers and fishery managers.

“Long-term surveys like this are absolutely critical when it comes to trying to understand population changes over time, especially when the system itself is changing,” Ihde said, referring to the way climate change has led to warmer winters and shorter periods of dormancy for crabs. “It’s easy to lose sight of what things should be like. Fifty years is well beyond most people’s professional career memory.”

By Jeremy Cox

CBF and ShoreRivers Sue Trump Administration on Clean Water Rule

April 23, 2020 by Spy Desk

The Chesapeake Bay Foundation (CBF) and ShoreRivers plan to sue the Trump administration for repealing the Obama-era Clean Water Rule, which provided robust protections for wetlands and seasonal streams under the Clean Water Act, and replacing it with the dangerously weaker version published in the Federal Register today.

The new definition of Waters of the United States (WOTUS) ignores the scientific underpinnings of the 2015 Clean Water Rule and jettisons vital protections for wetlands and streams across the Bay’s 64,000 square-mile watershed. It will do the most damage in Delaware, the District of Columbia, and West Virginia, which rely entirely on federal law to protect their local waters. In Delaware alone, it would allow the destruction of nearly 200,000 acres of wetlands.

The new WOTUS rule will also be harmful in Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, and Virginia, despite those states’ additional state water protection programs, because their programs all have gaps the new rule will exacerbate. In Maryland, nontidal wetlands could lose protections, as could Pennsylvania streams that flow only in response to precipitation, known as seasonal streams. Thousands of Delmarva Bays, wetlands unique to the Delmarva Peninsula, are directly at risk as well.

As natural filters, wetlands play a crucial role helping the six watershed states and the District meet their targets for reducing nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment pollution entering the Bay and its tributaries by the 2025 deadline set by the Chesapeake Clean Water Blueprint.

Wetlands soak up excess water from the more frequent and intense storms and floods caused by climate change, which regularly batter the watershed’s farms, low-lying coastal communities, and rapidly disappearing Bay islands. Wetlands also protect and recharge drinking water supplies.

By providing irreplaceable habitat for fish, native wildlife, and migratory birds, wetlands support the region’s $65 billion outdoor recreation industry and the more than half a million jobs it provides.

In response to publication of the new WOTUS rule, Jon Mueller, CBF’s Vice President of Litigation, said:

“The Trump administration’s new WOTUS rule is an astounding attack on the Clean Water Act and another egregious example of its destructive disregard for science. By slashing the number of waterways in the watershed protected from pollution under the Clean Water Act, this damaging rule puts the entire cleanup effort in jeopardy. 

“Wetlands are vital to the health and resilience of the Chesapeake Bay and the 111,000 miles of local creeks, streams, and rivers from Cooperstown, NY, to Virginia Beach that feed into it. They are also critical to the region’s $65 billion outdoor recreation industry and the more than half a million jobs it supports. 

“The stakes are too high to allow this dangerous rule to stand. CBF has worked tirelessly for years to protect the Clean Water Rule and prevent a weaker version from replacing it. We will be just as relentless as we take our fight to protect the Clean Water Act and the watershed’s wetlands to court.”  

Jeff Horstman, Executive Director of ShoreRivers, said:

“Vast areas of streams and wetlands on the Delmarva will lose vital protections if this irresponsible regulatory roll back is permitted. By repealing the Clean Water Rule, the current administration is allowing more pollution to enter our iconic rivers and Bay, which are beginning to show signs of improvement after decades of work. We cannot allow this progress to be reversed, we must stand up for science and challenge this assault on our right to have clean water.

“It is a fact that polluted rivers will cost us more in the end than any short-term economic gain garnered from allowing industries to pollute. We must stop the cycle of allowing short term economic interests and corporate greed to destroy our natural resources.”

For more than half a century, the Chesapeake Bay Foundation has led a landmark effort to save the Chesapeake Bay—a national treasure on which the health and wellbeing of nearly 20 million people and 3,600 species of plants and animals depend. Grounded in science and focused on local waterways, we educate tens of thousands of people each year, advocate for better public policy, hold governments and polluters accountable, and perform essential hands-on restoration.

ShoreRivers protects and restores Maryland’s Eastern Shore waterways through science-based advocacy, restoration, and education. Our Riverkeepers monitor water quality, advocate for clean water laws, and work with local governments to enforce existing laws. Our Education team provides critical environmental programming to public school students and teachers across four counties. And our Agriculture & Restoration team specializes in implementing innovative, effective practices that improve both environmental health and farm productivity. Through all our programs, ShoreRivers works across the Delmarva to increase awareness of pollution problems and to inspire action to achieve healthy waterways.

Coronavirus Closes Bay Region Beaches, Some Park Facilities

April 1, 2020 by Bay Journal

The coronavirus pandemic that’s keeping many people inside across the Chesapeake Bay watershed is also limiting some outdoor recreational opportunities — closing campgrounds, playgrounds, public beaches and some parks. In Maryland, it’s also putting a crimp in boating.

Authorities issued stay-at-home orders in Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, the District of Columbia, New York and West Virginia. In Pennsylvania, a growing number of counties joined their ranks. But such decrees still allow ample opportunities for getting outside to hike, bike, jog, fish or hunt — or just take in a little fresh air and nature. Following is a state-by-state rundown.

Maryland

The stay-at-home order issued March 30 by Gov. Larry Hogan specifically permits “outdoor exercise activities, such as walking, hiking, running, or biking,” as long as people maintain a 6-foot separation from each other.

But recreational boating is not permitted. That’s a bitter pill in a state with more than 200,000 registered power- and sailboats. Boaters took to social media to complain, and at least one started an online petition asking Hogan to lift the ban. One signer argued that boating is “good for mental health,” while others maintained it fit the spirit of “social distancing.”

Amid a flurry of questions, the state Department of Natural Resources issued new guidelines on Tuesday that say “limited” hunting and recreational fishing are permitted, including by boat, if pursued to obtain food. That prompted at least one boater to suggest he’d be sure to have a fishing rod aboard.

The DNR also specified that kayaking and paddle boarding are acceptable forms of outdoor exercise, if practiced with proper separation. Though not specifically mentioned in DNR guidance, canoeing is also permitted, according to DNR spokesman Gregg Bortz, providing that whoever else is in the canoe is someone you’re living with.

Delaware

Delaware’s state parks remain open with their fees waived, but its state-operated beaches are closed for all but exercise and surf-fishing under Gov. Jim Carney’s stay-at-home orders.

Those parks were all but shuttered to out-of-state visitors. A week after Carney ordered anyone coming into Delaware to self-quarantine for 14 days, he extended the policy March 30 to apply to those heading into the state to fish, hunt or visit a park.

Playgrounds have been closed in parks throughout the region to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus. Photo by Jeremy Cox/Bay Journal News Service

Surf-fishing, an activity known for packing beaches during warm weather, is limited to people fishing from vehicles with a cap of two people from the same household. Vehicles must be parked at least 20 yards apart, according to the Department of Natural Resource and Environmental Control.

“This change is designed to allow a source of food and a bit of safely distant recreation, but it is not intended to allow the normal type of surf-fishing we see with groups of people engaged in non-fishing activities. The beaches are still not a place for numbers of people engaged in social activities,” DNREC Secretary Shawn Garvin said.

All state parks playgrounds, campsites and park offices are closed. Any visitors must practice social distancing. Upstate trout season remains open in seven designated streams.

Pennsylvania

Thirty-three counties are under stay-at-home orders, but residents are still permitted to engage in outdoor activities such as walking, hiking or running, as long as they keep their distance from others.

State parks and state forests remain open but all facilities, such as rest rooms, pavilions, and campgrounds, are closed. For details and updates, go here.

The Fish and Boat Commission did delay the early start of trout season in Southeastern Pennsylvania to coincide with an April 18 opening day in the rest of the state. Stream stocking was accelerated, without the assistance of volunteers. For more info, go here.

Virginia

Gov. Ralph Northam ordered all Virginians to stay home but included “engaging in outdoor activities, including for exercise,” among the exceptions. He didn’t address boating, but said generally that individuals using outdoor spaces, “whether on land or on water,” must stay at least 6 feet away from each other, unless the others are family or household members or caretakers.

Virginia state parks have closed visitor centers, cabins, campgrounds and restrooms, but trails and outdoor spaces are still open for day use. For details, see here.

Northam also declared a moratorium on most private campground reservations and closed all public beaches except for exercising and fishing. For more info, go here.

District of Columbia

As in neighboring states, District residents have been ordered to stay home, unless they have some “essential” purpose. They may venture out to engage in “certain authorized recreational activities.” The list includes: “walking, hiking, running, dog-walking, biking, rollerblading, scootering, skateboarding, playing tennis, golfing, gardening, and other activities where all participants comply with social distancing requirements and there is no person-to-person contact.” It’s unclear whether fishing or any type of boating is acceptable.

New York

With a statewide stay-at-home order, New York park officials encouraged people to get outdoors but to #RecreateLocal.

The Department of Environmental Conservation created the hashtag in a campaign urging people to keep visits short and not travel too far from home. “To keep these places safe and healthy for everyone, we need to adjust the ways we enjoy our parks,” State Parks Commissioner Erik Kulleseid said.

Like other states, New York has waived fees at state parks but closed playgrounds, canceled all public programs and shuttered nature centers and other facilities. All state-operated campgrounds are closed through at least April 30; anyone with a reservation in the meantime is being given refunds. For more info, go here.

The state urged people to keep their distance from each other while outdoors and avoid group activities, such as basketball and football. If crowds are forming at a park, people should go somewhere else, officials said. Fishing and boating were allowed, but officials urged boaters to stay at least six feet from each other.

West Virginia

As in other states, Gov. Jim Justice’s stay-at-home order specifically allows walking, hiking, biking, jogging and just being “in nature for exercise,” with proper separation from others.

All state campgrounds are closed through April 30. All restrooms are closed, and all events canceled.

Day-use areas, such as hiking trails and fishing lakes, continue to be open for public use. The state has waived fishing license fees through April 24 for state residents. Under Justice’s order, no outdoor gatherings could exceed 10 people and they must stay at least 6 feet apart. Justice also closed private campgrounds to out-of-state travelers.

National parks

National parks remain mostly open, but they are coming under increasing pressure to close after reporting that seven employees have confirmed cases of the coronavirus.

The Park Service has closed popular parks such as Great Smoky Mountains, Yellowstone and Grand Teton, plus dozens of other sites to reduce risks of spreading illness. But many more remain open, and the government has waived entrance fees.

The chair of the Coalition to Protect America’s National Parks, Phil Francis, wrote Interior Secretary David Bernhardt on Tuesday urging him to close the parks to protect employees and help slow the spread of COVID-19.

With 54 sites in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the National Park Service says it is modifying operations on a park-by-park basis during the pandemic. It is basing those decision on guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as well as state and local health authorities, officials said.

Among the sites closed in the Bay watershed are Fort McHenry in Baltimore, the Washington Monument in the District of Columbia and the Harriet Tubman Underground Railroad National Historical Park on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.

At other sites, parks have suspended visitor services, with exceptions for law enforcement and trash removal.

Among the changes announced in the Bay region’s national parks:

• The Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania National Military Park in Virginia canceled its Illumination of the Fredericksburg National Cemetery scheduled over Memorial Day weekend. The event typically draws 4,000-9,000 visitors a year. The parks also curtailed services to only those considered essential.

• National parks in the greater Washington area remain open but most indoors facilities, roads, playgrounds and other facilities are closed. In the District’s popular Rock Creek Park, four iconic park fountains are closed.

• At the Gettysburg National Military Park in Pennsylvania, all non-life sustaining operations are shut down, including restrooms, museum and observation towers.

• The Shenandoah National Park in Virginia remains open but has closed several popular trails and parking lots because they were attracting large crowds. The annual openings of its lodges had been delayed until May 21.

Appalachian Trail

Trailhead facilities and other access points to the Appalachian National Scenic Trail have been shut down in the George Washington and Jefferson National Forests in Virginia to prevent groups from congregating.

After multiple sections of the popular footpath from Maine to Georgia drew large crowds in late March, the Appalachian Trail Conservancy issued an appeal to hikers to stay away until the risks of spreading COVID-19 to others has reduced significantly.

National forests

National forests remain open, but many campgrounds and facilities are closed. The George Washington and Jefferson Forests in Virginia are still open for “dispersed camping and other activities that support social distancing and small groups,” according to a Forest Service release. For details on what’s open where, go here.

By Timothy B. Wheeler, Jeremy Cox, and Ad Crable.

Climate Study Predicts Heavier Rains, Deeper Floodwaters on Eastern Shore

March 14, 2020 by Bay Journal

Climate change will fuel heavier downpours and deeper floodwaters on Maryland’s Eastern Shore, according to one of the first detailed looks at changing rainfall patterns at the local level in the mid-Atlantic.

The new report, a collaboration between the University of Maryland and Eastern Shore Land Conservancy, estimates rainfall totals and intensity for five towns on the Mid and Upper shores. It predicts that by the 2040s, a 100-year storm will dump an additional 0.5-inch to 1.5-inches of rainfall over 24 hours, depending on the location.

That might not sound like much of a difference. But when it comes to planning for new roads, drainage ditches and other types of infrastructure, it is, said Jim Bass, manager of the conservancy’s coastal resilience program.

Jim Bass, of the Eastern Shore Land Conservancy’s coastal resilience program, stands in the rain at the conservancy’s office in Easton, MD. He said that the rural towns represented in a new Eastern Shore study face a bigger challenge, than most because their public works staffs and budgets are smaller than most of their counterparts. Photo by Dave Harp/Bay Journal News Service

“This was a great opportunity to bring some specificity to this phenomenon that everyone agrees is going on,” he said. “You can’t plan for what you don’t know.”

Many coastal communities across the country are struggling to get ready for rising seas, greater storm frequency and other climate-related impacts. The rural towns represented in the Eastern Shore study face a bigger challenge, Bass said, because their public works staffs and budgets are smaller than most of their counterparts.

In anticipation, his organization formed the Eastern Shore Climate Adaptation Partnership in 2016. The network’s six participating counties and three municipalities work to share costs and resources as they plan for climate change. Their goal, according to the partnership’s website, is to create “America’s Most Resilient Region.”

The rainfall study, funded by a $60,000 grant from the New York-based Rauch Foundation, brings a level of scientific understanding to those communities that many larger cities still don’t have, its backers say.

Climate scientists typically use broad brush strokes when predicting rainfall patterns decades into the future, said Kaye Brubaker, a University of Maryland researcher who co-authored the report. Even with the aid of supercomputers, they can only pin down results to square-shaped blobs with boundary lines stretching more than 30 miles apart.

Brubaker and her team took just such information from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program and used a statistical process called “downscaling” to make forecasts at a more-precise scale.

“It’s almost like zooming in onto an image,” she said. “As you zoom out, you see very coarse pixels, and when you zoom in the pixels get finer and finer.”

The study forecasts rainfall for the period between 2041 and 2070, assuming a scenario in which relatively little is done to combat global greenhouse gas emissions. For a 100-year storm — the sort with a 1% chance of occurring during any given year — the study foresees the following rainfall totals over a 24-hour period:

• Elkton: 9.3 inches (1.6 inches greater than the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration currently charts for such storms in that community)
• Denton: 9.9 inches (1.2 inches greater)
• Cambridge: 10.1 inches (1 inch greater)
• Easton: 10 inches (1 inch greater)
• Centreville: 9.2 inches (0.5-inch greater)

Brubaker said the labels used to describe storms can be misleading. A 100-year storm can strike more than once every 100 years; to say it only has a 1% chance of arising per year is better, but it’s still possible for such ferocious storms to pop up once every few years or even within days of each other.

“It’s like you’re rolling a 100-sided die. Your probability of coming up with a 1 is one in 100. But there is a possibility that you could roll it two times in a row and a 1 would come up,” Brubaker said.

Those labels, though, are critical for engineers trying to decide how high to build bridges and how wide to dig stormwater ponds. If the calculations for a newly constructed highway don’t account for the shifting definition of a 100-year storm, it may be in danger of flooding more often in the future, Brubaker said.

“If the rain falls slowly, it can trickle off somewhere,” she said. But “if the rain falls intensely very fast, where’s it going to go? It’s going to pile up in your pipes and on your street.”

Another symptom of climate change — rising seas — could complicate things for local planners, Brubaker said. If coastal areas become inundated by higher tides, it will be more difficult for rainfall-driven flooding to drain away.

Brian Lightner, the zoning administrator for Cecil County in the state’s northeast corner, said the new rainfall totals will help his department develop even more localized computer models, which he hopes to use to plan stormwater projects.

“Local governments are always thinking about where we can do stormwater retrofits,” he said. “With our flood vulnerabilities being predicted, [we’ll be] looking where we can try to do some restoration to reduce some of that impact.”

Climate scientists generally agree that rainfall will continue increasing in the Chesapeake Bay region, but projections at the local level have only begun to trickle in. The Maryland Commission on Climate Change said in a 2008 report, for example, that winter rainfall amounts could increase up to 12% by 2090, but that information applied statewide.

A 2015 analysis compiled for the District of Columbia’s Department of Energy and Environment looked at a variety of storm scenarios, finding greater intensity and frequency with each. For instance, it showed that the number of days per year with 1 inch of rainfall would increase from an average of 10 to 13 by the 2080s.

In Virginia Beach, a 2018 study suggested that 100-year storms would typically produce 13.3 inches of rainfall over the span of 24 hours by 2075, up from the historical average of 9.4 inches. Such results prompted the report’s author, the Dewberry consulting firm, to recommend that the city increase rainfall intensities by 20% in its design calculations.

In its report, the Eastern Shore Land Conservancy lays out several policy recommendations of its own, emphasizing the use of “green infrastructure,” such as rain gardens and wetlands, to absorb additional water.

It is the second climate change report produced by the organization in as many years. Its sea-level rise study last year estimated a 6-foot increase on the Shore, a swell that would put nearly 6,000 buildings at risk of becoming flooded.

Brubaker said that her use of a higher-emissions scenario was a feature of the study, not a fault. It is better to plan for a worse scenario and wind up with dry roads than to hope for the best and end up under water, she said.

“I think we all need to pay attention to what we’re doing to the planet,” she added. “This [analysis] is a hint of what global-scale change might be bringing to our neighborhood.”

By Jeremy Cox

Shore Ecosystem: A Chat on Eco-Resilience with QAC’s Amy Moredock

March 10, 2020 by Dave Wheelan

The word “resilience” has many meanings in today’s contemporary society but it is particularly useful when defining an Eastern Shore county’s preparation for the sometimes catastrophic impacts of 100-year-old storms and sea surges.

Amy Moredock would know. With only two years of experience as Kent County’s planning officer when Hurricane Isabel hit Rock Hall in 2003, Amy saw first hand the devastating results of these events, but also how important is for local governments to anticipate their impact on the most basic of services and commerce.

Now the principal planner for Queen Anne’s County Planning and Zoning, Amy talks about that experience and the importance of a coordinated strategy, including her work with the Eastern Shore Climate Adaptation Partnership, to, as a dictionary would define it, as increasing our region’s ecosystem “capacity to recover quickly from difficulties.”

This video is approximately nine minutes in length. For more information about the Eastern Shore Climate Adaptation Partnership please go here, and for Queen Anne’s County Planning and Zoning please go here.

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