Highlights of a comprehensive Harris Poll on where Americans’ perceptions are regarding the economy

There is an old saying in Washington, D.C. that “perception is reality.”

When it comes to the economy, this describes one of two major problems facing the Biden Administration. What people think about the economy – it’s not good – establishes their thoughts on what remains the top national issue for voters in 2024. How people answer that troubling question, “Are you better off,” is based on perceptions that are mostly wrong.

And, if that’s not bad enough, the second problem makes it worse. Two out of three Americans according to the Harris survey no longer know who they can trust when it comes to economic information.

So, while the President of the United States continues to hold the most significant bully pulpit around, what he says goes to an ever doubting audience. This makes perception, to the extent it is wrong, extremely difficult to change in the time remaining between now and the Election Day in November.

I will share the survey results below, but before you read the results take two minutes and test your perception. In a very clever interactive quiz, you get to share your perceptions across a few important economic metrics. Warning: feedback is immediate!

Informative, I hope.

Here’s what the recent Harris Poll discovered (full article).

• • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.
  • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
  • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
  • 72%, indicated they think inflation is increasing. In reality, the rate of inflation has fallen sharply from its post-Covid peak of 9.1% and has been fluctuating between 3% and 4% a year.
  • In April, the inflation rate went down from 3.5% to 3.4% – far from inflation’s 40-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022 – triggering a stock market rally that pushed the Dow Jones index to a record high.
  • Unemployment has also hit historic lows, wages have been going up and consumer spending has been strong.
  • In the poll, 55% think the economy is only getting worse.
  • Republicans were much more likely to report feeling down about the economy than Democrats. The vast majority of Republicans believe that the economy is shrinking, inflation is increasing and the economy is getting worse overall. A significant but smaller percentage of Democrats, less than 40%, believed the same.
  • Something both Republicans and Democrats agree on: they don’t know who to trust when it comes to learning about the economy. In both September and May, a majority of respondents – more than 60% – indicated skepticism over economic news.
  • “What Americans are saying in this data is: ‘Economists may say things are getting better, but we’re not feeling it where I live,’” said John Gerzema, CEO of the Harris Poll. “Unwinding four years of uncertainty takes time.”

This last statement is absolutely correct, but without trust and with too little time, the task for the Biden Administration remains extremely difficult.

The full article and the quiz appear in THE GUARDIAN

Craig Fuller served four years in the White House as assistant to President Reagan for Cabinet Affairs, followed by four years as chief of staff to Vice President George H.W. Bush. Having been engaged in five presidential campaigns and running public affairs firms and associations in Washington, D.C., he now resides on the Eastern Shore and publishes DECADE SEVEN on Substack.

This commentary by Craig Fuller first appeared in DECADE SEVEN.

A summit was reached this week that has never been visited before.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 for the first time in history. A record possible only because of the outlook investors have in the economy of the United States. Seems like not everyone bemoans the nation’s economy as reported daily.

How to explain this?

Into my mailbox came posts by an American historian, Heather Cox Richardson, that put a spotlight on facts seldom reported these days. By way of introduction, I should say that Professor Richardson writes one of the most widely read newsletters around, Letters from an American. Reaching over one million subscribers, here is Professor Richardson’s point of view as she describes it, “I’m a history professor interested in the contrast between image and reality in American politics.”

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not to their own facts, is a phrase I’ve always found useful when people are sharing an opinion with facts wildly at odds with reality. Professor Richardson compiled a set of current economic facts that just might explain why some are more optimistic than others.

Excerpts from Heather Cox Richardson’s Letters from an American:

About the Dow above 40,000…

This extraordinary performance means investors have confidence the Federal Reserve will get inflation under control without throwing the country into a recession.

About inflation….

Driving the hike in the stock market, most likely, is the information released…. by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Labor Department saying that inflation eased in April. Investors are guessing this makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. 

About a just released CBO report….

….a report released yesterday from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, [is] an important addition to the news from the stock market. It concludes that the goods and services an American household consumed in 2019 were cheaper in 2023 than they were four years before, because incomes grew faster than prices over that four-year period. That finding was true for all levels of the economy.

About purchasing power….

That is, “for all income groups…the portion of household income required to purchase the same bundle of goods and services declined.” Those in the bottom 20% found that the share of their income required to purchase the same bundle dropped by 2%. For those in the top 20%, the share of their income required to purchase as they did in 2019 dropped by 6.3%. 

About employment….

These statistics come on top of unemployment below 4% for a record 27 months, and more than 15 million jobs created since Biden took office, including 789,000 in manufacturing. According to Politifact, three-quarters of those jobs represented a return to the conditions before the coronavirus pandemic, but the rest are new. 

About America’s economic recovery….

Politifact noted that it is so rare for manufacturing jobs to bounce back at all, that the only economic recovery since World War II that beats the current one was in 1949, making the recovery under the Biden-Harris administration the strongest in 72 years.

Lastly, about the stock market….

In comparison to the breathless coverage of the stock market during Trump’s administration, this milestone is getting very little coverage. Under Trump, the stock market had the highest annualized gain of any Republican president since Calvin Coolidge in the 1920s, but at 11.8%, that annualized gain was lower than the annualized return under Democratic presidents Barack Obama (12.1%) and Bill Clinton (15.9%). Biden’s annualized return passed Trump’s in April 2024, as well. 

As the saying goes….“just the facts!”

Craig Fuller served four years in the White House as assistant to President Reagan for Cabinet Affairs, followed by four years as chief of staff to Vice President George H.W. Bush. Having been engaged in five presidential campaigns and running public affairs firms and associations in Washington, D.C., he now resides on the Eastern Shore and publishes DECADE SEVEN on Substack.

The biggest winner or loser in Maryland this November won’t have his name on the ballot.

Governor Wes Moore could not have been more clear last night while speaking at Angela Alsobrooks victory celebration as she was projected to have defeated David Trone to win the contest.

Saying the “battle” had been won in the primary victory for Alsobrooks, Governor Moore declared the “war” starts today, suggesting anything short of victory for Alsobrooks is unacceptable.

Governor Moore’s all out primary support for Alsobrooks proved the determinative obstacle for David Trone who spent over $62 million of his own money to win. So, Moore has the candidate he wanted to challenge former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan who handily won the Republican primary.

While pundits are suggesting the race could favor the popular former Republican governor, I think Hogan’s path is decidedly different than anything he faced before and much more challenging.

First, Larry Hogan has never been on a ballot where Donald Trump also appears. The governor’s race is held in the off years, so Hogan ran at the top of the ticket where he clearly succeeded by pulling independent and middle of the road Democratic votes in the past.

Of course, this year, Trump will most likely be the top Republican on the ballot. The problem is that looking at primary vote counts, once again Trump did not get Republican voters out in numbers comparable to prior years. And, one out of five voters who did come out to vote in the Republican primary, voted against Trump for Nikki Haley who dropped out of the contest two months ago. Hogan must have every possible Republican voter to have any chance of victory.

Perhaps more important, former Governor Hogan has never run against the current and popular Governor, Wes Moore. Governor Moore’s determination to see Angela Alsobrooks emerge as the winner last night means he is all in for an Alsobrooks’ victory in November. And, it means more than having a strong ally in the United States Senate.

If Governor Moore succeeds in building a victory for Alsobrooks, he will earn the respect and support of his party which, by his efforts, just might hold on to its Senate majority. So, by defeating a past Maryland governor, the current Maryland governor will be catapulted to new heights in an already rapid political climb; and, he will do it without his name on the ballot.

Craig Fuller served four years in the White House as assistant to President Reagan for Cabinet Affairs, followed by four years as chief of staff to Vice President George H.W. Bush. Having been engaged in five presidential campaigns and running public affairs firms and associations in Washington, D.C., he now resides on the Eastern Shore and publishes DECADE SEVEN on Substack.

Here come the Iowa Caucuses.

Curious minds ask, will they really matter?

Not all that much based on the past 20+ years.

Since 1972, Iowa has been holding some version of the caucuses. People must actually show up at neighborhood locations and declare their support for the primary candidates. Only Iowans may participate. The results determine to whom Iowa’s forty delegates go.

In the next couple of weeks, a massive effort will be underway to get supporters to turn out to the gatherings held on January 15th. During this same period, hours of news commentary will interpret the meaning of it all. They’ll ask if Donald Trump is going to win by a substantial enough margin or not. In Iowa, a win could be a loss for the front runner. People will be ready to write-off Ron DeSantis if he can’t come in second. And, any respectable finish for Nikki Haley can only suggest new momentum.

There is just one little problem.

If the Iowa caucuses for Republican candidates counted all that much, then we would be reading about President Mike Huckabee. He won in 2008. Or, how about President Rick Santorum, now a frequent cable news commentator? He won the Iowa caucuses in 2012. And, then we have the administration of President Ted Cruz who won in Iowa in 2016.

Of course, none of them capitalized on their Iowa victories to go on to win the presidency.

However, political careers do go on after Iowa. Former President George H.W. Bush won the Iowa caucus in 1980 before withdrawing from the presidential campaign. He became President Reagan’s Vice President and went on to win the presidency in 1988. But, guess what. That year in Iowa he finished behind Bob Dole and Pat Robertson. I was there and it was painful.

So, as political entertainment, Iowa is right up there as we start the 2024 election year. As a predictor of how things will end, it’s not all that reliable.

Stay tuned for what happens when voters cast ballots in New Hampshire on January 23rd and in the South Carolina on February 24th. Until then, I’m sure Al From and I will have a thing or two to say each Thursday afternoon. I mean, what else is there to talk about?

Craig Fuller served four years in the White House as assistant to President Reagan for Cabinet Affairs, followed by four years as chief of staff to Vice President George H.W. Bush. Having been engaged in five presidential campaigns and run public affairs firms and associations in Washington, D.C., he now resides on the Eastern Shore.

News of the outcome concerning the search for Roy McGrath came Monday night as a shock.

Roy was a colleague over 20 years ago. We reconnected when he began frequent trips to the Eastern Shore as the head of the Maryland Environmental Service (MES). At no time over two decades could I have imagined an outcome like the one resulting in his death yesterday as a fugitive from justice.

For a time, Roy chose to become more engaged in activities on the Eastern Shore. MES serves the Eastern Shore in many ways from the rebuilding of Poplar Island to recycling. There are employees here in our communities and community engagement was something Roy sought.

He stepped away from MES to become Governor Hogan’s chief of staff, leaving that office when he found himself caught in what he always described as an unfair series of attacks surrounding his tenure at MES and his departure.

While there are surely facts to be discovered, I found myself thinking about this tragedy the way the aviation community thinks about aircraft accidents. As a pilot for over five decades, one of the things I learned was that there was never just one cause for a tragic outcome.  Furthermore, there is usually a case to be made that if just one or two elements along a tragic path had occurred differently, the tragedy could have been avoided.

I feel that way about Roy and the path he was on. He always presented himself as someone at the top of his game. Over many conversations, it was clear he was proud of the business-like way he was running MES.

If only he had fostered more allies inside.

If only upon his departure he had rejected a separation payment.

If only the board of MES had decided such a payment was unwarranted.

If only Roy, who never wavered in suggesting he was innocent of all charges, could have had his day in court before a judge and jury.

If only he had not fled from the trial before it began.

The path Roy chose and decisions he and others made lead to his death. I just cannot help but believe this could have turned out differently if just one or two factors could have been altered.

My thoughts are with Roy’s wife and family. It is a sad day, a sad loss, and regrettable that justice in this matter will be denied the chance to be done.

Craig Fuller served four years in the White House as assistant to President Reagan for Cabinet Affairs, followed by four years as chief of staff to Vice President George H.W. Bush. Having been engaged in five presidential campaigns and run public affairs firms and associations in Washington, D.C., he now resides on the Eastern Shore.

Please Standby….

So, imagine this.

FOX SPORTS COMMENTATOR #1:  ……Brady drops back. He escapes a sack and is running right. He has a receiver down field. He launches a long pass that could win the game….it’s going to be close….

FOX SPORTS COMMENTATOR #2:  Stay with us, and we’ll be back to share what happens right after a short break.

ASSOCIATED PRESS SPORTS HEADLINE:  Brady’s pass in the last 3 seconds wins the game!

FOX SPORTS COMMENTATOR #1:  We want to pick up with an analysis of just how this critical game has gone up to the last 3 seconds.  And, we will share the Associated Press report on the game’s outcome, when we come back from this commercial break….

OK, so this is something that would never happen, right? Who would tolerate a sports reporting network holding off showing the final pass of the game to hold its audience through commercial breaks and to extend its ratings?

Well, FOX SPORTS would never do this, but what about FOX NEWS?

Last week, Dave Wheelan at the Spy spoke with Al From and me in our weekly commentary segment about the impact on the Dominion suit against FOX NEWS for defaming the company and saying on air things the anchors and commentators knew not to be true based on recovered emails from the post 2020 election time-period.

My quip at the outset suggested that there might be two key questions about the FOX NEWS revelations:  1) was anyone surprised; and, 2) did anyone really care? 

While it was bad enough that Rupert Murdoch acknowledged that the news organization he owns had misled viewers, it seemed this story was destined to get worse. This past weekend, it did get worse when Peter Baker in the NEW YORK TIMES gained access to a Zoom conference held after the 2020 election with the FOX NEWS CEO and the leading anchors and commentators. 

The Zoom meeting was recorded and thus provides a revealing look into the words and thinking of FOX NEWS leaders.  And, the focus was how it was wrong in the 2020 election to call Arizona for then candidate Joe Biden first, even though it was the correct call from FOX’s own election desk that had invested millions of dollars to get election calls correct.

And, the reason for the angst by the “faces of FOX NEWS” was that three things had happened:  1) the election desk got the Arizona call right; 2) FOX was first to make the public announcement; 3) the FOX personalities were surprised and not given time to slow down the release of this news to keep their audience locked into the coverage and happy with FOX reporting.

What?

Are not the key metrics of getting it “right” and getting it “first” important for all news organizations?

It turns out, not at FOX NEWS.  There, getting it right and getting it first brought outrage from partisans who favored a different outcome.  Discussion focused on backing off the Arizona election call, which the election desk refused to do. It focused on the cost of ending the suspense early and how it would have been better to wait until other news organizations made the call.

Time was (admittedly long ago, I guess) when covering presidential elections carried great responsibility.  Networks brought their best to election nights, taking care to report on the play by play that occurs across the nation on a national election day. Reporting on exit polls to share what is on the minds of voters was backed by million-dollar investments in research.  And, actually calling election outcomes was not left to the “talent” sitting in the anchor booth, it was the work of trained statisticians and researchers to get it right and get it early.

If you doubt how much has changed, the sad outcome at FOX NEWS was that the leaders of the FOX NEWS election desk that had been calling election results correctly for over a decade were removed from those jobs and from the network in a strange case where getting it right was getting it wrong from a career standpoint!

While I remain doubtful that too many people care, we should!

The broadcast organization is not branded “FOX CHAT.” It calls itself a news organization. However, the Zoom meeting, the emails and Rupert Murdoch’s own under oath testimony suggest that the coin of the realm is, well, just that: coin!  They want ratings. They want people watching. They want to see the company’s stock price rise – a comment from a Tucker Carlson email.

Polling shows the growing mistrust of news organizations. This is something about which we should be concerned. Journalists work to sort through all the claims and competing points of view to share a balanced story for most of us who cannot or will not take the time to do the research on an issue ourselves. So, when people cannot trust journalists, how do we stay informed?

The Dominion vs. FOX NEWS story is bound to grow larger (unless you watch FOX NEWS). Hopefully, there will be lessons for other news organizations and we, the consumer of news reporting, will be more discerning. Perhaps in time news organizations will bring the same rigor to telling us important election stories as their sister sports organizations bring to showing us great sporting events.  I guess we can hope!

Craig Fuller served four years in the White House as assistant to President Reagan for Cabinet Affairs, followed by four years as chief of staff to Vice President George H.W. Bush. Having been engaged in five presidential campaigns and run public affairs firms and associations in Washington, D.C., he now resides on the Eastern Shore.

 

Closing days of nationwide elections always fascinate me. This year, the intensity of calling citizens to the voting booth seems greater.

It’s the division, I think. The idea of bringing people together in a common cause seems workable only on a bifurcated basis. Republicans hold one set of views and Democrats another on Biden’s performance, abortion, education, the environment, crime and a whole range of other issues. At least, this seems to be the case.

Over the weekend, I heard President Obama ask a crowd in Pittsburgh, “….who will fight for you.” It’s a good question to ask, but the answer varies considerably between members of the two major parties and independents.

No more clear evidence of this presented itself to me than in a recent national survey measuring the approval rating of President Biden. In this poll, the overall approval number was 43%. However, looking inside that number tells the story. 83% of Democrats approved of Biden’s performance. 35% of Independents approved, but think that the economy and crime are the most important issues mirroring Republican sentiments. And, only 9% of Republicans approved of Biden’s performance.

So, the President who announced after his election he would bring us together, seems to have traveled a path that has us further apart than ever.

It is very difficult to see how this week’s election will alter the current reality very much. In fact, a White House lead by one party with the Congress lead by the other party seems a formula for only greater division.

Indeed, in the House, the likely-to-be-next Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, is laying plans for investigations and legislation to rollback what President Biden has tried to do. Few Republican legislative initiatives running counter to the views of leading Democrats will survive the veto pen in the Oval Office; but, few initiatives from the Administration are likely to be accepted by the new Congress.

So, is there a better path forward?

Spoiler alert: Al From and I spoke about this in our From & Fuller predictions in The Spy commentary last week.

From my perspective, we need leaders to emerge and vitriol to be submerged.

One way to get there would be for President Biden, following the final results of the 2022 election, to determine whether or not he can successfully govern in the final two years of his term if he faces Republican majorities in the House or the Senate or both while simultaneously launching a national re-election campaign for the presidency.

I, for one, think it cannot be done. If, however, President Biden would withdraw from campaigning he would no longer be the largest target of Republican leaders. And, new leaders would need to step forward among Democrats who would be less likely to challenge a sitting President of their own party.

A set of new faces among Democrats would surely increase the number of Republican leaders stepping up challenging a return to the past (something that many of us would truly like to move away from).

Lastly, the number of voters who express dissatisfaction with both major parties may well be larger than in decades, maybe ever. There are quiet discussions about finding leaders of both parties to lead a national ticket; or, perhaps a leader who is less partisan.

There are paths forward if individuals step up. What will not soon get us to a better place is doing the same things over and over again, hoping for a different set of results (thank you Einstein).

I do remain optimistic that leaders are out there and they can rally people around them. Indeed, Maryland has stood for that. The outgoing governor, Larry Hogan, remains a popular Republican across the state. And, the likely incoming governor, Wes Moore, a Democrat, enjoys strong bipartisan support. I suspect both will play their own important roles in finding a better way forward.

One can only hope!