Is the GOP about to die? Current polls suggest that the party’s support in key demographic areas is sinking and that in January 2021, Biden will be President and Democrats will control both the House and Senate. Those Republicans who have not already quit the party will engage in an orgy of finger-pointing and reassessment. The finger-pointing will be, well, pointless. The reassessment will be painful. If it’s an honest reassessment, the conclusion should be that it’s time for the party to hang it up.
Go out of business? Yes. The GOP is an irreparably damaged brand. Several key demographics now associate it with injustice, inequity, and oppression. For many, mention of the word “Republican” will conjure up words like racist, greed, lying, white, misogynist, and old. True? For what appears to be a slight majority, yes. Those answering no are, sadly, more likely to be white, xenophobic, and distrustful of government.
A brand so damaged cannot be saved. In large part, GM put Oldsmobile out of its misery in 2004 because it no longer stood for anything worth buying. They determined that reforming the brand, which would have meant radically improving its car, would not be enough to convince buyers to choose it over alternatives. Better to kill a skunk than to hope its stench can somehow be removed.
The demise of the Republican party is already underway. California’s election rules already result in many November elections pairing two Democrats to compete with each other based on votes received in the primary. In most cities, the only hope for a Republican to win mayoral contests is for an incumbent Democrat to implode. Republican governors, like our own Larry Hogan, thrive by differentiating themselves from the party mainstream. Friends describe Hogan as the exception to the rule that all Republicans are bad. Many tell me, “You know, in most ways, he’s not really a Republican. After all, he’s sane.”
If it’s true that the GOP can’t be saved, the question is whether it’s a good thing. One party government likely will lead to excesses. Opposing parties provide essential checks-and-balances. They also serve the function of slowing down law-making by asking questions, channeling the voice of citizens out of the mainstream, and offering alternative visions of the future. When opposing parties work together, national consensus is more likely. And history suggests that when a national consensus is reached, it typically embodies better policies than do laws enacted in times of political division, like today.
An opposing party, provided it hasn’t gone off the deep end like the current GOP, is thus a benefit to the party it opposes. Consider this: If the GOP did not spend so much time proposing walls, race-baiting, and promoting income inequality, the Democratic party would not spend so much time fighting for the basic civil rights involved. Instead, the parties could argue on how best to respond to the coronavirus, rebuild the economy, modernize infrastructure, and improve education. Any of these topics are debates worth engaging in more than the cr*p that passes for politics today.
Assuming that the GOP is dying, what should be done? They shoot horses, don’t they? Those who value what used to be core Republican principles—free trade, reasonable regulation supporting a vibrant capitalist economy, civil rights, privacy, limited government, civility, and freedom from corruption—need to hasten the final demise of the current GOP so the task of creating a new party can get underway. This won’t be easy. Just look what happened to Mitt Romney when he dared to question the President during the impeachment process. It will take clear proof that the current GOP and all the bad things it stands for is dead for most current Republicans and a sizable group of independents to start formulating what a new party should look like.
What about the “core constituencies” of the current GOP? Some would be welcome parts of a new party. And as for others, such as those who lug AK-47s into the Michigan capitol building, effectively embrace white nationalism, and support policies inconsistent with the civil rights of others, good riddance. Let these folks form their own party or, better yet, think about why the party that seemed to embody everything they stood for withered away.
Democrats should welcome the emergence of a new opposing party. Without it, the fissures inside that party may very result in a split that would not bode well for its future. We have already seen Bernie supporters sit on their hands in 2016 and their support for Biden this year has been, to put it mildly, not overwhelming. The creation of a far-left party would almost be as bad as the creation of a far-right one, although one might argue we already have that.
The next decade will be interesting. If our Democracy is to continue, we should all hope that the wreckage of the Republican party will get cleared soon so that a new centrist, economic and justice- focused party can emerge.
J.E. Dean of Oxford is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant. He is a former counsel to the House Committee on Education and Labor. For more than 30 years, he advised clients on federal education and social service policy
Alan Boisvert says
The GOP did it to themselves…..they have no one to blame, they need to look within.
Dan Watson says
John–
I am an old Dem, hair short of yellow dog. But I have a lot of trouble with this. Seems the height of tribalism. Do you really mean to call every Republican (and I know quite a few here in Talbot County) “racist, greedy, lying, white, misogynist, and old?” Is that accurate? Is it it constructive socially or politically for our community? I don’t thing so. (Well, “old” is accurate, among my friends at least).
I realize that was not the main thesis here, but I think it’s how many readers will take it–especially those who stop reading at paragraph #2.
I know, distantly, of a couple of people who subscribe to an “End Of Times” ethos. They’re the one’s who seem to root war between he Jews and Palestinians, to speed the Apocalypse. Let’s not do that. The GOP is hopelessly lost and its quick demise would be a blessing to America. But as to the people–our neighbors and citizens who were Rep’s as it lost its way (and earlier)–lets try help move them in the right direction , not alienate them further.
DW
Deirdre LaMotte says
One is what he/she votes. There is no hiding the fact that the GOP has hitched its wagon, so to speak, to an incompetent
racist…among many other vices. If you know people who still vote GOP and support Trump, well, time to upgrade
to a better class of people. Unless you don’t care. And that is a huge problem in this nation. It is like finding out a
beloved great Uncle was a member of the SS. Gosh, he was so urbane; we’ll read, a man of intellect…….
So, yes, how socially and morally awkward it can be to have standards, as a decent human being should.
John Dean says
Dan: Thanks for commenting. I am most definitely not calling all Republicans racist. Paragraph 2 uses the words “Several key demographics” instead of something like “sane” or “decent” people. I know and am friends with many Republicans, but I differentiate the people from the party and the policies it now supports. I also use the words “For many.” Perhaps I should have been clearer, but I don’t think the paragraph should be read as a condemnation of all people who still identify as Republican.
I believe that many Republicans would welcome the party returning to what were once its core principles. I don’t think that is likely because the center of the party is gone. My hope is that alienated Republicans will abandon the party and either join the Democrats or get involved with a new party that will reject the misguided policies championed by Trump.
Again, thank you or commenting. I welcome the opportunity to clarify that I am not condemning all Republicans. And special thanks to you for your leadership in organizing the demonstration yesterday. It was great to see so many of us making their voices heard. You made that possible.
RC Shafer says
Not at all clear if you are pretending to be a prognosticator, or merely a provocateur, Mr Dean. I could be mistaken, but wasn’t that you sitting broken and forlorn on the marble floor of the Javetz Convention Center last election eve, sobbing all over your necktie after Trump’s shocking, historic upset victory over the presumably invincible Hillary DNC machine? Yes, that was indeed you, at least in the figurative sense. You had arrived with the expectation of a massive fireworks display in celebration of the election of our nation’s first woman President. Alas, well before the defeated candidate could utter her pained concession speech, that grand hall was empty ….. and instead of loud boisterous hurrahs, the only sounds to be heard were a chorus of chirping crickets, and the agony of mournful hand wringing. Better luck with your hate-Trump prophesies this coming November, my dear man.