Let’s watch what happens in the next four years by Maria Grant

No one has a crystal ball that can accurately predict the future. And though many of us think we have all the answers, the fact is that we just don’t. Here are some issues on my watchlist over the next four years.

The national debt rose almost $7.3 trillion in Trump’s last administration. That’s the third biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any other President. George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln‘s deficits were bigger relatively speaking. Trump dealt with the pandemic. Bush had two foreign conflicts. Lincoln financed the Civil War. Biden, dealing with the aftermath of the pandemic, borrowed $4.3 trillion according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Let’s watch what happens next.

During Trump’s last administration, he appointed three conservative Supreme Court Justices: Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. These appointments led to the overturning of Roe v Wade and the Supreme Court’s ruling that gives presidents broad immunity for official acts. Biden appointed one liberal Supreme Court Justice—Ketanji Brown Jackson. It is anticipated that during Trump’s next administration, conservative Justices Thomas and Alito will retire, enabling Trump to appoint two much younger conservative Justices—who could perhaps hold those positions for more than 30 years. Let’s watch what happens next.

Trump deported approximately 1.5 million undocumented immigrants during his four years as President. At this point in time, Biden has almost matched that number of deportations. With Trump’s new appointment of Border Czar Tom Homan, let’s watch what happens next. 

When president, Trump’s suggested cures for Covid included injecting bleach, chloroquine, and hydroxychloroquine into veins. With the anti-vax, anti-fluoride RFK Jr. at the helm of HHS, and Dr. Oz, of coffee-bean extract and Reiki-energy healing fame, taking control of Medicare and Medicaid, let’s watch what happens next.

The average year-over-year inflation rate under Trump was 1.9 percent (influenced by the pandemic). Under Biden, so far it is 5.2 percent. Let’s watch what happens next. 

The former Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products. The Biden administration kept most of those tariffs in place and added an additional $18 billion on Chinese goods, including semiconductors and electric vehicles, for an additional tax increase of $3.6 billion. Trump’s proposed tariff hikes are estimated to increase taxes by another $524 billion, shrink the GDP by at least 0.8 percent, and eliminate 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Academic and government studies indicate that the Trump-Biden tariffs raised prices, reduced output, and employment, and produced a net negative impact on the U.S. economy. Let’s watch what happens next.

From a climate change perspective, the Biden administration has cut total greenhouse gas emissions, passed a climate-smart economic stimulus package, and sought environmental justice. Trump plans to boost fossil-fuel production, has rallied against wind turbines and electric vehicles, and has threatened to claw back unspent climate funding. Let’s watch what happens next—particularly let’s keep a close eye on how such policies will affect the Eastern Shore’s environmental issues. 

In most cases, past presidents have appointed cabinet leaders, even those with controversial points of view, with deep relevant subject-matter expertise. A majority of Trump’s cabinet picks lack government experience and deep relevant expertise. Let’s watch what happens next. 

Because of the pandemic, Trump offered students the ability to defer payments on their student loans. Biden forgave more than $166 billion in student loan debt. Trump has now proposed eliminating the Department of Education which could mark the end of low-interest loans for students. Some economists predict that private lending institutions will once again resume that role. Let’s watch what happens next. 

When Trump left office, the Federal Reserve interest rate was .25 percent (once again influenced by the pandemic). When Biden leaves office, the Federal Reserve interest rate will be around 4.6 percent. Let’s see what happens next.

The astronaut Neil Armstrong once wrote, “Science has not yet mastered prophecy. We predict too much for the next year and yet far too little for the next 10.”  

Truer words have not been spoken.

Maria Grant was principal-in-charge of the federal human capital practice of an international consulting firm. While on the Eastern Shore, she focuses on writing, reading, music, and nature.