Dr. Anthony Fauci experienced his “hallelujah” moment when President Biden assured him that pandemic policies would be based upon “truth and good science” – and that he would be free to present it. Our president is also focused upon unity and working together.
That could be a big ask when so many have yet to acknowledge that he is our president, and taxpayers are being charged for bulletproof vests for their elected representatives. If we don’t already fear this extreme level of dysfunction, Infowars and QAnon could give us a nudge. 40 percent of Republicans still believe that the “deep state” has stolen the presidency from Donald Trump.
Wow. But polls are also telling us that our economy still matters most to most of us. We rarely look at government record-keeping, but without it, how many of us could know that our “greatest economy ever” had actually slowed a bit? Or that it had actually grown more during Obama’s last three years than during Trump’s first three?
Since we now have a Democrat in our White House, we might also appreciate knowing that we have created more jobs and enjoyed higher wages and household incomes during Democratic administrations. As a matter of fact, our economy has expanded 3.6 percent annually under Democratic leadership, on average, since 1947 versus 2.6 percent for Republicans. So, based upon decades of performance, our outlook is good.
And what about our stock market? Still good. Over that same time period our S&P 500 posted an average annual return of 10.8 percent while a Democrat was president vs. 5.6 percent under Republican presidents. And excluding our Great Recession and COVID-19 sell-offs, which occurred during Republican presidencies, that trend remained. This should give us even more reason to be optimistic, unless we’re hanging on for “trickle down.”
Debt is rarely mentioned while Republicans are in office, and there could be a reason for that. Carter’s debt became 43 percent larger. Reagan’s was up 186 percent. George H.W. Bush’s debt became 54 percent larger. Clinton’s was up 32 percent, and G.W. Bush’s shot up 105 percent. Obama’s debt increased most dollar-wise after being handed our Great Recession, but his 70 percent still lagged behind Reagan and Bush.
Republican administrations have created nearly three times as much debt, and Trump’s debt was up 34 percent in 4 years. Relative to the size of our economy, his debt is third largest of all presidents, behind just Abraham Lincoln and G,W. Bush.
We might wonder if relatively poor results could be attributed to bad luck or bad timing. Many factors are at work, and a president can only do so much, but we can also see which party left us with our Great Depression, Savings and Loan Crisis, and our Great Recession, and that Democrats are far more likely to be cleaning up after Republicans than the other way around.
But we all know someone who still voted for Donald Trump because their 401k is doing great. Uncertainty has never been higher than during Covid, but our market has never been higher, either. Corporations received generous government assistance, and some forecasts remain optimistic; but stock prices over 30 times earnings have reached levels associated with heightened risk.
Fortunately, and perhaps not surprisingly, Moody’s is assuring us that Biden’s overall legislative plan will result in greater economic and job growth than a second Trump administration would have. And a majority is siding with their findings.
Donald Trump warned us that he “could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone,” and he “wouldn’t lose any voters.” Five died and hundreds were injured in the violent insurrection upon our Capitol incited by President Trump, and many stayed with him.
But a majority of voters prevailed, and we now have a president who is working for all of us. And not only are we seeing reassuring levels of competence and accountability, we’re receiving daily updates. And our economic outlook? It’s good, too – and likely better than it would have been. Hallelujah!
Carol Voyles
Easton
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