Hamas had been decimated. Hezbollah as well. Syria? Well, Assad is living in Russia.
Israel, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad (Israel’s intelligence agency), dominates the Middle East militarily even though at the expense of international approval. As it often turns out, international approval doesn’t win wars.
President Trump saw an opening. He used a charm offensive on the Sheikdoms, government-to-government leverage on the Egyptians, and raw power on the Iranians, and it is said, threatening language with Netanyahu, to arrive at a moment of rare hope in the Middle East.
He sensed the time was right, and it was. Hamas’ hostages are now home, and it appears the Palestinian’s have an opening. An opening, resulting from Netanyahu’s use of raw power, which put Israel on a diplomatic back foot, international standing can make a difference.
Congratulations, President Trump. Understanding and using leverage is an inescapable leadership asset. How does this international success translate at home?
Tariffs are a centerpiece of the President’s domestic agenda and were always going to hurt agriculture. They are. And we are facing off with China, which has a dominant position in minerals that are crucial in some of the most advanced technologies.
In parallel, a variety of necessary (not discretionary) consumer costs are going up, and the polls say the President is having real problems with the unaffiliated voter. They care more about their pocketbook than peace in the Middle East.
Also people care more about their health than grocery prices. The President’s health care leader, Robert F Kennedy Jr (RFKJ) has sown conflict and confusion. Measles are on the rise. “What do I do?” people ask about the newest Covid vaccine, Etc. Plus, most of the doctors who deal directly with patients are not fans of RFKJ.
By the way, France is providing a sneak (or not so sneak) preview. Its balance sheet is “a big ugly mess”. Successive governments have failed. Demonstrators are having an influential moment. America still has time to turn the corner, but the big debt clock is saying we won’t. History will be harsh on the last generation that had a chance and failed. Mr. President, we need a believable fiscal sanity plan.
We have reached a point where the unaffiliated voter block is larger than that of either Party. This block will determine the 2026 election outcome— I call it the “lame duck election”. History says the Democrats will do well; it’s a cyclical thing. It will take a charming, not just belligerent, President to outflank history.
Congress could theoretically count again. Indeed, Congress is the most disappointing story of the last nine months. In my view, if several Members of Congress on the Republican side would say “no” to the President, he would have a better chance of prevailing in 2026. Political expression in the United States was never intended to be either Yes or No. America is complicated. Leadership talents have to persuade, not dictate. The art of the deal in politics is not all leverage.
The win in the Middle East can embolden. The President, receiving compliments from the other side, can choose to be magnanimous. Unfortunately, he won’t.
He can be expansive and turn a number of independent voters. He can relish new support in the polls and become as influential in the US as he has been in the Middle East. But, trying to stay arms’ length from the government shutdown is not a deft move.
Finally, Mr. President, it is hard to win a Nobel Peace Prize if you are at war at home.
Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.
Willard Tod Engelskirchen says
Health care is important to most of us. RFK is an unmitigated disaster. Funding of NIH and other federal research programs put the US in the lead in medical advances. My family has seen cancers and Parkinson’s. Cures and treatments are possible with research. This is being thrown out. There is a real need for honesty from RFK rather than have him tell us what he would like to have us believe. I suspect he is not capable of providing this.
Relative to the debt I can only say that, as a country, we cannot afford the billionaire tax cut just passed. Just as we could not afford the tax cuts we got under Trump I or the George W administration. We need to pay for the services we get from government. A little fiscal discipline would be nice.
The uber wealthy can deduct the expenses of a “family office.” Us ordinary folk cannot even deduct the expense of a financial manager.
I spent 56 years in and around Chicago. It is not a crime ridden hell hole. The murder rate there is below that of Houston or Dallas. It is midrange in most crime categories. Immigrants commit crime at a lower rate than those of us born here.
There is a long ways to go to get us back on the right path.
James O Siegman says
We can give some credit where it is due for whatever small part Trump has in the Gaza ceasefire. But we all know this is unlikely to last. Our president continues to apply simple solutions to complex problems….which is generally NOT a recipe for sustained success. My guess is that even this initial success is as much accidental as somehow influenced by the charlatan in the White House. I do not believe that he has any level of discernment or deep thought to execute tying his own shoes let alone effecting a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians…..the degree of complexity in solving that conflict has evaded the leadership of the US, Israel, and a host of other players. Don’t count on this being permanent. I will certainly celebrate in a year or two or three if it holds…but color me skeptical.