President Trump will be impeached, possibly before Christmas. This sobering reality is setting in as the evidence against Trump builds. His request for a favor from Ukrainian President Zelensky, bolstered by the withholding of American military assistance, is widely viewed as an illegal impeachable offense. News as October starts includes involvement by Attorney General Barr and Secretary of State Pompeo in the scandal. Trump’s response to the whistleblower, his imprudent tweets, attempting to cover up evidence, suggesting a civil war will break out if he is removed from office and accusing a Member of Congress of treason, is perhaps worse.
Trump’s Presidency is in jeopardy and he knows it. His response is that of a shady New York real estate developer in trouble with the regulators—deny everything, throw up a smokescreen, accuse the accuser, and fight back with everything you got. That approach is not likely to work in Washington, especially now that the evidence against him is overwhelming and growing. Urgency has replaced hesitancy as Democrats are no longer afraid to take Trump on. Impeachment seems inevitable.
As this sad story unfolds, we will come to understand Trump better. Among the insights on the horizon is that he did not realize that asking the Ukrainian President for a favor was wrong, that hiding evidence of his conversation with Zelensky was illegal, and that, of course, lying is not okay, even if you believe all politicians lie. If you are “the most powerful man in the world,” can’t you do whatever you want? Isn’t it true that the President is immune from criminal prosecution? And can’t he just pardon himself?
Trump is a believer in the adage that all is fair in love and politics. His rise to the Presidency reinforced his belief that to win you must fight. What many see as moral failings or worse, he sees as evidence of his strength and leadership. And given his belief that his political opponents, including the press, are out to get him, he no doubt feels justified in hitting back, hard.
Better understanding Trump, or thinking that you do, doesn’t make what is happening any less unsettling. In many ways, it makes it worse. Damage has been done, and more is coming. The impeachment process itself will be ugly. And Trump’s reactions if the Senate removes him from office could be worse. Would he leave or would he claim the process was rigged and refuse to exit?
Many of the President’s opponents are expressing relief that the Trump era may soon be over. If he goes, that relief may be short lived. A President Pence would trigger a year of world-wide confusion about who is running the country. He is unknown to most, here and abroad, and his extreme views on many matters preclude his ability to reunify the country in the way Gerald Ford did after Nixon. Even worse, Trump’s departure is likely to leave the Republican party in irreparable shambles. The party has been tarred with the racism, incompetence, and greed of Trump and the cowardly responses of Congressional Republicans to it. Many believe the brand has been permanently destroyed. And until a new party emerges to represent limited government, balanced budgets, free trade, and neutrality on social issues, we may effectively have one-party rule in most of the country.
These are unsettling times for America. As citizens, we can only hope that the nightmare ends soon and that a rebuilding process begins.
J.E. Dean of Oxford is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant. He is a former counsel to the House Committee on Education and Labor. For more than 30 years, he advised clients on federal education and social service policy. He is the former chairman of the National College Access Network (NCAN), a group promoting success in higher education among underrepresented groups, and KnowledgeWorks Foundation, a national leader in strategic foresight and education innovation.
Charlie Bohn says
Why is the author afraid to allow the American people to judge this terrible crime through a national election in about a year? The Democrats can run on this and Trump can run on Peace and Prosperity.
John Dean says
Thank for your comment, but I am not advocating impeachment but rather commenting that it appears inevitable given recent events. I also doubt that the Senate will convict Trump given that a two-thirds vote is necessary. Thus, the American people most likely will have President Trump until January, 2021 and the opportunity to extend that for another four years.
Carl Widell says
J. E. Dean lays out a good analysis of likely events. In his comment, Charlie Bohn missed the point. Democrats would be more than happy to run against Trump in 2020. He is behind the all the major Democratic candidates by significant margins. But Trump has broken the law, Federal Election Law and Constitutional Law. The only remedy is Impeachment. Democrats are doing their Constitutional duty, maybe to their detriment at the polls.
I do not things will conclude by Christmas as Dean suggests. Trump will resist, use executive privilege and create smokescreens. And Nancy Pelosi will be happy to parade Trump’s transgressions through the campaign season. This is an historic moment.
John Dean says
Carl, thanks for your comment. I agree with you that Trump wil resist, use executive privilege, etc. to slow things down. Please note that I wrote that “possibly by Christmas,” rather than make a prediction. I politely disagree that Pelosi will want to highlight the alleged crimes throughout the campaign season. The Clinton impeachment hurt Republicans when that happened and, given the probability that the Senate will not convict him, there are significant risks for the Democrats. I believe they would prefer to run on domestic policy issues, especially if the economy starts deteriorating.
Mike Huffstetler says
You need to actually read the transcript of Trump’s phone call with the Ukranian President if you believe this is even remotely close to an impeachable offense.
Since when did it become illegal for a US President and the AG of the US to investigate illegal activities by former Presidents, Vice Presidents and Secretary of States?
Yet again the Democrats are projecting on Trump what they actually did – first it was Clinton’s actions to create the fake dossier which was the basis of illegally obtained FISA warrants to investigate the opposing party’s campaign, and now it is Joe Biden’s illegal actions in fraudulently obtaining money to benefit his son and then threatening to withhold US Aid to Ukraine if the individual who was investigating his son and the Ukranian company that paid his son was not fired.
Where were you crazy liberals when the Clintons & the Bidens were using their office to benefit their families and when Obama was using his office to illegally wiretap individuals in the campaign of the opposing party?
John Dean says
Mike: Although I disagree with your comment, thank you for writing it. I did read the transcript of the Trump call to Zelensky and found the attempt to leverage the delievery of promised military aid to get Zelensky to investigate a political opponent’s son disturbing. A number of experts suggest this is an impeachable offense. In addition to this, there is the issue of obstruction of justice.
I appreciate your raising the allegations against Presidents Clinton and Obama, but believe they are not relevant to the issue of whether Trump should be impeached. Two wrongs do not make a right.
Finally, please let me take issue with you calling me a “crazy liberal.” I’m not sure this op-ed, more of a comment on the the current environment in Washington than an advocacy piece, justifies it.
Mike Huffstetler says
John:
If you read the actual transcript of the call and still believe that a sitting President did anything wrong by asking a foreign President to investigate corruption by a former VP, then you meet the criteria of a “crazy liberal.” The House Democrats have not read the transcript on the floor, instead focusing on a purported Whistle Blower Report that Adam Schiff’s office sat on for several weeks (and possibly assisted in its preparation) and fails to include any first hand knowledge.
It is not an impeachable offense to investigate corruption by a former VP or any other person. Nor did Trump attempt to leverage the delivery of promised military aid to Zelensky, as you allege. That allegation was specifically debunked by Zelensky last week, as was the alleged “quid pro quo”.
It was actually Biden who is on video bragging about having the prosecutor who was investigating the company that gave an unjustified Board position to his inexperienced son fired while Biden was refusing to give $1 billion of promised US Aid to Ukraine.
All of you “crazy liberals” selectively choose only the facts that you want to be heard, rather than all of the actual facts, or, as in the case of Adam Schiff, simply make up their own facts to fit their agenda.
And now the Democrats are trying to hush Rudy Giuliani because he is one of the few who has investigated Biden’s corruption and has written evidence to prove such.
Like the alleged Trump Russian collusion, this Ukranian investigation will backfire on the Democrats and cause Trump to be easily re-elected in 2020 despite the fact that 90+% of the media is in the pocket of the Democrats!
Mike Huffstetler