During this election season, the most frequent attack you hear from Republican candidates is that Democrats are soft on crime. Elect Republicans, they say, and rid the country of crime. Think again. Let’s review the facts.
A study released from Third Way found that per capita murder rates in 2020 were 40 percent higher in states that voted for Donald Trump than in those that voted for Biden. The study also found that eight of the 10 states with the highest per capita murder rates in 2020 voted Republican in every presidential election in the century.
Next, Republicans repeatedly have opposed gun control, allowing people who should never have access to weapons to acquire them. Soon after he became president, Trump rolled back an Obama-era regulation and made it easier for people with mental illnesses to purchase guns. Several Republican candidates running for office propose ways to weaken gun laws if they get elected. Florida Senator Marco Rubio voted against the bipartisan Safer Communities Act which was the first new legislation on gun policy to pass Congress in roughly three decades. And most Republicans are against raising the legal age to purchase guns to age 21. Many of the recent horrific shootings have been done by males under the age of 21. (Remember Texas Senator Ted Cruz’s solution for reducing school shootings—lock all but one door and post guards at schools.)
In addition to an uptick in gun-related crime, hate speech has become mainstream, courtesy of Trump and many of his hand-picked Republican candidates. It is not their country, it is your country, they say. Rants against Jews, immigrants, and minorities in general, encourage violence and motivate others to assume that such acts are justified. Multiple studies have indicated that crime is much more rampant from right-wing extremist groups—Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and others–than from left-wing extremist groups such as Antifa. Data shows that right wing groups are more dangerous and much more active.
Finally, let us not forget that many of these so-called “law and order” candidates encouraged the attack on the Capitol on January 6. Some marched with them. Some helped organize the insurrection. And then there was Missouri Senator Josh Hawley’s famous fist-pump to the perpetrators who killed police, chanted “hang Mike Pence,” wore swastikas, smashed windows, and desecrated the Capitol. On many occasions, Trump has called these perpetrators patriots, and he has promised to pardon them should he get re-elected. Tough on crime, you say?
Democrats are not soft on crime. In the coming days until the mid-term elections, Democrats must do a much better job of changing the narrative and communicating their positions to voters. Some Democratic candidates, like Florida senate candidate Val Demings, are starting to discuss solutions to reduce crimes such as community funding intervention initiatives rather than simply echoing their Republican opponents’ claims that they will be tough on crime. Democrats must continue to do so. It will be a crime if they do not.
Maria Grant was principal-in-charge of a federal human capital practice at an international consulting firm. While on the Eastern Shore, she focuses on writing, reading, piano, gardening, and nature.
John Fischer says
Tell this to residents of Portland, San Francisco, St. Louis, Chicago, Philadelphia and New York, Ms. Grant.
Maria Grant says
States with stricter gun laws experience lower firearm mortality rates. There are higher rates of mass shootings in states with higher rates of gun ownership. Mississippi, Louisiana, Wyoming Missouri and Alabama have the highest firearm mortality rates. States with the lowest firearm mortality rates include Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island and New York. Thanks for your comments.
David Lloyd says
Regrettably, this commentary is so very, very accurate! And, for sure. The Democrats have got to get the message out that is proposed here: It is the Republicans that are responsible for and promoting more violent crime in this country!
Anne Stalfort says
Thank you. Hard sometimes to get the facts out.
Chip Heartfield says
The gaping hole in this info is that the role of large, usually Democrat-run cities in the murder rates has been left out. Most of the states with higher murder rates are there because of their cities, such as #1 St. Louis, #3 New Orleans and so on, and most have Democrat mayors. Rather than point (inaccurate) fingers at others, we should all work to ensure there are common sense laws on the books and grounded DAs and prosecutors to help enforce them. Here is the list of cities: https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/cities-with-most-murders and here is an op-ed piece that includes some specific calculations about how the cities drive the state murder rates: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/19/murder-rates-red-states-myth/. We have friends (of both parties) who live in some of these cities and they are stunned and overwhelmed by what they are seeing. I am thankful that vicious crimes are not at epidemic levels in this area and hope the afflicted cities and states can find common ground to get the violence under control.
Maria Grant says
With all due respect, my analysis is not inaccurate. There are obviously a ton of studies that break down crime data in different ways. I have also read studies that show cities with democratic mayors don’t have more crime. There are breakdowns with various population densities. I agree with your comment that sensible legislation can help reduce crime. The facts are in–stricter gun laws lead to reduced crime. Thanks for your comments.
Brice Gamber says
Rhetoric is nice, but facts trump rhetoric. According to the World Peace Index the top 20 cities by murder rate, from St Louis and Baltimore ( number one and two) to DC and Atlanta ( numbers 19 and 20) all have one thing in common,Democratic Mayors, save Tulsa at number 14.
Democrats should be above cheap pre election rhetoric, least they be hung by facts and their track record
Jess Haberman says
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that you are entirely correct and there is an alarming increase in crime in certain cities and this increase can all be laid to the fault of their democratic mayors. Then please explain why that matters in a national election and how a Republican Congress and Senate will address the issue. Will Congress bar Democrat mayors? Even if an increase 8n crime is somehow the fault of Democrats, are you comfortable how Republicans will address climate change, or do you think that is a hoax? How will giving rich people more money by reducing their taxes and not going after rich tax cheats, help reduce inflation? Jimminy crickets, wasn’t it Republicans who blamed inflation on Democrats for giving stimulus checks out?
Jess Haberman says
I can’t find the World Peace Index, but the Global Peace Index (guessing that is what you meant) lists all the US states by level of violence. Guess what the ten most violent states are: sadly Maryland is the 9th most violent, topped in ascending order by South Carolina, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Alabama, Florida, Nevada, Tennessee and topping the list as most violent – Louisiana. About their political affiliation measured by the Governor, State Assembly, or registered voters – 80% are Republican. Based on these facts, if the object is to assign blame, Democrats deserve 20% of it; Republicans the rest.
Michael Pullen says
Thank you for this clear, fact-based reality check. If Fox News was “fair and unbiased” (as they used to claim, but don’t now) they could take a lesson from your approach.
I still wonder why folks tune into a media outlet that doesn’t even claim to be fair and unbiased, but claims to offer entertainment and opinion.
Donald Martin says
Choose your statistics carefully. A careful critique of the Third Wave report by the Manhattan Institute shows that the Third Wave Report claiming a decline in overall crime rates has failed to point to the significant increases in violent crimes including burglary, physical assault including murder, and grand theft auto.
Maria Grant says
Thanks for your message. Both the FBI and CDC have issued recent reports on crime that show similar results to the ones I referenced.