Politics is similar to a market. A given political figure’s value (strength) is priced in frequent polls that measure his popularity. Political commentators talk about a president’s “political capital”.
In the 1990s, the Democratic political adviser James Carville said: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”
In the case of President Biden, it is almost as if his staff has a short position in his value. With apologies to those who have never shorted a stock or bond, it is not a market move that anticipates the stock or bond will do well. Indeed, if it does well, you lose money.
In politics, losing can be circumstantial and self-inflicted. Former President Trump lost to Covid, a circumstance, but then acted as if he knew what to do, self-inflicted. President Biden, as a candidate, knew he couldn’t keep up with Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren on the Left of his Party so he campaigned from his Party’s Center. He became President and abandoned the Center for the Left notwithstanding paper-thin margins in the Congress. Along with the mishandling of the departure from Afghanistan his beginning pointed to his future.
Now he is blaming his inability to get things done on two moderate Democrat Senators in his Party. He has chosen to lead like the President of an advocacy organization who can raise money using the currency of passion.
In recent weeks he lost the necessary Congressional support on his Build Back Better legislative package and his attempt to federalize voting rules. Plus on Wednesday was told by a majority of the Supreme Court that a universal mandate on employee vaccinations was unconstitutional. And, all the while, poll after poll has measured shrinking popularity.
Starkly, one year into his presidency he already seems a lame duck. And this is at a moment when negotiations with Russia and relatedly the European Union might well turn on the President’s perceived strength. If I was advising the President, I would outline a doable path back to the Center.
Sit down with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senators Manchin and Sinema and reach compromises that will attract Republican Senators from the group that supported the infrastructure bill that was truly bipartisan. But first bring on staff Democrats who know how to work the halls of Congress with its fractious politics. If the President is overruling those kind of staffers among his current advisors, the Nation is in real trouble.
I did not vote for either Presidents Trump or Biden. But all of us by fact of our citizenship are signed up for democracy. Biden won and will continue to be our President for the next three years. His beginning has been unfortunate; I hope he will find his footing. But at present, with the midterm elections looming, one of his new counselors should be James Carville; he knows how political markets work.
Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.
Stephen Schaare says
Hi Mr. Sikes, Thank you, once again, for a thoughtful, succinct and well reasoned essay.
You are,however, polite to a fault. Biden is not a “lame duck”, he is a dead one. “His beginning pointed to his future”. Once again, too kind. His beginning pointed to his end.
Oh, I disagree ol’ Joe will be in office another three years. His mental and physical in the past year is more than obvious. More slurring of words and an increasingly tentative gait.
Tragically, his back up is the VP Harris. Her high office has drawn more attention and light to her plight. I always feared she had a two digit IQ, which is confirmed every time she speaks.
At the risk of dating myself , “you can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear” Nuthin’ much to work with here.
Further congrats are in order, Sir. You submitted a lovely essay without once invoking the words systemic, racist, white privilege and “orange man bad”. God Bless.
JT Smith says
My friend Al Sikes errs when he states that the Supreme Court ruled the workplace vaccine mandate “ unconstitutional.” In its ruling on a procedural point— whether to sustain a preliminary injunction against implementation of the mandate— the majority opinion held that the mandate was not authorized under the Occupational Safety and Health Act. As appropriate in these circumstances, the Court majority opinion did not make a constitutional determination.
Al Sikes says
Perhaps I was too enamored with Gorsuch concurrence and reference to separation of powers. But, and this is the larger point: when a sweeping mandate unassociated with occupational hazards is handed down it should be the Congress, not some regulatory agency, that should act.
Deirdre LaMotte says
I would like to see Biden out there more, talking with people, perhaps
developing a robust media strategy all.the.time. Biden has been in office less than a year, has an opposition led by a ignorant malignant
narcissist that the entire GOP is terrified of. Poor deluged losers, all of them. Biden is trying to govern and thank God governing with honor and principle. Anyone who calls him “dead” or a “loser”
is obtuse, to say the least.
The American public was generally less educated when FDR was President, but it was certainly also more intelligent than the public is now.
Jill Poe says
I hope Trump runs.
William Dalton says
These are difficult times for all of us including the one serving as President.I personally am relieved to have a President that acts Presidential. In spite of the obstacles placed in his way by a refusal of Republican Senators to discharge their Constitutional duty to participate in governing and the challenge of a historical pandemic he continues to lead. Our country is no longer held in dismay by the rest of the world. We recognize the threat of global warming and we have survived the threat of a major depression. We have a plan for revitalization of our infrastructure and we have expanded medical care for our citizens. We have learned not to take our democracy for granted. Some are willing to overturn our democracy for their own personal ambition. What disappoints me is that there were some of us who failed to recognize what our former President was in spite of the evidence.Some are so loyal to their own political party that they will not vote for a candidate of another party. To refuse to cast a meaningful vote is disappointing. No candidate is perfect but one was better than the other.