Yesterday President Biden answered the question of whether he will run for reelection in 2024. The answer is yes. While I admire much that Biden has accomplished in the last 27 months, I am troubled. There are too many risks inherent in an octogenarian running for president. Remember, if Biden wins and completes a full second term as president, he will be 86 on the day he leaves office.
Biden’s advanced age, as well as the possibility that the indicted and arguably insane ex-president may win the Republican nomination, is likely to lead to a series of surprises for the rest of this year through election day 2024. The race will be historic. This is uncharted territory.
As we are well aware, people age at different speeds. Many of us have met people ready for retirement at age 50 and others who could and sometimes do work productively into their 90’s. Biden is young for his age, but too old to both run for president in 2024 and serve as our Chief Executive for another four years starting in 2025. And imagine an 85-year-old as our chief executive in 2028.
The President’s mental ability, stamina, and focus are legitimate worries even if you believe Biden is an exceptionally young 80-year-old. The problem is that healthy 80-year-olds often do not stay that way. Seniors in their 80’s can decline rapidly, especially after a fall or illness. Most of us have experienced such rapid decline with aging relatives which suggests that even if Biden is up for a stressful presidential campaign and four more years as president, the risk of his rapid decline or death cannot be overlooked.
A second worry about the President’s decision to run is that he does not enjoy the enthusiastic support of Democrats. Despite his achievements as president, rank-and-file Democrats don’t want Biden to run even while saying, as I do, that they will support him if he gets the nomination.
What happens if, in the middle of the 2024 campaign season, something happens to Biden that makes it obvious he is not ready to serve four more years? That situation would benefit Republicans. Why take this risk?
In addition to issues directly involving Biden is his choice for vice president. Kamala Harris is a flawed and unpopular vice president. She has not been impressive in her work on border security and has occasionally been an embarrassment on diplomatic missions. It is difficult to imagine her as a competent commander-in-chief. In short, the principal problem with Harris is that given President Biden’s age, if she runs again as his vice president, she is likely to become president. Many strong Democrats I have spoken to want someone other than Harris on the 2024 ticket. Their rationale is not only that she is not the best choice for a potential future president, but that her unpopularity will hurt the 2024 Democratic ticket. Will her presence on the ticket hurt Biden’s reelection chances? Maybe. Why take the risk?
Some Democrats claim the reelection of Joe Biden is the best means of preventing Donald Trump from returning to the White House. That is a legitimate rationale given that, as of today, Trump remains the Republican front-runner. But how likely is it that Trump will remain a viable candidate by the end of the year?
Polls suggest Trump’s support may decline or even collapse in the coming months. Many voters who supported him in the past want to move on. They are just waiting for the right candidate to emerge. Trump has become boring by repeating the Big Lie, attacking RINOs and prosecutors, and engaging in other strange behaviors. Also, there is the question of how his base will react to his likely indictments for election fraud in Georgia, obstruction of justice, and for crimes associated with the January 6 insurrection.
In my view, a Trump decision to quit the 2024 race increases rather than decreases the risk of chaos in the 2024 elections. Trump’s decision would encourage Democrats to look beyond Biden. Several Democrats who would otherwise reluctantly defer to Biden as the best candidate to defeat Trump, may reconsider their decisions. The president currently benefits from the perception that because he defeated Trump in 2020, he is the best bet to do so again. With no Trump in the race, that benefit disappears.
As we look at the 2024 election, we must also consider the possibility of an economic, foreign policy, or climate crisis that would convince Democrats that the situation is beyond Biden’s ability to manage, even if he did not age another day. Will President Biden be ready to take 3 a.m. phone calls when he is 84?
Do the risks of a Biden 2024 reelection bid outweigh the benefits? Yes. The president’s decision to run for reelection is selfish and egotistical. Does Biden believe there is no other democrat who could run the country as well as he could? Do you?
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.
Deirdre LaMotte says
We’ll Warren Buffett was at his best, arguably, in his 80’s. Biden is on fire and thank god he is on the correct side;
Democracy.
John Dean says
Thanks for reading the piece. I agree with you that Biden is “on the correct side–Democracy,” but don’t see him as being “on fire.” I just listened to From and Fuller and was surprised when both suggest that Biden may not still be in the race by next August. I agree with them. (They also don’t believe Trump will be the Republican nominee). Worth watching.
Deirdre LaMotte says
When I said “on fire”I was alluding to his stunning accomplishments in his term so far. No one should ever underestimate this man.
Laurie Powers says
Kennedy Democrat here again. At the time of his presidential candidacy announcement, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was already polling in double digits among Democrats who voted for Biden in 2020 as the lesser of two evils and will not do so again, no matter what, including me. Kennedy has strong support across the political spectrum with homeless Democrats, Independents and Republicans who are disgusted with the establishment uni-party which is antithetical to democracy and the American common good. The DNC is already showing their intent to help Biden win the party’s primary nomination by refusing to hold debates, where Kennedy would destroy him and they know it. The captured corporate/state MSM is ignoring Kennedy in a near media black-out (seems they learned from their prior miscalculation in covering Trump to boost ratings), and if they do cover him, it’s to smear him with lies and superficial propagandist talking points. Neo-lib Democrats should take note – if they unfairly and undemocratically throw the nomination to Biden, we Kennedy Democrats (from all parties) will not support Biden in the 2024 general election. It’s going to get very interesting. http://www.kennedy24.com
John Dean says
Good to hear from you again. I share your disappointment that the DNC has apparently decided not to hold debates. I would like to hear from other Democrats, including RFK, Jr. I believe Democrats deserve a greater role in deciding who is on the 2024 ticket.
I am told that the DNC is handling the primary season the same way it has in the past and the same way Trump did in 2020. That doesn’t make not holding a debate this year okay, especially given the unique circumstances of the Biden candidacy (his age).
J Brennan says
I couldn’t agree more with this. But, I know I am tired of both sides. Both sides talk out of both sides of their mouths and they are fair weather politicians sadly. Biden will join Trump, Obama, GW Bush, Clinton etc. as having the worst budget deficit to date. If Biden really wanted to take action against corporations, why not stop the place he loves so much and was Senator, from being a tax haven? I mean, EL Chapo used DE as a tax haven during his reign. Unfortunately, our definition of a leader has diminished at some point. You can hear this even in the in the State of the Union address’ over the years. We have been lead down a road of division, using technology as a weapon. No longer do you hear, “Never trust a politician, lawyer or a man with a pinky ring.” WE have moved from Aristole’s democracy, to voters who vote for themselves, and not the common good.
Alan Boisvert says
I get tired of hearing people bitch about President Biden. No one else has stepped to the plate. Mr. Dean, do you have an alternative?
John Dean says
I would not call my column “bitching” about Biden.
There are several Democrats that I would like to see run for President: Whitmer, Newsinem, Klobuchar, Booker, and Val Demmings are five.
By Fall I may be ready to add Wes Moore.
Richard Marks says
Good point, Alan. I am just tired of hearing people bitch. Period!
John Dean says
Richard, I am with you. There are too many people “bitching.” I find it especially irritating when they are complaining about something I wrote.
John Fischer says
I respect the leaders of neither political party. But, if the Democratic Party conspires to renominate a doddering old fool partnered again with a demonstrably overmatched vice presidential candidate, it will deserve the scorn of Americans from every political persuasion.
Deirdre LaMotte says
LOL. Joe Biden is the most underestimated President I can remember. I know, it hurts how much he has accomplished!
John Dean says
Please let me politely disagree with your characterization of Biden as a “doddering old fool.” He may be old, but he is not “doddering” or a “fool.” Biden has an impressive record as president. I believe he is too old to run for re-election. I feel the same way about Trump, who shows more signs of mental deterioration than does the President.
Paul Rybon says
Mr Dean once again misses the salient point, that participating in and enabling his son’s criminal influence peddling schemes will inevitably impact him. The senility thing? Running for office from his basement? Not so much. His loyal constituents will follow him no matter how frail he gets.
John Dean says
Thank you for reading the piece. I don’t think the Hunter Biden matter is “the salient point.” Enough said.
Deirdre LaMotte says
How quaint, yet very curious, that the man saving our democracy is in his 80’s. I pray everyday for the nightmare
the Republican Party has caused this nation to dissolve. The complete idiocy of the Texas judge (who was given a thumps down by the American Bar Association prior to nomination), the compete idiocy of Donald Trump’s fan base of ignoramuses
who control that Party, the idiocy and misogyny of EVERY RED STATE GOVERNMENT, the slimy, snarky, autocratic DeSantis, the cringeworthy pearl clutching Lindsey Graham. The gun fetish, the acceptable slaughter of our citizens, the accepting of ignorance because that is what they are told to believe, the hatred for others, as if they were not fellow citizens. And then we have the referendum in Kansas and Wisconsin. The support of democracy abroad which makes us stronger, We have the
obliteration of fascist when everyone can vote. There is hope these fascists, and they are proudly fascist, are annihilated in every election.
God Speed President Biden! No, you are not a Kennedy, nor an FDR or Johnson. You are what we have now and what we need now.
Jerry McConnell says
As a registered Republican for 50 years ( and one who promptly defected with the nomination of you-know-who in 2016) I am surprised and disappointed that the Democratic Party, led by President Biden, has not worked together to find and promote qualified, electable candidates to run for office in 2024.
I don’t see any real reasons for congratulating Joe Biden for his accomplishments as President. He hasn’t driven the country further into turmoil and discontent than did Trump; but he hasn’t really done anything positive with the economy, budget issues, or other key metrics than what was going to happen naturally anyway, after Covid petered out and The Orange Dunce left the stage.
So Biden’s been Okay, but certainly has shortcomings. And, the suggestion that at his age he’s mentally and physically competent enough for another four years is just not realistic. Watching his robotic movements and scripted speech is not comforting.
Democrats should be able to find and groom experienced, and competent candidates who are not extremists or polarizing in their positions on the issues of importance today. Those someones are out there, but Democrats are going to have to set aside differences and compromise on issues to get a good ticket on the ballot —one that can prevail against the Republicans and their parade of extremists.
Deirdre LaMotte says
Anyone who is working to get the poison out of our political system has my vote. And that is Biden.
And with his astute political skills, never underestimate that man, particularly his outstanding handling
of our involvement in the Ukraine war, unifying NATO (which the GOP’s man would dissolve
and cause an international crisis); I can sleep at night. Yeah, I get it. How boring. Well sorry, I’ll take a sane, deliberate, smart
and capable person any day over any GOP candidate. And I’ve not even touched on personal freedoms
that would be obliterated by any Republican.
And remember ladies: you better vote blue or the government will own your bodies. This is a fact.
Mickey Terrone says
Its early in the 2024 presidential election process. With Biden and Trump currently leading the way, its clear that unless Biden falls ill or collapses down a staircase, he’ll destroy Trump. Trump’s toxicity to the ever growing majority of Americans will give Biden a minimum of 7-10 million vote plurality. Worse yet for Trumpist Republicans is that their support of state sponsored anti-abortion legislation and mindless beholdence to the NRA on controlling assault weapons are undermining their credibility even worse than two years ago at the state level.
With Desantis polling lower and lower and self-isolating, Nimarata Nikki Ranfhawa (Haley) (I’m sure lots of far right Repulicans would be thrilled to vote for a female with a foreign name like that), (Hang) Mike Pence and maybe Glenn “CRT” Young, the pickings are slim for any of these to overtake Trump. Worse yet, if Trump is found guilty of any of the felonies that he has and likely will be charged, Republicans will be forced to go with one of these milquetoasts.
Under the circumstances, Biden, who has scarcely lost any work time in the last two years due to illness or incapacity, much less hundreds of days on various golf courses, remains the Democrats’ best candidate. Should he falter, the Dems can fall back on Gavin Newsome in a heartbeat as a solid option. I think we have to take into account how events of the next year leading up to the two national conventions will impact the fields for both parties. The Republicans may be further radicalized to consider Tucker Carlson as a runningmate for Trump or even a presidential candidate in case of a Trump conviction (although his supporters would likely support a Trump-from-prison candidacy). Its hard to put a lid on the craziness of that party.
Thus, I hope you won’t lose very much sleep or throw in the towel with Biden as our candidate with a year before the convention. Just be glad you don’t have to deal with the Republicans’ mad extremists, their unpopular positions, their wacked out “news” coverage with FOX reeling and Newsmax and OAN going bonkers with their deluded viewerships. Its no small irony that firing Carlson in light of the horrendous lies and political skullduggery in support of Trump, that FOX is bleeding viewers. Yet those abandoning FOX’s lies and deceptions have learned nothing, zero, nada. Rather than acknowledging the facts and realities of the Big Lie and the January 6th disgrace et al, they have moved even further into the depths of stupidity and self-deception by watching OAN and Newsmax. This situation is akin to masses of Americans with heavy drug dependence, unable to deal with facts and truth. Its like political fentanyl for these right wingers.
I’ll go with Joe Biden against anyone in the Republican bag of Trump minions.