Election Day 2024 is now less than six months away. Nobody I know is saying, “we’ve seen it all,” because if we have learned anything from the last six months it is in politics, expect the unexpected.
No political pundits predicted that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. would run for president, drop his affiliation with the Democratic Party, and disclose that a worm ate part of his brain. Pundits now are analyzing which voters support Mr. Kennedy and whether his candidacy will hurt Trump or Biden more. A prominent Kennedy family member recently summed up RFK, Jr.’s contribution to American politics by calling him an a*shole.
Most of my friends who follow politics closely did not expect Joe Biden to seek a second term. Given his age, we figured, why would he want the stress? My contacts that disagreed were all people who had either worked with Biden in the Senate or during the Obama years or who otherwise know him beyond what is written in the newspaper.
Biden’s decision created one of the biggest uncertainties of 2024—whether he will stay healthy enough to campaign through election day. Biden’s decision has also forced Democrats to shelve concerns most of them have about Biden’s vice president. Although most Democrats will not say it, the assumption is that if Biden wins, Ms. Harris will be president before Election Day 2028.
Then we come to Trump. Who expected four indictments with dozens of felony charges? Who expected Trump’s supporters to shrug off the indictments and, in truly troubling behavior, support him more fiercely than they would if he were a saint?
Trump is showing the effects of the stress of endless legal problems and financial challenges resulting from judgments against him in the New York business fraud and E. Jean Carroll defamation cases. His problems will only get worse. Trump may even have to mark-up his Bibles or issue more NFTs.
The Grateful Dead used to sing, “What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been.” I am singing, “What a Long Strange Trip It Will Be.”
I expect events in the next six months to eclipse those of the last six in terms of weirdness. This worries me. As Joe Biden says, “Democracy is at stake in this election.” But that is not all to worry about. The Constitution might not survive into 2025 if Trump loses the election and mobilizes what could be a waiting army of brown-shirted thugs.
I confess to being most worried about Trump, but there is plenty of uncertainty to go around. Here are some things I worry about that, likely, would-be surprises.
An eruption of a regional war in Gaza and Israel. Netanyahu is the equivalent of a drunk flying a Boeing 737MAX. Israel is our ally, but Netanyahu is prompting a reassessment. Some now conclude that America’s unrestrained support for Israel is a mistake that is costing America its credibility in the world.
Joe Biden has had the misfortune of serving as president as this crisis continues to evolve. He did not put Netanyahu in office or have anything to do with the October 7 attacks, but he is now accused of aiding and abetting genocide.
Biden is already a historically unpopular president. The Middle East could cost him the election.
Turning to Trump, one worry is that he, rather than Biden, will have a health crisis. He is already showing signs of mental instability. Did you hear or read about his comments about Hannibal Lecter? Trump is getting crazier. What happens if Trump crashes—falls apart by becoming incapacitated—what happens to his MAGA movement?
We also must worry about the possibility of Trump supporters attempting to disrupt the election before it takes place. One way to get people not to vote is to instill fear in them.
Not all the uncertainties of the next six months involve the candidates. The economy is the biggest wildcard. There is also the possibility of the Supreme Court issuing a decision that mobilizes one side or the other. And what if Putin wins in Ukraine? Will voters blame Biden (unfairly, probably yes) or the Republicans who blocked aid for more than six months?
More surprises are in store. I am writing this on Tuesday morning, May 14. I just learned that House Speaker Mike Johnson and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum will attend Trump’s hush money trial today. I am sorry Johnson was not in the audience for Stormy Daniels’ testimony. I have not seen Speaker Johnson blush. That would be a surprise, but in 2024, maybe not.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and all too infrequently, other subjects.
Michael Callahan says
I would love to have him write more frequently on other subjects and less frequently on politics and government
John Dean says
Thank you for reading the piece.
I’m only speculating, but if Donald Trump reads The Spy, I suspect he would agree.
Rebecca Ellison says
Please do everyone a favor and STOP talking about ANY political candidate. You apparently don’t think much farther than Biden’s age and Trump maybe reading your articles about him in the Spy.
How about reading up on Gaza (AlJazeera and Haaretz) or Ukraine (the Guardian) or the climate crisis or even the looming bird flu pandemic, the imminent reversal of some parts of the Atlantic Gulf Stream currents or the recently heightened solar flare activity threatening the world’s electric grid.
‘the grid’.
Biden will still be older than you think he should be and Trump still won’t be reading your column … but you might have given others some of the mountains of other necessary information they need to put some serious thought into as they choose candidates and cast their votes.
John Dean says
You may have been too subtle in your response. I think you didn’t like this piece or my other columns.
I appreciate your posting a response and for, I think, reading the piece.
Deirdre LaMotte says
If you wish your well stated concerns addressed,
I say these are my own, please Vote Blue. This is the
“Color” that is addressing our pressings needs, both
nationally and globally.
Mickey Terrone says
Hello John. Looks like some of your readers are getting ever more uncomfortable reading your articles. They’re almost begging you to look the other way and write about anything other than Trump and Hogan.
Their feeble resistence rarely ever mentions any cogent commentary effectively to challenge your words. Keep it up. You are on the mark getting these folks out of their comfort zones. The combination of Trump and a Republican controlled Senate would devastate America’s democratic republic. Hogan will follow his political instincts suck up to the MAGA pressure like the rest of cowards in that party in both the House and Senate environment. To think that Maryland would do anything to support Trump/Republican radical fascism and authoritarianism is unconscionable.
Don’t let up.
Deirdre LaMotte says
Agree! It doesn’t matter what he believes. If he wins, the GOP is in the majority and every committee will be chaired by them. McConnell (or whatever wing nut they choose to replace him with) will be majority leader and they will push through reactionary judges. Another Cannon or Kacsmaryk anyone?
While I can’t see Hogan flying down to Mar-a-Lago to bow and scrape, I can see him changing his mind on abortion if he wins. That’s too much risk for Maryland voters.