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May 21, 2025

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News Maryland News

Pollsters Missed the Mark Again — Md. Political Pros Ponder What Happened

November 6, 2020 by Maryland Matters

As ballots from Tuesday’s election continue to be tallied, America finds itself in the throes of an ever-tightening presidential race that no one really saw coming.

Many pollsters, once again, missed the mark with projections for the victor of the 2020 election, which they projected to be a clear-cut win for Joe Biden in the presidential contest and congressional Democrats around the country.

Instead, no victor has been declared yet in the White House election, and Democrats lost seats in the House and may not make any gains in the Senate.

“THE POLLING INDUSTRY is a wreck, and should be blown up,” read the Politico Playbook newsletter Wednesday morning.

But what went wrong — in 2016 and 2020 — and why does it keep happening?

Jim Burton, a pollster and former executive director of the Maryland Republican Party, told Maryland Matters in a Wednesday phone interview that polls aren’t meant to serve as a crystal ball, but rather a “snapshot” of where voters’ heads are at the time they’re taken.

“There are polls out there that maybe they didn’t come up with the exact figure on how an election broke, but one thing about polls is they are a snapshot in time, and they’re not to be … like ‘hey, here’s what exactly is going to happen,’” he said. “It’s saying ‘here’s what it looks like at that time.’”

Polls may just be a “snapshot” as Burton suggests, but Steve Raabe, owner of OpinionWorks, an Annapolis survey research firm, said they also tend to contain merely surface questions.

“If you focus on just the horse race question [of] ‘Who do you support?’ not only are you just getting a snapshot in one point in time, but you are also not measuring strength of support, or a person’s propensity to change their mind, or who their second choice is or if they could ever vote for the other candidate — there’s many other factors,” he said. “So good polling is going to take all those sorts of things into account.”

Raabe said that it’s important to deploy other data gathering methods, like focus groups, to really get inside of the mind of the voter.

“Many people are conflicted,” he explained. “They feel one way about a candidate, and another way about a candidate and it’s important to try to sort out those cross-currents and that’s really hard to do in a snapshot poll.”

Good polling is reliant not only upon getting to the deeper questions, but how voters are reached.

Raymond Glendening, a Maryland-based Democratic political strategist and former national political director for the Democratic National Governors Association, called polling an industry “on the backslide in terms of its reliability.”

Pollsters still heavily lean on outdated sourcing tactics, like calling people on the phone — often even on landlines.

“It’s a changed electorate,” Glendening told Maryland Matters in an interview Wednesday. “It’s a younger one.”

While some polling outlets have shifted their eyes to cellphone and web polls to meet the moment, he said most of the industry has hesitated to adjust.

“I think when balanced, the majority of the industry has been incredibly slow compared to most to adapt and to innovate and to reflect … the changing demographic that exists among the voter base number one, and then just the technical ability to reach them,” Glendening explained.

Raabe called it “a major mistake” for pollsters, including the Washington Post, to continue to survey the general public solely by phone.

“The telephone non-response rate has absolutely spiked in the last several years,” Raabe said. “And so pollsters are now having to literally dial 100 or more live phone numbers to get one person to respond, so you have to really wonder who those non-responders are.”

Glendening, who has worked on a series of federal, congressional, presidential and state-level races in the last 15 years, said that polling has become “a helpful, ancillary tool” rather than a compass for campaigns to determine what audiences they need to reach and how.

“To some degree, I think that there is kind of this growing sense that, just from an entire industry perspective, it’s something that we can’t continue to put our entire campaign fortunes — or lack thereof — around,” he said.

But political insiders aren’t the only consumers of political polls: The general public tends to put a lot of stock in data gathered by pollsters and translated by media outlets.

Asked if he thinks that the public should continue to invest themselves in pre-election polling, Glendening’s answer was “a firm no” on the basis that “less-than-reliable outlets … can really jade and skew public opinion, both as it pertains to the competitiveness — or lack thereof — of a race, but also just in terms of where they should be focusing their attention.”

Glendening pointed specifically to two 2020 examples: Democrat Amy McGrath’s failed campaign against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Jaime Harrison’s unsuccessful run against Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

McGrath and Harrison collectively raised nearly $200 million during the 2020 election cycle: a “jaw-dropping, eye-opening, blow-your-hair-back-and-turn-it-gray number” for two Democrats in traditionally Republican states, said Glendening.

He said that their campaigns “cherry-pick[ed]” polls that showed them within “striking distance” of their opponents, in races that they had a slim chance of winning, to funnel cash from small donors into their campaigns that could have been used in “truly competitive races.”

“I think that … the fact that a really, really, really healthy percentage of the polling outfits, let’s just say are subpar at the very, very best, are not always skewing public opinion in terms of what’s real and what’s not, but it is fundamentally changing how some of these races are being funded at the grassroots level and thus changing the ultimate electoral map.”

‘He’s an anomaly for all of us’

For some political professionals, President Trump seems to be the monkey wrench in the polling system.

“Let’s face it, he’s an anomaly for all of us,” Glendening said. “I mean, he’s not just an anomaly to polls, he’s also an anomaly to do fact-checking on, is an anomaly to do counter-messaging on, is an anomaly to do any kind of real, cohesive and coherent response to because he’s kind of just an outlier of a political organism.”

Glendening attributes this to two factors: a “guilty dishonesty” among surveyed voters who may feel uncomfortable publicly disclosing their support of him and messaging from Trump’s camp and centrist Democrats.

“I think you’re going to have the Bernie [Sanders]/[Rep.] Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.)] left , that’s going to look at this thing and say, ‘this is exactly what we said,’ and feel very righteous about, ‘we had a moderate, inside the Beltway, typical standard-bearing candidate, and because of that, we didn’t draw a diverse and vast enough choice here and this is what we get,’” he said.

“And I think that you’re going to have the more establishment elements of the party that are going to say that this is largely a problem because there were Republicans, and particularly Trump, [that] were able to effectively paint Biden as too far left,” Glendening added.

“Clearly, there’s a lot of tension in the messaging that’s based in the polling, and I think that reflected in the result.”

Raabe said that he thinks pollsters missed out on the “vigor and the size of the Trump turnout” in a year where attempting to measure voter turnout was already destined to be complicated because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“I have wondered throughout this year if national pollsters like the New York Times or somebody who’s trying to dive down into individual states is able to do it with success just because it’s so tricky to poll any state,” Raabe explained, “and to poll a state you don’t really know is hard in any year, but this year it’s particularly hard.”

Raabe also brought up the notion of undecided voters who swung in Trump’s direction in the election’s 11th hour.

But he said that it may be too soon to tell what happened with the polls.

“I think these are unknowns still and I think some of these factors will be sorted out in the coming weeks and months as everybody takes a look to try to figure out what happened,” he said.

Although more analysis is necessary, Americans may have reverted back to the era of voting for the straight party ticket, Raabe said.

“We’re back with people voting straight ballots and that’s been borne out in the last two elections and very much so yesterday as far as I can see.”

Of lessons he hopes that pollsters got out of Tuesday’s election, turning to newer technology to reach voters and restructuring questions were at the top of Raabe’s list.

“I also think we just need to look backwards and do more analysis on what really did occur,” he said. “You had a super turnout yesterday and so, Trump actually performed well and Biden seems to perform just a little bit better — not as well as the polls would have predicted, but we’ll see in the end when all the mailed-in ballots are counted just how far off all these polls were.”

By Hannah Gaskill

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Maryland News Tagged With: election, outdated, Poll, polling, pollsters, projections

Poll Shows Marylanders on Board With Police Reform

October 12, 2020 by Maryland Matters

As Maryland legislative committees craft comprehensive police reform packages for the 2021 General Assembly session, they appear to have significant support from voters, according to a recently-completed poll.

The Goucher College Poll, conducted in late September and early October, found strong support for a variety of measures designed to crack down on police violence and seek more accountability for law enforcement:

  • 87% of Marylanders surveyed said they support creating a record of police misconduct cases that would be available to the public and other law enforcement agencies, while 10% said they would oppose such a requirement.
  • 85% said they support requiring that criminal misconduct charges against police officers be investigated by an independent state prosecutor rather than by an internal police affairs unit, while 10% said they were opposed.
  • 82% of poll respondents supported requiring police officers to undergo racial bias training, while 17% said they opposed a requirement.
  • 79% supported creating uniform statewide de-escalation and use-of-force policies for all Maryland police departments to follow, while 16% said they opposed.
  • 79% also supported increasing funding for police departments to hire more or better trained officers ― a proposal 19% opposed.
  • 60% said they support laws banning police from using chokeholds or strangleholds when making an arrest, while 35% opposed.
  • 54% said they support reducing the budget for the police department in their community and shifting the funds to social programs related to mental health, housing, and education, a concept that 43% opposed.

“Maryland residents are largely supportive of key police reforms that are currently being discussed by state lawmakers and have dominated our national discourse,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College, who worked with students to craft poll questions and conduct the poll. “Some of these proposals, like creating statewide use-of force policies and requiring police officers to undergo racial bias training, earn support from majorities of Democrats and Republicans. But there’s a mixed message on police budgets.”

Just 28% of those surveyed said they support the movement to “defund the police,” while 68% opposed it.

Two-thirds of survey respondents ― 66% ― said they viewed the police favorably, while 30% said they had an unfavorable view of law enforcement. Among Black Marylanders, 54% said they viewed the police favorably, while 41% said they viewed the police unfavorably. Among white Marylanders, police had a 73% to 24% favorable to unfavorable rating.

Sixty-five percent of residents said they view the Black Lives Matter movement favorably, compared to 29% percent who viewed it unfavorably. Among Black Marylanders, the numbers were 85% favorable and 11% unfavorable. Among white Marylanders, 56% viewed the movement favorably, compared to 38% who viewed BLM unfavorably.

The poll of 1,002 Maryland adults was taken Sept. 30-Oct. 4 and had a 3.1-point margin of error. Some of the questions in the poll surveyed 918 registered voters and carried a 3.2-point error margin.

But policing is not the top issue on the minds of Marylanders. Asked an open-ended question about the most important issue facing the state today, 30% cited the COVID-19 public health crisis, 22% said economic issues, 8% said education, 5% said health care generally, another 5% said politics and political leadership, while 4% said crime/criminal justice/policing. The environment and racism each were mentioned by 3% of Maryland adults.

Sixty-three percent of Marylanders said they believe the state is heading in the right direction ― a surprisingly rosy scenario compared to national polls. Thirty-one percent said the state is on the wrong track. In February ― before the coronavirus outbreak ― the right track-wrong track numbers for the state were 49% to 32%.

Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) continues to rack up high numbers in the Goucher poll. Seventy-one percent of adults surveyed ― including 69% of Democrats ― said they approved of the job Hogan was doing. Twenty-three percent said they disapproved, while 5% said they did not know and 1% refused to answer.

In February, Hogan’s job approval rating stood at 62%; 20% of Marylanders disapproved and 17% said they did not know.

Hogan is viewed a lot more favorably than the Republican Party. The GOP has a 35% to 61% favorable to unfavorable rating, compared to a 54% to 43% favorable to unfavorable rating for Democrats. That roughly comports with voter registration statistics in Maryland: As of a month ago, 55% of registered voters were Democrats while 25% were Republican. The rest belonged to smaller political parties or were unaffiliated.

In the Goucher poll, 26% of registered voters said they considered themselves conservative, while 44% described themselves as moderate and 28% called themselves progressive.

The first installment of the latest Goucher poll, released late last week, was on the presidential horse race in Maryland and measured voters’ attitudes on in-person vs. mail-in voting.

The third and final installment, to be released Tuesday morning, deals largely with COVID-19 in Maryland and the government response.

By Josh Kurtz

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Maryland News Tagged With: de-escalation, independent prosecutor, Maryland, misconduct, police reform, Poll, racial bias training, use of force, voters

Take the Talbot Spy Pulse Poll #7 – Grading Leaders and Organizations During COVID-19

May 3, 2020 by The Talbot Spy

This week, we want to take your temperature about several people and organizations related to helping us all get through the Covid-19 situation.
Click here to take the Sunday Survey!

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: 9 Brevities Tagged With: Poll

Talbot Spy Survey #5 Results: Serious Concern

April 22, 2020 by The Talbot Spy

While various political leaders may be making plans for a return to normal, it’s clear the people have serious doubts about returning to anything like business as usual for, in many cases, a few more months!

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: 9 Brevities Tagged With: Poll

Spy # 4 Poll Results: We Look Forward to What We Miss Most

April 15, 2020 by The Spy

We asked on Sunday what you most look forward to when we can move beyond the threat of the Covid-19 virus. We found a pretty clear consensus captured in the word cloud created from all of the responses. So many of you shared the same fine sentiments.
Thanks to all who responded. Look for another survey this Sunday in The Spy.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: 9 Brevities Tagged With: Poll

Take the Spy Pulse Poll #3 – Our Shared Experience

April 5, 2020 by The Spy

All of us are going through something unimaginable just a few weeks ago. And, since we started taking these surveys, we’ve noticed other publications are doing the same. A New York publication put some interesting questions to their readers. So, we thought we’d use a few of the questions and look not only at how our community feels about things, but also at how our feelings compare with neighbors to the north.
Look for results on Wednesday.
Click here to go to the survey.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: 9 Brevities Tagged With: Poll

The Pulse Poll Results: How Talbot County is Spending their Time

April 1, 2020 by The Talbot Spy

The Spy asked about how you are likely to spend time these days. We can only conclude, our readers are online, well read and well fed with a desire for reading even greater than the lure of tv movies. And, all of this is in between the likelihood that 93% of you suggested you’d be taking walks.

Most interesting, were all the other things you shared with us that you are doing. A word cloud captures the most mentioned activities…the larger the word, the more frequent the mention.

Word Cloud

The Results

 

The Spy will have a new Pulse Poll on Sunday

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: 9 Brevities, Archives Tagged With: coronavirus, Poll

Talbot Spy Questionnaire: Take the Pulse Results and New Poll

March 29, 2020 by The Talbot Spy

We asked you two questions about life as we find it today and many of you shared your views.

Good news for all who are fighting this pandemic – The Spy readers take the threat very seriously with over 95% of those responding that they see COVID-19 as a serious threat.

We all wonder just when social distancing might be less important. Not surprisingly, most just don’t know. Hopefully this means that we will rely upon experts and facts to make that determination. Of those who shared a view, the majority clearly think this remains a necessity through the month of May and possibly beyond.

The Spy’s Take the Pulse Survey allows readers to share their views. We published the results for readers to consider, acknowledging we do not have a random sample of citizens in the community.

Now it’s time for the next poll. Please share your opinion here.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: 9 Brevities Tagged With: Poll

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