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November 15, 2025

Talbot Spy

Nonpartisan Education-based News for Talbot County Community

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Md. Citizens Redistricting Commission Brings on National Election Law Expert as Consultant

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The Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission is bringing on Nathaniel Persily, a nationally recognized expert on redistricting, to help draw up their congressional and legislative maps.

Commission Co-chair Walter Olson, a senior fellow at Cato Institute’s Robert A. Levy Center for Constitutional Studies, announced at a Wednesday night meeting that Persily would serve as the panel’s adviser. He called Persily an “eminent” figure in the field of redistricting.

Redistricting expert Nathaniel Persily

Persily, the James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School, previously served as a court-appointed expert for the redrawing of Maryland’s legislative plan in 2002. He has also been appointed by courts to help redraw legislative or congressional districts in Connecticut, Georgia, New York and North Carolina.

Persily will serve as the commission’s chief map-drawer and resident redistricting expert, and will use the panel’s input to craft congressional and legislative maps.

Persily is advising commissions across the country as part of the current round of redistricting — including the Prince George’s County Redistricting Commission. His role will be paid, Department of Planning spokeswoman Kristin Fleckenstein said in an email, but an exact funding figure wasn’t immediately available Wednesday night.

The multi-partisan Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission was created by Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) to draw up congressional and legislative maps that he will propose to the General Assembly. Lawmakers will have the final say over what the state’s next set of maps look like, and Democrats hold a veto-proof majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate.

House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones (D-Baltimore County) and Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore City) announced their own bipartisan redistricting commission earlier this summer. That commission is chaired by former Department of Legislative Services Executive Director Karl Aro, who was appointed alongside Persily to redraw the state’s legislative maps after a 2002 lawsuit overturned the state’s legislative map.

Both of the commissions are planning to hold public hearings after Census redistricting data is adjusted to comply with Maryland law by having incarcerated individuals reallocated to their last known address. Fleckenstein said at the meeting that the data is expected to be ready next week.

By Bennett Leckrone

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Analysis: Census Data and the Political Reordering to Come in Md.

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Baltimore City leaders knew they were coming.

And yet, the newest population numbers from the U.S. Census, delivered Thursday on the hottest day of the year, hit them like a torrent of cold water in the face.

Baltimore’s dramatic 5.7% population loss over the past 10 years means the city is sure to face a corresponding loss of political clout in the decade ahead — no matter how many allies it has in the highest echelons of power in Annapolis.

That’s one of many political threads that will be pulled over the next several months, as state politicians and policymakers seek to use the Census data as part of the recipe for congressional and legislative district maps that will be in place until the elections of 2032.

Baltimore wasn’t the only Maryland jurisdiction to see significant population losses — far from it. But the latest numbers did produce a significant degree of handwringing in the city.

Donald C. Fry, president and CEO of the business group the Greater Baltimore Committee, called it “unacceptable for a city with the many positive attributes Baltimore has, from its affordability, diversity, strong neighborhoods, historical and cultural attractions to world class healthcare and universities, to lose residents.”

Baltimore Mayor Brandon M. Scott (D) scrambled to put the dreary numbers in historical context and asserted that city leaders are putting policies in place to stanch the bleeding and slowly build back the city’s population.

“Today’s population figures are the culmination of more than 70 years of population decline, showing why we must pivot from the status quo towards inclusive economic policies that improve the lives of our legacy residents, while attracting new residents,” Scott said Thursday. “Understanding that much of Baltimore’s 21st century population loss has been driven by an exodus of African American households, my administration will be focused on equitable economic development. We can no longer leave any corner of our city behind.”

Census figures help determine how much federal aid is distributed to states and local jurisdictions, but they are also key weapons in the raw redistricting political battles that will follow.

Overlaying Maryland’s current congressional and legislative district maps with the map of of the latest county-by-county population trends is an interesting exercise.

Even the most gerrymandered political maps must start at the corners of the state — far Western Maryland and the Lower Eastern Shore. And at both poles of the state, the population, with the exception of Wicomico County on the Shore, has declined over the past decade. That’s part of a national trend that saw rural population drop sharply while it increased in urban and suburban areas — and will have implications for what congressional and legislative boundaries in Maryland look like.

From the minute he took office, Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) has sought to inject himself in the redistricting process — or at least take the power away from the Democratic supermajorities in the General Assembly and, by extension, the most senior Democrats in the state’s congressional delegation. But the fact remains that legislative leaders, working in tandem with U.S. House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.), will have the most say.

For State House Democrats, knowing that Republican legislatures will attempt to help the GOP seize control of the U.S. House of Representatives by muscling through baldly gerrymandered maps, there will be temptations to create an 8-0 Democratic congressional map in Maryland (the state delegation currently has seven Democrats and one Republican). But the Census figures show that population trends in certain red states weren’t as stark as they could have been — meaning Republicans won’t have quite as much power to bludgeon Democrats in those places as they might have expected.

“Early read: based on the strong urban and weaker rural numbers I’m seeing, this is a much more favorable Census count than minority advocacy groups/Dems had feared,” Dave Wasserman, the House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report tweeted Thursday.

As a result, Maryland Democratic strategists believe, party leaders are more likely to try to produce a 7-1 Democratic congressional map again — albeit one that is cleaner, with fewer tortured contours, and that is less susceptible to lawsuit than the post-2010 Census map.

Baltimore City currently has three congressional districts cutting through its borders. Anne Arundel County has four. Howard County has three. Baltimore County has four. The result is messy, nonsensical districts in the central part of the state. That may change.

With population losses on the Eastern Shore, the 1st Congressional District, held by the state’s lone Republican member of Congress, Rep. Andrew P. Harris, will probably need to gain more territory on the western side of the Chesapeake Bay. Where those precincts are added may determine how competitive a re-election race Harris will face in 2022 — most likely against former state Del. Heather R. Mizeur (D).

Maryland mapmakers actually have more flexibility when it comes to drawing legislative districts — where population variations of as much as 10% are permissible (each congressional district must contain the exact same population, to the extent possible). Even so, Baltimore City, which has steadily lost representation over the past few decades, is likely to lose more seats.

It’s already accepted wisdom in Annapolis that the 44th District, which currently contains a one-member House subdistrict in Baltimore City and two House seats in Baltimore County, will push out into the county exclusively — meaning the legislative tenure of Roxane Prettyman (D), who has been recommended by the Baltimore City Democratic Central Committee to fill a vacancy in District 44A, could be short-lived.

Another Baltimore City legislative district that has seen modest population growth, District 46, may have to lose some city precincts to make whole other city districts — and could extend south toward Glen Burnie or even BWI Thurgood Marshall Airport.

Howard County’s population growth means it may no longer have to share one legislative district with Baltimore County. Frederick County’s population growth means it may not have to share a legislative district with Carroll County. Southern Maryland’s representation in Annapolis is also likely to grow — though Democrats undoubtedly will try to maximize their advantage in fast-growing Charles County, which, according to the latest Census figures, is now over 50% Black.

And population losses in Garrett and Allegany counties mean the 1st legislative district will necessarily have to push farther east into Washington County.

The Maryland Department of Planning will now take the Census figures and spend the next few weeks adjusting them to account for the state’s incarcerated population. Under state law, incarcerated individuals are countered as residents of the jurisdictions where they previously lived, rather than the jurisdiction of the prisons where they are serving their sentences. This could help limit Baltimore City’s population loss to a small degree.

Hogan and legislative leaders are relying on the work of dueling redistricting commissions to help guide them on the maps they will propose in an upcoming special session of the General Assembly to finalize a congressional map, and during the regular 2022 session when legislative lines must be adopted. Even though Democrats have the upper hand, Hogan was already attempting to grab the moral high ground on Thursday.

“All across our state, Marylanders are demanding an end to partisan gerrymandering from partisan politicians in the legislature and supporting the work of the independent and nonpartisan Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission,” he said on Twitter.

By Josh Kurtz

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

2020 Census Data: Fewer than Half of Marylanders are White, Baltimore Population Slips, Montgomery Surpasses 1M

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Maryland became more diverse over the last decade and the number of residents who identify as white alone dropped below half the state’s population, reflecting a nationwide trend, according to U.S. Census bureau data released Thursday afternoon.

The state’s overall population increased 7% since 2010, up to 6,177,224 residents in 2020. It is the first time the state’s population has topped more than 6 million residents in a decennial Census.

Montgomery County accounts for about one-sixth of the state population, and became the first jurisdiction in state history to register more than 1 million residents in the Census.

The data released Thursday also confirmed continued population loss in the city of Baltimore. In 1950, the city had just under a million residents — 949,708 — but that figure has been sliding ever since.

There were 585,708 Baltimoreans counted in the 2020 Census.

Here are four takeaways from the data:

Less than half of Marylanders identified as white

Less than half of Maryland’s population now identifies as white alone, according to Census data. The state saw a 10.5% decrease in the number of people who identify as white alone between 2010 and 2020, according to Census data, and that figure now stands at 48.7%.

Every county in the state saw decreases in the number of people identifying as white alone over the past decade.

The percentage of the population identifying as Hispanic or Latino increased from 8.2% in 2010 to 11.8% in 2020.

The percentage of Marylanders identifying as Asian alone increased from 5.5% in 2010 to 6.8% in 2020, and the percentage that identifies as Black or African American alone increased slightly from 29.4% in 2010 to 29.5% in 2020, according to the data.

Those figures reflect increasing diversity across the United States, according to Census data. The percentage of Americans identifying as white alone fell 8.6% nationwide between 2010 and 2020.

Garrett County had the largest white population in Maryland — 95.5% of county residents — while Prince George’s County had the smallest — 12.9%. The percentage of Prince George’s County residents who identify as white alone fell by nearly 25% over the last decade; the county ranks 11th nationwide for its percentage of non-white population, according to the Census Bureau.

Baltimore’s population dropped below 600,000 for the first time in a century

While Baltimore County grew between 2010 and 2020, the city of Baltimore saw yet another decline in population during the last decade.

The city had a population of 585,708 as of the 2020 Census compared with 620,961 in 2010, a 5.7% decrease. The 1910 Census was the last time Baltimore’s population was under 600,000. Baltimore’s population has been in decline since it topped out at 949,708 in 1950, according to the city’s planning department.

In a Thursday news release, Baltimore Mayor Brandon M. Scott (D) said he plans to launch a growth plan for 2030 aimed at improving quality of life in the city.

“Today’s population figures are the culmination of more than 70 years of population decline, showing why we must pivot from the status quo towards inclusive economic policies that improve the lives of our legacy residents, while attracting new residents,” Scott said in a release. “Understanding that much of Baltimore’s 21st century population loss has been driven by an exodus of African American households, my administration will be focused on equitable economic development. We can no longer leave any corner of our city behind.”

Baltimore’s 5.7% population percentage drop wasn’t the most dramatic in the state: Allegany County lost 9.3% of its population between 2010 and 2020, dropping from 75,087 to 68,106.

Somerset County saw a 7% decrease, with its population decreasing from 26,470 to 24,620.

Kent County, Maryland’s smallest by population, saw a 4.9% decrease, dipping below 20,000 to 19,198.

Dorchester, Garrett and Talbot counties also saw population decreases.

Montgomery County tops 1 million residents; Frederick, Howard and Charles saw massive growth

Montgomery County became the first Maryland jurisdiction in history with a population topping 1 million in a decennial census. The county’s official population grew 9.3% in the last decade and now stands at 1,062,061.

Montgomery’s population has more than doubled since the 1970 Census, when there were 522,809 residents.

Frederick County was home to the fastest growth in Maryland, with its population increasing by 16.4% between 2010 and 2020.

Howard County saw a 15.8% increase in its population, and Charles County saw a 13.7% increase.

In all, seven of Maryland’s “Big Eight” counties saw population growth over the past decade.

Prince George’s County’s population grew by 12%; Anne Arundel County saw a 9.4% increase and now has a higher population than Baltimore City at 588,261; Harford County saw a 6.6% increase; and Baltimore County’s population increased by 6.1%.

Southern Maryland’s growth wasn’t confined to Charles County: St. Mary’s County saw a population increase of 8.2% and Calvert County’s population increased by 4.6%.

What does this data mean for redistricting?

The raw, untabulated data released by Census officials Thursday will be used by lawmakers and redistricting commissions across the country for mapmaking — but it will need some adjustments before it’s ready to be used in Maryland’s redistricting process.

Maryland Department of Planning officials will need several weeks to adjust the data to comply with Maryland law and move currently incarcerated people back to their last known address. Once that adjustment is finished, that data will be used by Maryland’s dueling redistricting commissions to draw up proposed congressional and legislative maps.

By Bennett Leckrone, Danielle E. Gaines, and William F. Zorzi.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

General Assembly Leaders Announce Legislative Redistricting Commission

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The Maryland General Assembly has launched its own commission to draw new congressional and legislative district maps.

Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore City) and House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones (D-Baltimore County) announced the Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission and its members in a Thursday press release.

The bipartisan commission will be chaired by Karl Aro, the former executive director of the non-partisan Department of Legislative Services. Ferguson and Jones will also sit on the commission, alongside four other lawmakers:

  • Senate President Pro Tempore Melony Griffith (D-Prince George’s County);
  • House Majority Leader Eric Luedtke (D-Montgomery County);
  • Senate Minority Leader Bryan W. Simonaire (R-Anne Arundel County); and
  • House Minority Leader Jason Buckel (R-Allegany County).

Commission members will “focus on developing new map configurations to best account for Maryland’s seven percent population growth,” according to the release.

Jones and Ferguson pledged a bipartisan and transparent redistricting process in Thursday’s release. The commission will hold 10 in-person town hall meetings across the state and two virtual meetings beginning in August. Those meetings will be live-streamed, according to the release.

Jones said in the release that the commission’s goal will be to “ensure that Maryland’s representation reflects its citizens.”

“The General Assembly will pass fair maps based on the robust public engagement and feedback of this Commission,” Jones said.

Ferguson said public input will be a virtual part of the commission’s work.

“We believe it is critical to hear from those we represent, and the Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission serves as the General Assembly’s vehicle to hear from Marylanders across the State in a bipartisan and transparent manner before proposing maps for the Legislature to consider,” Ferguson said in a written statement. “The Commission is an essential step in the redistricting process to ensure fair representation for Maryland’s democracy.”

The commission’s formation comes as the multi-partisan Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission — formed by Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan (R) earlier this year to draw up maps he will propose to the General Assembly — is already conducting a round of public hearings ahead of the release of Census redistricting data.

That nine-member commission, made up of three Republicans, three Democrats and three non-affiliated voters, has held hearings for the Baltimore City and Harford and Anne Arundel Counties, the Eastern Shore and the western, northern and southern regions of the state. During those hearings, residents have repeatedly urged commission members to keep communities whole in proposed maps.

“Governor Hogan has handed over his power to a citizens advisory commission to ensure it’s the people of Maryland who are drawing the maps — not politicians or party bosses in back rooms. The citizens commission has already held several public meetings across the state, gaining direct input from Marylanders,” Hogan spokesman Michael Ricci said Thursday evening.

Former Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman (R) and former state Sen. James Brochin (D-Baltimore County) – who recently formed the group Fair Maps Maryland alongside former Hogan communications strategist Doug Mayer to urge the General Assembly to adopt maps from the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission, criticized the formation of the legislative commission in a Thursday statement.

“This is real simple – politicians shouldn’t be drawing their own districts and picking their own voters, and unfortunately this new commission does exactly that,” the pair said.

Joanne Antoine, the executive director of the fair elections group Common Cause Maryland, said she would’ve liked to see members of the public on the legislative commission, but added that she was encouraged by the General Assembly’s move to hold public hearings.

“I think this is a great opportunity for Marylanders to not only provide input on their communities, but more importantly highlight how the General Assembly has failed them to some extent,” Antoine said.

Antoine had hosted a virtual Tame the Gerrymander event to promote public participation in the redistricting process just before the legislative commission was announced. Tame the Gerrymander — a coalition of advocacy organizations pushing for fair maps in Maryland — is currently mounting a campaign to get the public involved in the process.

At that event, advocates stressed that public input will be key in the state’s redistricting process, and urged Marylanders to participate. Fred McBride, a redistricting and voting rights policy specialist for the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, encouraged residents to use free mapping tools like Districr to draw up their own maps and come up with concrete suggestions.

“It’s no longer something we have to sit back and watch and wait for,” McBride said, “It’s something we should be participating in.”

Antoine said in an interview that the dueling commissions may confuse residents, and said she thinks the work of both commissions will be important in the coming months.

“Ultimately the decision is in the hands of the lawmakers,” Antoine said. “The work of the (Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission) is important, and the feedback they’re collecting is just as important too, but I think the members of the General Assembly need to hear from the public.”

The maps the Citizens Redistricting Commission draws up and Hogan proposes will ultimately be subject to approval from the General Assembly, where Democrats hold a veto-proof majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate.

Exactly what the maps drawn up by either commission will look like remains to be seen, although Hogan laid out several requirements for maps in his executive order creating the commission, including incorporating single-member districts into their proposed maps to the extent possible.

By Bennett Leckrone

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Nonprofit Group Formed to Endorse Md. Redistricting Commission Maps

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A bipartisan pair of former lawmakers that lost narrow elections in 2018 have formed a nonprofit group to pressure the General Assembly to accept new legislative and congressional district maps being drafted by a commission created by Republican Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr.

Fair Maps Maryland is the brainchild of former Hogan communications strategist Doug Mayer, former Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman (R) and former state Sen. James Brochin (D-Baltimore County). The group will push lawmakers to adopt the maps that will eventually be drawn up by the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission.

The commission, a nine-member, multi-partisan panel created by executive order to draw up congressional and legislative maps that Hogan will propose to the General Assembly, is currently conducting public hearings ahead of the release of Census redistricting data later this summer.

The commission is still months away from drawing up maps, but Fair Maps Maryland launched Thursday to support the commission’s work. The group aims to abolish “politically motivated gerrymandering” and push for the full implementation of the commission’s “nonpartisan redistricting plan,” according to a press release.

Mayer will serve as the group’s spokesman, and Kittleman and Brochin will serve as its first two board members. All three men have ties to Hogan: Brochin endorsed the governor in 2018, arguing that challenger Ben Jealous (D) was moving the Democratic party too far to the left; Hogan appointed Kittleman to the Maryland Workers Compensation Commission after he was ousted as county executive by Calvin B. Ball III (D); and Mayer worked in the Hogan administration for years.

And although Mayer departed the Hogan administration in 2018, he has continued to work as a political strategist. He most recently headed up Marylanders for Tax Fairness, a group that opposed the new digital advertising tax and advocated against overriding a Hogan veto of that bill.

The Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission is currently undertaking a round of regional public hearings before untabulated Census redistricting data is released in August. Although the commission’s maps are months away from being drawn, Mayer said he was confident any maps the commission submits will be an improvement over the state’s current configuration.

“An overstimulated toddler could draw fairer maps on the back of a cocktail napkin,” Mayer said.

The group’s Thursday launch was accompanied by a 60-second advertisement entitled “Pop Quiz” that takes aim at Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District, comparing the district’s odd shape to a fighting crab and a broken-winged pterodactyl, borrowing a phrase from a federal judge.

A website for the group also highlights the 3rd Congressional District as “a prime example of gerrymandering and the absurdities it creates.”

The Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission is Hogan’s latest bid to reform the state’s redistricting process. His previous attempts to do so through legislation have been rebuffed by the General Assembly, where Democrats hold a veto-proof majority in both the House of Delegates and Senate. Any maps that Hogan eventually proposes can ultimately be redrawn by the General Assembly.

Hogan’s executive order creating the commission laid out a slew of requirements for proposed districts. The commission’s districts must “respect natural boundaries” and, to the extent practical, keep communities whole. The districts must also be compact and comply with state, federal, judicial and constitutional requirements.

Hogan’s order further bars the commission from taking into account where incumbents and potential candidates live and the political affiliation of residents.

The executive order also requires, to the extent practicable, that the commission draw single-member districts for the House of Delegates.

Maryland is one of only a few states that currently uses both single and multi-member legislative districts — a practice that some residents have opposed during the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission’s first round of public hearings.

The commission has conducted public hearings for the northern, southern and western regions of the state, as well as the Eastern Shore since the beginning of June. Residents who have testified at those public hearings have overwhelmingly urged commission members to keep communities whole in their proposed maps, with single-member legislative districts also being a common request.

Other residents have urged the commission to be flexible and consider using both single multi-member districts.

Some have criticized Hogan’s requirements for what the commission can and cannot consider: At the commission’s public hearing for the northern Maryland region, Maryland Legislative Coalition co-leader Edward Johnson said panelists should “think outside the box”  in drawing up proposed maps and consider inviting the General Assembly to participate in the process.

“Unless you invite all stakeholders to participate and give their opinions during meetings of the commission, you are Hogan’s commission and not a bipartisan citizens commission, which should be your intention,” Johnson said.

Information about how Fair Maps Maryland is funded, and exactly how much cash the organization has, was not readily available. Mayer said the group will register as a grassroots lobbying organization in November, at which point more specific funding information will be available. He added that the organization currently has at least “six figures” in financial commitments from Marylanders.

“We’re very confident that we’ll be able to have the resources necessary to make sure Marylanders understand what’s going on with redistricting in Maryland, and why it’s important,” Mayer said.

The nonprofit group RepresentUs found that Maryland and dozens of other states are under “extreme” risk for gerrymandering in a report earlier this year. The Thursday release from Fair Maps Maryland charged that Maryland “is widely regarded as one of the worst offenders in the nation” when it comes to partisan redistricting.

Maryland’s 2012 congressional district map faced multiple court challenges and was addressed by the U.S. Supreme Court three times, ultimately cementing the justices’ stance that it is not the judiciary’s place to settle disputes over partisan gerrymandering in Maryland or other states.

“Gerrymandering not only attempts to silence political opponents, but it also discourages progress and innovation by preventing the free exchange of ideas and deepening political divisions,” Brochin said in the release. “I look forward to being part of Fair Maps Maryland and working hard so that every Marylander, in every corner of our state, can enjoy their right to free and fair elections.”

The group is also pushing for a transparent map-drawing process,  that mapmaking was largely done behind closed doors a decade ago.

“Ensuring fair electoral maps for Marylanders isn’t just about good government and serving the public in the present moment — it’s also about safeguarding our democratic processes for the future,” Kittleman said in a statement. “Over time, gerrymandering has eroded voting rights on both sides of the aisle, across our country. As Marylanders, and as Americans, we must stand up for what is right and set an example for the rest of the nation.”

The map-making process is expected to reach fever pitch in late September, when final U.S. Census bureau figures are released. The release of Census data was delayed this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mayer said Fair Maps Maryland’s board will likely expand, and the group hopes to partner with “like-minded organizations” to raise awareness about the redistricting process.

By Bennett Leckrone

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Redistricting Commission Urged To Adopt Single-Member Delegate Districts At First Public Hearing

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Eastern Shore residents urged the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission to adopt single-member legislative districts at a virtual hearing Wednesday evening, with some charging that the state’s current hybrid model is unfair for voters.

The executive order from Gov Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) that created the commission requires that, to the extent practicable, commissioners include single-member delegate districts in the proposed maps. The state’s current House of Delegates districts vary between single-member and multi-member districts, a system that some Eastern Shore residents oppose.

Bill Satterfield, a Wicomico County resident, urged members of the commission to adopt single-member districts. He said the state’s current system means that some voters have greater power in the legislature compared to others.

“Everybody should have one vote for one person,” Satterfield said.

Sen. Mary Beth Carozza (R-Lower Shore) likewise urged members of the commission to move toward single-member districts. Carozza herself was elected in a single member House district, District 38C in Wicomico County, before being elected to the Senate.

“I can speak to the effectiveness of serving my constituents in that capacity,” Carozza said.

Muir Boda, a Salisbury City Council member, said multi-member districts often confuse residents over who to contact on legislative issues.

Carozza also urged commissioners to keep the Eastern Shore whole in the redistricting process. The entire region is currently included in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District, which is home to the lone Republican member of Maryland’s congressional delegation, Rep. Andrew P. Harris.

Boda urged commissioners to create “contiguous” districts that keep communities together. He noted the vast difference between Ocean City on the Lower Shore and Taneytown in Carroll County, and said the commission may want to consider creating a district that would include parts of Southern Maryland along with the Eastern Shore.

Community outreach was another prominent topic at the meeting, with some residents urging commission members to better publicize future rounds of public hearings. Demba Ndiaye said he received notice of the meeting just days before it was going to take place.

“This commission, at this time, needs to focus more on outreach and communication to get more people involved in this process,” Ndiaye said.

Moonyene Jackson-Amis, a Talbot County resident, urged the commission to do more intensive outreach to communities on the topic of single-member and multi-member districts. She said each community will be impacted differently by how districts are drawn.

“I don’t know really what the impact would actually be for the population that I’m most concerned about,” Jackson-Amis said. “We need more representation from the African American community.”

Kathleen Hetherington (I), the president of Howard Community College and one of the commission’s co-chairs, said Wednesday that more public hearings will take place as the commission draws up maps.

The multi-partisan commission is tasked with drawing up congressional and state legislative maps for Hogan to submit to the General Assembly, and is currently holding a round of public hearings before the release of 2020 Census redistricting data. The maps that Hogan submits will ultimately be subject to approval and revision by the General Assembly.

By Bennett Leckrone

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Maryland Will Keep 8 Seats in U.S. House, Census Officials Say

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Maryland will keep its eight seats in the House of Representatives in the next round of redistricting, Census Bureau officials announced Monday.

Maryland joins 36 other states keeping the same amount of U.S. Representatives during the next round of redistricting.

For six states, the long-awaited census results mean they’ll gain representation in Congress: Fast-growing Texas will add two seats, and five states will each add one seat: Florida (which surpassed New York to become the third-largest state), North Carolina, Colorado, Montana and Oregon.

Because the House must remain at 435 lawmakers, seven states will have fewer representatives, after either losing population over the last 10 years or not growing as quickly as other states. New York, California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia all will see their federal delegations shrink by one legislator starting in 2023.

Overall, there were 331,449,281 people living in the U.S. on April 1, 2020, an increase of 7.4% since 2010. That’s the slowest growth in a decade since the 1930s, and the second-slowest growth rate in U.S. history.

Maryland had a population of 6,177,224 in the 2020 Census, according to the newly released data, representing a 7% increase since 2010. That’s a drop from the 9% increase the state saw between 2000 and 2010, according to the data.

The apportionment changes, including population totals, are the first round of data to be released from the 2020 census.

Block-by-block population data that state officials need to draw districts of equal size will be released by Aug. 16 as an untabulated “legacy format summary file,” according to a Census Bureau release.

Although that data will be available as a legacy format summary file in mid-August, some states might be faced with an even longer wait for specific results. According to a separate release from the Census Bureau, “most states lack the capacity or resources to tabulate the data from these summary files on their own,” and tabulated data will be available by Sept. 30.

Even after Maryland officials receive the data, it will need to be adjusted to comply with Maryland law and have incarcerated individuals reallocated to their last known address, according to the Maryland Department of Planning website. State officials estimate that process will take at least an additional 30 days before the redistricting data is finalized.

Census officials originally planned to get redistricting data to states by March 31, but that date was pushed back after the COVID-19 pandemic waylaid their counting process.

Those delays could put Maryland lawmakers — and candidates for Congress and the General Assembly uncertain whether they’ll still be living within a district’s boundaries — on a time crunch: While Maryland law doesn’t set a strict deadline for drawing congressional districts, state legislative districts must be proposed by Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) to the General Assembly by Jan. 12, 2022. Those recommendations will become law unless lawmakers tack on their own changes by Feb. 26.

The candidacy deadline for Republican and Democratic congressional and legislative hopefuls is Feb. 22, 2022.

In 2010, the General Assembly met in a special session in October to approve congressional district lines.

Some states with even tighter deadlines written into law might have to change their redistricting laws to cope with the delays, according to a Brennan Center Analysis.

Hogan’s multi-partisan Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission, which he created via executive order earlier this year, is currently mulling how to work around the Census delays, commission co-chair Walter Olson (R) told Maryland Matters.

“It’s going to mean that we get hard, usable numbers months later than we would have hoped,” Olson said, adding that working around the Census delay will be among the commission’s top agenda items.

“The goal is to get as much work as we can done, including many hearings, before the Census Bureau comes through,” Olson said.

The redistricting commission, which earlier this month announced its full membership, will conduct public hearings in the coming months before making final recommendations to Hogan. They’ll aim to recommend geographically compact districts that aren’t meant to favor any party over another – and will also consider dividing state legislative maps into single-member districts.

Defending the census process

Typically, the state-level population data released Monday would have been provided by the end of December, but that process was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The census tallies how many people are living in the U.S. on April 1, and last year, that date fell shortly after states had issued lockdown orders aimed at curbing spread of the coronavirus. That scrambled plans for following up door-to-door with those who did not fill out the form.

“We advertised on pizza boxes, instead of during basketball games,” said Ron Jarmin, acting director of the Census Bureau. “Our partners joined us in reaching people at food banks and in school cafeterias, instead of promoting the census at county fairs.”

Other Americans became harder to reach due to wildfires and hurricanes. The Trump administration also interfered in the counting process, pursuing policies that some feared would make immigrants less likely to respond and cutting the operation short.

As they announced the new population figures, Census officials defended the accuracy of the counting process, saying the delayed door-to-door follow-ups allowed for more complete responses.

While the final numbers show a slower growth rate than what had been projected, affecting the final allocation of legislative seats, the population numbers for most states were still within 1% of the bureau’s estimates.

Under the new congressional districts, which will go into effect for the 2022 elections, each member of the House will represent an average of 761,000 residents.

The biggest population gains regionally were in the South and the West, with Southern states growing by 10.2% and Western states by 9.2%. The Northeast grew by 4.1%, and Midwestern states showed a 3.1% rise in population.

That followed trends underway since the 1940s, with 84 House seats shifting South and West during that time frame, Census officials said Monday.

By Bennett Leckrone and Laura Olson

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Could First District Turn Blue? Report Offers Possible Map

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After turning the state’s Sixth Congressional District blue following the 2010 Census, Maryland Democrats could set their sights on the state’s sole remaining Republican lawmaker, Rep. Andy Harris, during the congressional redistricting that will follow the 2020 Census.

A map drawn by one political analyst shows it would be relatively easy for Democratic state lawmakers to shut out Maryland Republicans from Congress by shifting the boundaries of the state’s eight congressional districts.

David Wasserman, writing in The Cook Political Report (subscription required), said the map would result in a 35-point leftward swing for the First District. The new district would have voted for Joe Biden by 15 points in 2020; current First District voters chose Donald Trump by 20 points in the 2020 presidential race.

Wasserman is House Editor for The Cook Political Report, where he is responsible for analyzing U.S. House races and is recognized as one of the nation’s top election forecasters. He also is a contributor to NBC News.

Maryland’s other seven congressional districts would remain overwhelmingly Democratic with his map, voting for Biden by at least 20 points, Wasserman wrote in his Maryland redistricting preview and on Twitter.

Wasserman developed his map using Dave’s Redistricting App, which allows users to explore congressional redistricting options.

One Democrat who has filed to challenge Harris in the First District noted Wasserman’s analysis, but suggested opposition to such a big change.

On her campaign website, Heather Mizeur, a former state delegate and gubernatorial candidate who lives in Kent County, wrote:

“We don’t want a gerrymandered district. We want a fair district. The right answer in how it gets drawn at the end of the day is somewhere in between these extreme shifts.

“What we know for sure is that the district will be redrawn, it will get more competitive, and we are and will continue to be the campaign best positioned to defeat Andy Harris when it happens.”

The Maryland map currently in use (below) was approved in 2011 using data from the 2010 Census. A legal challenge to that map ended in 2019 when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the courts have no role in partisan gerrymandering claims.

Statewide_reduced

Partisan gerrymandering of congressional districts can have dramatic effects on the party control of the House.

In the Atlas of Redistricting, Wasserman and others writing at FiveThirtyEight looked at congressional districts based on several different factors.

Their analysis showed that if districts were gerrymandered to favor Democrats, the party would be expected to have 251 seats in the House compared to 184 for Republicans. If districts were gerrymandered to favor Republicans, the GOP would be expected to have 264 seats to 171 for Democrats.

The U.S. Census Bureau, citing the COVID-19 pandemic, announced in February that redistricting data would be released to all states by Sept. 30, six months later than its April 1 deadline.

The bureau will deliver apportionment counts (which determine how many representatives each state will have) to the president by April 30, four months later than normal. Maryland is expected to maintain its eight seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

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Maryland Faces ‘Extreme’ Threat of Gerrymandering, New Report Says

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Maryland is under “extreme” risk for gerrymandering when lawmakers draw up new election districts, according to a new report from an anti-corruption watchdog group.

The Gerrymandering Threat Index from the nonprofit group RepresentUs lists Maryland, alongside 26 other states, in the highest risk category for gerrymandering. States are listed under the group’s “extreme” risk category for giving “politicians complete control over an often-secretive, poorly-protected redistricting process.”

RepresentUs considered five questions when determining a state’s threat level for gerrymandering:

  • Can politicians control how election maps are drawn?
  • Can election maps be drawn in secret?
  • Can election maps be rigged for partisan gain?
  • Are the legal standards weak?
  • And, are rigged election maps hard to challenge in court?

The report cites Maryland’s Democratic supermajority as a flag for potential gerrymandering, since the state relies on the legislature to approve maps. Maryland’s governor initially crafts congressional and legislative maps that are presented to the General Assembly. Lawmakers can pass a resolution (not subject to veto) changing the legislative districts. The Maryland Constitution sets some requirements for legislative districts, including that they must be compact and give “due regard” to jurisdictional boundaries.

Congressional district maps aren’t subject to the same restrictions under the Maryland Constitution. The governor can veto the legislature’s proposed congressional district map —but lawmakers could override a veto from Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R), as they’ve done on several key pieces of legislation during the 2021 session and throughout his tenure.

Hogan has repeatedly attempted to create a bipartisan redistricting process since he took office, but his efforts have failed to pass the General Assembly. In January, he signed an executive order creating a bipartisan commission to make recommendations for the congressional and legislative maps that he will submit to the legislature ahead of the 2022 election.

Attempts to challenge the state’s congressional districts in court have also failed, with the U.S. Supreme Court declaring in 2019 that federal judges shouldn’t be the ones to settle disputes on gerrymandering.

That high court ruling came after a panel of federal judges ordered the state’s 6th Congressional District redrawn, arguing that the district had been unconstitutionally drawn to benefit Democrats.

Rep. John P. Sarbanes’ (D-Md.) omnibus election reform proposal, the For the People Act, would include a congressional redistricting overhaul and ban partisan gerrymandering. The sweeping reforms would also require states to use bipartisan, independent commissions to draw district lines.

The RepresentUs report lists the For the People Act as a “remarkable opportunity” to end federal gerrymandering.

“Ultimately, a system-wide crisis calls for a system-wide solution,” the report reads.

In all, the Gerrymandering Threat Index lists 35 states as having a high or extreme risk for partisan gerrymandering in the next round of redistricting. Two of Maryland’s neighboring states, Delaware and West Virginia, are also listed as having an “extreme” risk for gerrymandering. Pennsylvania is given a “moderate” rating, and Virginia a “low” rating.

Virginia voters last November approved a nonpartisan redistricting process.

By Bennett Leckrone

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Census Data Delay Likely Means No Redistricting Session This Fall in Md.

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The U.S. Census Bureau’s decision to delay releasing population data until fall almost certainly guarantees that Maryland lawmakers won’t redraw the state’s political boundaries before next year, political analysts said on Tuesday.

The bureau originally planned to get results of the 2020 Census to states by March 31. But officials announced on Friday that they will provide it by Sept. 30 instead.

They blamed the delay on the COVID-19 crisis, which made surveying every household in the country, a labor-intensive process that involves millions of face-to-face interactions, more difficult.

Maryland and other states will use the data — once they get it — to craft congressional and legislative boundaries that will be used for the next five election cycles, beginning with U.S. House and General Assembly contests in 2022.

The delay in receiving population data makes it highly unlikely the legislature will meet in special session this fall, according to three people knowledgeable about the process.

Instead, lawmakers will have to tackle congressional and legislative redistricting when they convene in January for the 2021 session.

There is no way to replicate the more generous timeline that lawmakers had in 2011, said Patrick H. Murray, a former chief of staff for the late Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr., now the top aide to Baltimore County Executive John A. Olszewski Jr. (D).

For that redistricting, then Gov. Martin J. O’Malley (D) announced a redistricting committee in the summer, the committee drafted a congressional map in early October and the legislature convened a special session to consider it later that month, Murray recalled.

Given advances in computer software since the 2011 redistricting, lawmakers and their staffs won’t necessarily need a lot of time to draw new lines, said Daniel M. Clements, a retired lawyer and longtime Democratic activist who has been involved in past redistricting efforts.

But pitched battles that often occur internally — among incumbent members of Congress and the General Assembly over various precincts — can take time to resolve.

The 2022 primary election is set for June 28. And the deadline for candidates to file is Feb. 22.

Assuming it does not get pushed back, legislators will have less than six weeks to conclude a process that is fraught with political intrigue and where emotions can run hot.

“You will have that piece, but the shorter time means they just have to resolve it quicker,” Clements said.

In January, Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) created a nine-person redistricting commission to study Maryland’s population changes, take public input and draw a set of boundaries that he can submit to the legislature.

The panel will have three Democrats, three Republicans and three voters who aren’t registered with any political party.

Cato Institute senior fellow Walter Olson, a Republican; retired federal judge Alex Williams, a Democrat; and Howard Community College President Kathleen Hetherington, an independent, will serve as co-chairs.

The other six slots will be filled by a group of applicants who put their names forward prior to the Feb. 12 deadline.

Olson would not disclose the number of people that applied, but he described them as “an impressive and diverse group of applicants.”

The governor’s commission will hold statewide hearings once it is empaneled.

Olson said the delay in Census data compresses the amount of time the panel will have to do their work.

“Our work has to be done later and with somewhat more time pressure than would have been predicted,” he said. “We have our assignment, which is to propose maps for U.S. House [districts] and for the General Assembly. Whether a special session occurs or not is not part of our to-do list.”

Speaking on WBAL Radio, Hogan again slammed Democratic leaders in the General Assembly for how they have drawn lines in the past and for rebuffing his efforts to take line-drawing out of the hands of legislators.

He pledged to submit the commission’s maps as his own, “without any influence or tampering.”

“I have the power as governor to draw districts,” he added. After that, he conceded, “it’s a battle between the executive branch and the legislative branch.”

By Bruce DePuyt

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