Since watching the Donald Trump show a week ago, I have been trying to figure out what is going on with politics. The CNN town hall meeting (aka The Donald Trump show) was forcefully condemned by some and welcomed by others. Seventy minutes of Trump’s lying arrogance nauseated many of us but was welcomed by others, including many Democrats. Trump’s cavalier rejection of both truth and civility convinced many, for the 100th time, that he is unelectable.
Then we have the phenomenon of Biden’s poll numbers sinking. A lot of us want Trump gone, but apparently still prefer him over Joe Biden. I have been pondering what Biden did to deserve such rejection. Is it age alone? Is it his embrace of diversity and equity? Or is it simply a naïve belief that if we could just get Trump back in the White House, the price of gasoline would go down and the war in Ukraine would end in 24 hours (as promised by Trump at the Town Hall).
I am also watching the impasse over raising the debt ceiling. A terribly risky game of chicken is being played with both sides refusing to entertain compromise. Will Biden lose the support of his party if he “caves” to Speaker McCarthy on the issue (as Trump predicts)? And is McCarthy even in a position to negotiate? Given his razor-thin majority and the MAGA caucus, is McCarthy even able to compromise? And, most importantly, will default on federal debt end American civilization as we know it or simply produce a slight bump in the road? (Trump cavalierly told Town Hall attendees not to worry about a federal debt default.)
If you are able to read these tea leaves, congratulations. Personally, I do not believe that today’s tea leaves can be read with any reasonable degree of confidence.
Conversations with politically knowledgeable friends, as well as newspapers and cable news, have convinced me that nobody really knows what is happening. Pundits like Al From and Craig Fuller have opined that Trump will not be the Republican candidate in 2024. Other friends and pundits, however, tell me that despite being found liable for sexual battery and defamation, being indicted on 34 felony counts in New York, and facing more serious charges of election interference in Georgia and, some predict, a multitude of charges in Washington relating to misappropriated classified documents and trying to overthrow the government, that Trump is a shoo-in for the Republican nomination.
What do I think? I do not know.
Making prognoses even more difficult are the wildcards of Biden’s and Trump’s health, the economy, and the increasing possibility that a group called “No Labels” will run a third party “national unity” ticket in several states. Several friends point to the self-identification of more than a third of voters as “independent” as evidence that a centrist ticket—a Democrat and Republican running on the same ticket and guided by a platform of centrist principles—is the only way to prevent Trump or a left-leaning Democrat from winning the presidency. Others, including Mr. From on The Spy’s From and Fuller program, believes No Labels is a disaster because it would guarantee the return of Trump to the White House by attracting votes that otherwise would be cast for Biden.
What do I think? I do not know. I believe most of us would welcome a centrist president and that the best way to defeat Trump or persuade him not to run is to convince him that his base has abandoned him and that he cannot win. As I said, I do not know.
At times, I feel guilty about not “knowing” what the 2024 election cycle will hold. Last weekend, I stopped feeling guilty. What happened? I reflected on the reality of election day being more than a year and a half away. That realization prompted me to remind myself to calm down.
A year and a half is a long time. A lot of things can, and probably will, happen. Trump, for example, may self-destruct. President Biden may decide not to run for reelection. A surprise, charismatic candidate might emerge in one, or maybe both parties. Remember Obama’s meteoric rise in 2008? The economy may surprise us by not going into recession. And dozens of other scenarios are possible. What if there is another pandemic? Or the Chinese invade Taiwan? Or something else.
My takeaway is that those of us who care about America’s future must stay engaged. We cannot ignore Trump (or Biden), but we also must remind ourselves that it is too early to assume anything. The future is not yet determined. If we want the future to be positive, we need to work for it. Right?
And exactly what should we do? If you agree that Trump’s return to power would be a disaster, we must call out the defeated ex-president’s lies and misguided policies. More importantly, we must get involved with the Democratic party, or even the “No Labels” movement, to promote electing a president in 2024 who supports democracy and the Constitution.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.
Deirdre LaMotte says
A No-Labels party will elect the Republican and that is the end of our Democracy.
Trump needs no explaining.
DeSantis
is a bully using State tax money to attack kids, teachers, the States largest company, voting rights, LGBTQ personal rights and women’s personal health decisions. This man who loves publicity signed the 6-week ban in the middle of the night. His bigoted “anti-woke” crusade is blatant racism. He and the other man, a former President-hard- to- fathom, are small, mean men with cruel vengeance for all who disagree with them.
These Republican’s intent is to rule not govern. No thank you.
John Dean says
Thanks for reading the piece.
As I said in the piece, about 40 percent of the American population would like to see an end to the political divide that now plagues the country. No Labels is an effort, perhaps a mistaken one, to address that. You may be right about the impact of a third party candidate on the election, but I have been following them because the political divide is so harmful to our future.
In any case, I appreciate your reading the piece and commenting.
Mickey Terrone says
Hello again, John. I almost gave up hope on your article until I read the last paragraph.
I must admit that after watching the Trump event on CNN, that the more dangerous threat to our American Republican Democracy is the Republican “Base” of white zombies who’d applaud if Trump shot someone on 5th Avenue in NYC. As Democrats who vote for egalitarian economic and social policies, we take care of those zombies when Democrats control the Houses of Congress and state houses nationwide, as well as city halls. We work to ensure the Republican “Base” has reasonably priced health insurance. We protect their social security and medicare needs. We fight for increases in their minimum wages. We fight for Republican womens’ rights to choose if they seek to end unwanted or dangerous pregnancies. And they do get abortions. We insist on maintaining their voting rights in a democracy that they are willing to turn over to fascist demagogues.
But they are zombies and are watching FOX News unless they’ve already switched to OAN or Newsmax. Their minds are closed. For them, its 1861 all over again. Democrats are like the abolitionists all over again, trying to ensure equal rights to all people of color, trying to make it easier for all Americans to vote. As alleged evangelical Christians, this is anathema to their pre civil war “heritage”. In 2015, Trump seized upon this to win over this “bypassed” bloc of fearful whites, who now support him no matter what he says or perpetrates. They even ignore his attempt to overthrow our government! What other signal do we need to understand that ANY Democrat is better than Trump or ANY of his wannabees – at ANY level of elected office in ANY state?
So, please stop handwringing about Biden’s age or the way he walks or sometimes stumbles on a word. He has plenty of great backups in the party if he falters. If you start to doubt his mental faculties, just watch a replay of his 2023 State of the Union Speech. Watch the behavior of those Republican zombies in the chamber as Biden rattles their cages.
I think Mr. From is correct in suggesting a third party (“No Label”) would be a gift from heaven for Trump to have an avenue back to the White House. You can bet that the Russians, the Chinese and Steve Bannon are gearing up to create massive disinformation campaigns to create a 3rd party for Trump’s benefit. I’m probably in the same age range as you, Al and Craig. In our heyday, this kind of heavily funded, deranged challenge to democracy itself didn’t exist. However, it does now and we can’t win by shivering about Biden’s shortcomings. We need to promote his many successes, we need to harshly articulate the dangers of Trumpism and Republican Party authoritarianism/aristocracy. We need to explain the contrasts and keep explaining it and try to educate the non-zombie public about what is best for the vast majority of Americans.
We’ll just have to drag the zombies along, kicking and screaming. Let’s just not beat ourselves. Let’s circle the wagons and put Trump et al, in their historical places as Americans unworthy of any trust whatsoever.
John Dean says
Thanks for reading the piece. Please note that in saying the tea leaves are indecipherable, I was only saying that a lot can happen between now and election day 2024.
I tend to agree with you on the risks of a third party, but I disagree that Democrats should ignore President Biden’s age on the assumption that if he were to falter, everything will work out okay. I have serious doubts of Kamala Harris beating most Republican candidates, should she step into the role of nominee late in the process, for example.
In any case, thank you for reading the piece.
Cecily Sharp-Whitehill says
We are not unfamiliar with the two [at this moment] likely presidential candidates. And it’s good to be reminded — as with the Trump Show last week — of the characteristics and values that would be on display for the next four year term. Whether we’re disgusted or supportive, we voters need to be clear within ourselves why we’re going to vote for a particular person and set of qualities.
John Dean says
Thank you for reading the piece and for your comment. I agree with you, as you may have guessed.
Paul Rybon says
We can expect the tea leaves to remain murky as long as evidence of the Biden Criminal enterprise emerges and Donald Trump continues to debunk some of the major plots against him.
It is said that Americans vote with their pocketbook or the threat of war. As the economy appears to be tanking and China continues it’s agenda to dominate, our present administration looks weaker against anyone the Republicans put up there for candidates. Why Trump so easily beat them in 2016. Unless the Dems find a better candidate for 2024 the tea leaves will continue to show murky for Mr. SIKES.