Is it possible to get a word or two in on what historians will say in 2050 about the second term presidency of Donald J Trump? Perhaps I am wrong but I am going to attempt a long-range projection.
I write as an Independent (worn down by political party nausea) wary of the polarized world in which we live. So let me get started.
You can’t be President unless you win more electoral votes than the other candidates. Trump did.
You can’t be President unless the electoral votes are certified by Congress. They were.
You cannot be a consequential President unless your Party controls the Congress. Republicans do.
It is hard to be an effective President if each of your priorities result in a death struggle. This point requires a bit of elaboration.
If, as President, you challenge existing law or funding priorities as they exist, you encounter heavy seas. The fourth branch of government is the status quo. Unofficial Washington is organized to maintain it or enrich it. The President used a new initiative, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), to challenge it and deflect the fire. Elon Musk became the fire shield.
And Trump, notwithstanding denials, came into office with a Plan. Russell Vought, a self-described “radical constitutionalist” strategist and longtime Trump ally, played an influential role in crafting Project 2025—a 920-page Heritage Foundation blueprint for a possible second Trump term.
Vought argues that America’s constitutional structure has been corrupted by a technocratic bureaucracy. He believes the presidency must dramatically reclaim power—even at the expense of legal precedent, institutional restraint, or congressional and judicial checks.
The Plan was comprehensive and took on official Washington. But without Trump’s hardcore support and tactical leadership, the playbook would have been cobwebbed. Even though Trump denied the plans centrality, Vought heads the Office of Management and Budget, as he did in Trump’s first term. My experience: this is the hub of operational Washington.
Trump, or at least I will give him credit, took on the tactical leadership. Many call his leadership style transactional. Regardless, he used a “flood the zone” strategy. Each day, or so it seems, featured a new headline lead. Little gained real traction.
It is also clear that there was and continues to be an intent to exploit prejudice. For example, most recently Trump took over District Of Columbia policing calling the District a crime-infested disgrace. The vast majority of Trump’s base reflexively believes that. And when you take on California or New York, again almost regardless of the subject, Trump’s Red State base salutes.
My Midwest friends were unbelieving when my wife and I moved to New York City. Their view of the City was most likely formed by all the crime dramas on TV with New York as the venue. And almost nobody outside New York likes the Yankees.
Prejudice is a fact. My grandmother’s pot roast was the best in the world. My State or baseball team or University—well they are the best. When prejudice exacts public harm and is clearly immoral we legislate against it. When it is simply human and arguably un-harmful we identify it through polls and react to it in our daily lives.
Politics is one of those daily lives phenomena. Trump himself mused about how protective it can be. “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.” We might not like that level of prejudicial support and I certainly don’t, but it is not punishable. In fact, for Trump’s style of leadership it is foundational.
Even after the Trump supporting mob attacked the Capitol in January of 2021, the low point of Trump’s popularity, he still had an overall approval level of approximately 30% and 78% of Republicans continued to approve of him. As his opponents, Nicki Haley and Ron DeSantis learned, Trump’s support was quite solid.
Of course, as Trump takes advantage of pre-existing prejudices, a Democrat can do the same thing. But right now the pre-existing prejudice most noticeable in day-to-day news is the Far-Left’s disapproval of capitalism. Not a winning prejudice outside of left-leaning big cities with a demographic mix unlike much of the rest of the United States.
Trump meanwhile floods the zone. He just met with Putin, Zelensky and a number of world leaders. Several days before, he took over DC policing; one more move in continually reinforcing his base.
And he has chosen to be the most transparent President in modern history. He loves the spotlight and even though most of the Press doesn’t like him, he uses their barely disguised disdain to reinforce his base who share his distaste.
Trump also knows that the two constitutional entities with which he is supposed to share power are by comparison virtually powerless in the face of his aggression. Congress is populated with people who cannot imagine what they would do if they lost their next election. And most Republicans know one thing for sure—the Trump base seems essential to winning the primary.
The Courts structure and history is procedural, appealable and mostly slow. For example, the Constitution gives tariff power to the Congress except in emergencies. Trump, having declared an emergency, has upended laws, treaties, and customs to remake the world of international trade. By the time the most important challenge to the use of this power reaches the final days of a Supreme Court review/decision, the world system of trade will be wholly different. And will persist, at least in part, until the Congress actually acts.
Back to the Democrats. The so-called Center of the Party lacks a widely regarded leader. The Far-Left has two—Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. They are both quite able in asserting their prejudices and ambitions.
And, leading today’s most recognizable political campaign is Zohran Mamdani, who is the Democrat running for Mayor of New York. He is an unapologetic socialist and has supported a “global intifada”, certainly not popular with an important constituency—Jewish voters. Mamdani’s positions trip a number of prejudicial wires.
Politics is often an appearance contest. Votes in elections and Congress are influenced by prejudices regardless of rationality. Trump has mastered the art of prejudicial politics. My view is historians will agree.
Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.
Michael Pullen says
Abraham Lincoln was 28 years old in 1838 when he gave this speech in Springfield Illinois. Speaking about dangers facing America, he said:
“At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it?
Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never…all the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined… could not by force take a drink from the Ohio or make a track on the Blue Ridge in a trial of a thousand years.
At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer: if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time or die by suicide.”
As a young man of 28, Lincoln recognized the danger, so apparent today, the author utterly fails to see. Looking back 50 years from now historians will judge folks who normalize this Administration, as the author does, as having proved Lincoln’s observation correct.
Historians will also judge those who resisted this Administration as having recognized the danger Lincoln foresaw, and either as bringing effective resistance to bear or as having failed in the attempt.
History will certainly judge. The outcome hangs in the balance.
Al Sikes says
Normalize? How about characterize? We are in trouble and Trump knows how to take advantage of the cultural dissonance.
Susan Langfitt says
Thank you, Mike. I always appreciate your perspective. Trump didn’t get here on his own. Many people had a hand in putting him in office and getting us into the trouble we are clearly in today.
Robin Westre says
Cory Booker isn’t as far left as Bernie and AOC but Cory Booker definitely has been putting himself out there.
Tragic that trump wasn’t indicted after impeachment for his role in the January 6 insurrection. Putin shouldn’t be allowed at the table. He’s a warmonger and charged with war crimes. Why is he getting red-carpet treatment on American soil.
Bob Parker says
Yes, trump is the president but that is where comparison with any other person elected to this office. Many share in this abomination inflicted upon our nation, but probably none more than Sen. Mitch McConnell who if he had had the character to vote for trump’s impeachment in Jan 2021 he would have likely led enough of the Republican Senators to vote likewise. The Republican party then disposed of their ethics and character on that day and they have yet to rediscover it.
Willard Engelskirchen says
I would like to make a couple of points regarding capitalism. First, a capitalist must be an optimist. Second, capitalism implies that the government stay out of the work of business. Interfering in the choices of business in areas such as who to employ or whether to have a diverse workforce is IMHO anticapitalistic. Calling winners and losers is also not in the playbook of a capitalist.
When Costco decides to have a diverse workforce it is a business decision they should be free to make. DEI is a path that corporations may choose to go down. Or not. This past proxy season I saw many shareholder proposals on the issue. Let the shareholders – the owners – have their say.
Beyond all of this, the chance for corruption and insider trading when there may be foreknowledge of a position which may impact a stock price is huge. If you know that some major government official will say something which might affect that stock price, this knowledge can be used to great advantage. It should not be allowed.
David potashnick says
How do u get the anti trumpers to get out and vote in the midterms
Rodney Tong says
Come on Al. Who do you think you are trying to fool by saying that Trump has chosen to be the most transparent president in modern history? That is a laughable statement. The only thing transparent about him is that it is easy to see through his lies and moronic dialogue, amongst many other things.
David potashnick says
“Prejudicial politics” is too nice a phrase for pure evil. Taco wants to b king.
David potashnick says
Ur filter is screwed up, it said I already answered or commented that taco is evil and that ur legitimizing him with ur analysis. Guess this comment will get through
Bob Brell says
Bravo Al. First article in over a year that hasn’t bashed Trump. Maybe what Trump has accomplished in his first 6 months is finally seeing the light of day. Your East Coast readers will take that as bashing Trump, to the contrary. The bright light of transparency is finally revealing the breadth and depth of the open borders where the left looked to harvest future voters to the tune of 12 or 15 or 20 million illegals, you pick the number; flooding our borders with those seeking sanctuary and freedom but turned their head to a criminal element that invaded the homeland, welcomed by the sanctuary cities on the east and west coasts and now dealing with the consequences of crime (murder, rape, drugs among others). Light is the disinfectant needed to expose this travesty; denied by the previous administration and its supporters.
Perhaps the fourth branch of government is the press and not the status quo. Unofficial Washington seems to recognize it as so and it too is seeing the light of day. The press, printed, networks and cable are under the light and being exposed for what they are. They lost their innocence years ago when they sold out to big business, big money and politics. The First and Fourteenth give the press the freedom (rope); they are close to strangling themselves. It’s amusing to watch.
Deirdre LaMotte says
Your comment was so inane that I want to respond with a comment I made in response to another MAGA in Chestertown
with authoritarian fascist views, certainly not democratic views. She too was all in on deportation and “Anti crime” .
“The Dems are the lover of “criminals”?! How about the former great “Party” elect a person without 34 (!) felony charges? Oh, and perhaps select a person of honor who is not making billions for his family while in office.
And please, drop the Hunter cr*p. It was the dreadful daughter and son in law of this current POTUS
criminal who made $640 million while
“working” in daddy’s administration, and then received $2 billion from those responsible for 9/11.
And that was during the first term…
And you have the nerve to talk about crime. Give me a boat load of immigrants who risk life and limb to reach our great nation over anyone who defends this lawless, disgraceful group of half-wits.”
We on the “east coast” believe in democracy. How silly you think. How little you know.
Charles e. Valier says
Al, your comments are objective and well thought out. Despite the Trump derangement that abounds in your commentators the reality is that the Opposition is self destructing and appears to be oblivious to reality – democratic socialism, free bus rides, City owned grocery stores, rent controls. History has tested these before and they failed. Why now? The reality on the ground is that party registration has been turning against the opposition for the last five years. A logical person would wonder why the vast majority of the Opposition will not rebel. Trump has many flaws, but right now he has sucked all the oxygen out of the atmosphere. As you and I learned in the 1970’s and ‘80’s it requires a smart opposition, which is missing today. Those in opposition must provide a promise for a better future. Deriding Trump is a dead end.