To say 2020 was a year of constant unexpected events is a huge understatement. No area of our lives were exempt including events in the political world. A much talked about blue wave in the 2020 general elections turned out to be a blue trickle almost everywhere. Almost everywhere. In Talbot County (where I live), Joe Biden narrowly edged Donald Trump by 116 votes. That is the first time a Democrat presidential candidate has carried Talbot County since Lyndon Johnson beat Barry Goldwater in 1964. The winning margin for Biden was razor thin but a win in is a win.
What happened and what’s next?
First some history.
In 2016, the Talbot County vote for Donald Trump was 10,724 versus 8,653 for Hillary Clinton.
In 2018, the county vote for Larry Hogan was 14,081 versus 3,957 for Ben Jealous.
Clearly Talbot County voters TWICE overwhelmingly rejected progressive candidates and progressive platforms.
In 2020, the county vote for Donald Trump was 10,946 and 11,062 for Joe Biden. 2020 Trump votes were comparable to his 2016 totals; but Biden’s exceeded Hillary Clinton’s by 2,000 + votes!
One has to ask — what happened between November 2018 and November 2020?
How did a progressive at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket with one of the most progressive running mates in history (and who garnered less than 2% of the vote in Democratic primaries before dropping out); win in Talbot County
We may never know for sure without voter focus groups. That said, I offer the following thoughts.
This election was a referendum on Donald Trump’s personality, NOT on his performance. Until the pandemic, his record on economic growth with historically low unemployment rates for Blacks and females were quantifiable and impressive.
That did not go unnoticed by China who was aggressively called out by Donald Trump as a serious threat to America and to the world. Donald Trump also initiated actions against China and they in turn responded… HARD.
China deliberately, maliciously and secretly released a virus that led to a shutdown of a booming United States economy. Despite most of the shutdowns being ordered and largely managed by governors, Donald Trump was blamed.
Pundits, pollsters and the media (often wrong, but never in doubt), engaged in an almost continuous campaign to discredit Donald Trump since the day he was first elected. On a daily basis they downplayed Donald Trump’s achievements and largely ignored Joe Biden’s shortcomings including the fragile state of his health and his son’s involvement with Burisma.
During one of the debates, “moderator” Chris Wallace went so far as to say the American public doesn’t care about Burisma, but they do care about global warming. That may be true in the insular echo chamber where Wallace lives and works but like so many of the pollsters media and pundits he was wrong, just as they were 4 years ago.
The media and pundits also advanced a narrative that Joe Biden is a moderate. He is not, but that misinformation campaign worked.
Even some Eastern Shore media was complicit in piling on Donald Trump. At least three individuals who penned guest commentaries bashing the President had them published. One opined that Donald Trump committed ALL the seven cardinal sins of the Roman Catholic Church! The author of that piece later acknowledged that column was a “stinker” (his words not mine). In another column, Donald Trump was referred to as a “sleazy New York City real estate developer”. This steady drumbeat of vitriol against Donald Trump took a toll on his electability in Talbot County and elsewhere.
Some Biden voters may have yearned for a return to the policies of the Obama years. They likely saw Biden as Obama 2.0.
Biden voters ignored or chose not to acknowledge the odds of Kamala Harris becoming president sooner rather than later if they are in fact sworn in to office.
Given the forecasts that Maryland would vote overwhelmingly for Joe Biden, perhaps some voters concluded, I might as well join the herd and vote for the presumed winner.
Another factor in Talbot County is the ongoing immigration of voters from other parts of Maryland and the country. These voters may be bringing their voting preferences with them. Conversely increasing numbers of older, generally more conservative county voters are leaving the area due to regularly absorbing tax increases or, sad to say, due to succumbing to mortality.
Talbot County politics may be turning purple. Time will tell. The impact of 25+% of voters now registering unaffiliated is a matter that bears watching. Right now, Talbot County Democrats are feeling good about a Democrat Presidential candidate carrying Talbot County for the first time in 56 years. My advice to them is — “Enjoy it while you can”.
If Joe Biden or Kamala Harris are sworn in and push hard to advance a progressive agenda that the progressive wing of the Democratic party is demanding (as expected), a significant number of Talbot County voters who voted for Democrats in 2020 MAY have serious buyer’s remorse and vote accordingly in the near future.
David Reel is Maryland Director for Quantum Communications, a public affairs and public relations consulting firm. He currently serves as Chair of the Republican Central Committee of Talbot County.
William Keppen says
As the Chair of the Talbot County RCC, he opines from a somewhat, perhaps extraordinarily biased perspective. The Republican party follow Trump down a rabbit hole and will continue to lose elections, unless and until they harken back to its founding principles and values.
Vickie Wilson says
It was time for a change. Glad to see a great turn out of voters.
Alice McGarrity says
I don’t understand how anyone can defend our president who has done absolutely NOTHING to serve this country since the election except pardon two turkeys and a criminal. We are in a health crisis and he is ignoring us. He is still our leader and needs to stay on the job until his time is over! Or, should I say Start his job??
Hal Weiner says
Great piece about why Talbot went blue. The Spy has now become my go to source for fiction.
Susan Langfitt says
Perhaps The Talbot Spy should consider flagging misinformation a la Twitter.
The Rev Julie Hart says
Too Bad, So Sad! Accept it! Get over it and move on!! That is what GOPers told us 4 years ago. Now it’s your turn.
And we can ALL stop talking about the worst most dangerous “President” this country ever had. He shamed us before the whole world. We lost our place amongst the nations. He made fun of the Disabled and urged people to violence. He is a blatant White Supremacist and readied his “Proud Boys” for the fight ahead. He called our military men and women losers citing that he “didn’t know why they did it–what was in it for them.” THIS FROM THE COMMANDER IN CHIEF. He desparaged Congresswomen-women of color, saying they needed to go back from where they came. He turned US Troops on Protesters outside the White House because he wanted to make a ridiculous show holding up a Bible in front of an Episcopal Church. He’s a disgrace as a human being, let alone one who held the Office of President of the United States. The only person he loves other than himself is himself!! The world is relieved and rejoicing. Maybe we can even return to a place of leadership.
Laura Zagon says
It is quite obvious that this author voted for and supports the Liar in Chief. I would like to know when they proved that China intentionally released this virus into the world?? Let’s say they did… that is still no excuse for the absolutely NONACTION taken by his sociopathic candidate once the virus did get here. It doesn’t go away by blaming someone else. Thus, the states HAD to take things into their own hands and start ordering mandates and shutdowns because the sicko in chief wouldn’t even tell people to wear masks. SOMEONE had to do something. I suppose the author thinks the half baked action of stopping some flights from China almost a year ago and the soon to be vaccine release are the great actions by the Trump administration to combat Covid. Really?? What about the almost year that went by between those two actions? ZERO action by the thankfully outgoing administration. The lies, the autocracy, the cozying up to dictators, the snubbing his nose at people who pay taxes, the constant attempts at wiping out our democratic process (and on and on) mean nothing to this author. Biden is slim, runs to the podium, kept up with what I imagine was a horrifically exhausting campaign schedule and this author says Biden’s health is fragile? His psychopathic candidate is obese, can barely walk down stairs, can’t lift his own arms and this is healthy? I give you Harris may be progressive (so what, she’s young and SOMETHING new has to change what hasn’t been working) but Biden is not. This article made me ill.
Steve Huntoon says
Hi David Reel,
What is your authority for this claim: “China deliberately, maliciously and secretly released a virus that led to a shutdown of a booming United States economy.”
Please give me the specific webpage or other basis for this claim so that I can run it to ground.
Thank you,
Steve Huntoon
Liz Freedlander says
If you are suggesting that it it is shallow to vote on the personality of the president, you have lost all sense of what the moral compass of the leader of this country means to many Americans and to the world. Are you suggesting that it is ok that our president enacts policy but has no character that guides its purpose? Are you suggesting that it is ok that our president holds no valuable teaching moment for character formation for our children?
I am proud that I voted on “the personality” of Donald Trump. His personality is narcissistic, disrespectful, morally unmoored and petty. Your opening proposition is shocking.
Vincent De Sanctis says
So those who voted for Biden just wanted to join the “herd”. This attempt at analyzing the Talbot election results is shallow and distorted. What about the possibility that Talbot voters wanted a president who among many factors doesn’t lie daily, demean minorities, believe that his prime advisors are employed on Fox, and most egregiously mishandled a pandemic which by any measure has been the worst in the world.
Bruce Williams says
Every single expert said that the virus was created in nature and none of them think China did anything “malicious”. China may not be our ally, but to publish this nonsense that accuses China of “deliberately, maliciously, and secretly” unleashing the virus is the height of journalistic irresponsibility.
Joseph Wharton says
Mr. Reel got through the first four bullet sentences before led astray by the ideology and the Trump narrative. Today’s GOP sure isn’t fact and truth centered like the one I once knew.
Beginning with bullet sentence number eight:
In fact, Trump was defeated on performance as well as personality. The economic performance touted was largely the result of the GOP tax cut – product of GOP White House, GOP Senate, and GOP House, and was paid for with the credit card. Trump deficit for this year was one trillion – before the pandemic
Any claim that China deliberately, maliciously and secretly released a virus in response to Trump’s trade sanctions belongs only in the fifth dimension Trump/MAGA world – twitter, Fox and Newsmax reside there too.
After that claim, we dive deep into the blame game – everything is someone else’s fault.
Biden’s health is fragile? Looks OK to me.
The Burisma nothing-burger.
It is the fault of the immigrants and people moving away because of high taxes – right.
Summing up, Mr. Reel gives us a good old-fashioned dose of fear-mongering. Kamala Harris is a danger to something held dear and everyone knows what that is – just like Obamagate – exactly what was that, by the way?
To his credit, Mr. Reel makes no claims of voter fraud.
The GOP ideologues have spent years (the last four especially) telling one “herd” what they wanted to hear instead of the truth, but it turns out that the other “herd” is/was smarter and larger.
To the editor: Do you edit opinion pieces for factual accuracy at all?
Dick Deerin says
When I read the headline of this article, I was looking forward to reading a serious analysis of the factors giving rise to the Talbot County Biden/Harris victory over Trump/Pence in the 2020 election. Instead, I found a mish-mash of Trumpian “Malarkey” (as Joe Biden would call it). Blame the Chinese, blame the governors, blame “herd voting” (a new one), blame new people moving to Talbot County, blame the media, and on and on. It reminds me of the election fraud claims now being made by Trump in the courts. As the courts and American people are asking, “Where’s the beef?” (Apologies to Wendy’s and Fritz Mondale)
The Talbot County vote contributed to the thrashing of Donald Trump by Joe Biden with over 6,000,000 popular vote margin and 306 electoral votes. Remember that Trump called his 2016 Electoral College win of 304 a “landslide”. So, how did the Biden/Harris campaign pull off this remarkable feat? I would submit there are three primary factors.
First, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were a formidable team, bringing a message of leadership and a “pledge to be a president who seeks not to divide but unify, who doesn’t see red states and blue states, only sees the United States.”
Second, Donald Trump has been a disaster as President, from the revolving door of his senior advisers (by firing or indictment) to his impeachment in the House, and culminating in his complete failure of leadership in dealing with America’s response to the Coronavirus pandemic. Except for ratings on handling the economy, his overall approval rating has been in the low to mid 40’s and disapproval ratings in the mid-50’s. And on the question of whether the economy would get better, stay the same or get worse, depending on Trump or Biden getting elected, the results were not exactly overwhelming for Trump. Get better or stay the same for Trump 54%, get worse 40%. For Biden get better or stay the same 51%, get worse 42%. Basically within the margin of error.
Thirdly, and most importantly, the Talbot County Democrats out-organized the Republicans, got out the Biden/Harris message of leadership and unity, and did the hard work to turn out the vote (both in-person and mail-in). When you get down to it, that’s how elections are won.
Anne Stalfort says
Yes. Very obvious that the writer of this rant is a Republican and Trump supporter. I am very proud that for the first time in all the years I have voted -since 1968 – that Talbot County has agreed with me. Way to go Talbot!
Anne Stalfort says
So this same commentary is in the today’s Star Democrat. Just in case reading it the first time didn’t infuriate enough, you get another chance!