Today’s Democratic party is no longer shaped by realities. In a broad sense, today’s Party is still attuned to President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs.
The Great Society legislation was enacted in the mid-1960s during Johnson’s presidency. The promises: eliminate poverty and racial injustice. The cost in today’s dollars is estimated at $2T.
The results in many ways are now clear. Was there progress, yes. But over the decades we have learned that mostly the government can help those who will strive to better their lives.
We also learned, and it was not a great surprise, that massive government spending on social programs create dependencies that over time become prevailing political forces. At the risk of generalization, the dependencies are the foundation of today’s Democratic party.
The social programs and their associated funding while providing a “safety net” (Medicare, for example) also became a major source of today’s huge deficit. And the people that ran those programs—persons with utopian tendencies—kept pushing for more money, arguing that adding another program or layer would break through a wall of human resistance.
So, what do today’s Democrats do? Principally, its establishment leaders argue that Donald J Trump is evil and will, among other things, kill the programs that created the dependencies. This has not been a winning strategy. Afterall, Trump with all his flaws, won. Among other inconveniences, many who like Trump are former Democrats, and not from the high end of the demographic spectrum.
With apologies, I can get hung up on particular words. One of my favorites is “efficacy”. One definition: “the ability to produce a desired or intended result”. My emphasis: “result”. Or, in politics a result that satisfies a majority of voters.
A vivid example of a dramatic misalignment occurred in border security during the Biden administration. President Biden assigned the task to Vice-President Kamala Harris and there was a glaring lack of efficacy. Maybe the result was not desired. Maybe pressure groups which are a part of the Democratic ecosystem said “back down.”
An accumulation of results betraying intentions has kneecapped the Democratic party. The result: a large slice of the Party’s base has gone to the other side. As to the other side, Trump changed the Republican party regardless of resistance from the lingering and now disappearing Reagan wing of the Party. Trump doesn’t allow conservatism to get in the way of pragmatism.
President Trump is transparent in ways that earlier Presidents were not. He is out there. He holds frequent news conferences, often spontaneous ones. He says what is on his mind and the word “great” is a very active adjective.
In the Democratic party it is hard to know who can generate an interesting news conference. Certainly not its establishment figures whose comments betray anger and bewilderment.
Now for those who are looking ahead and wondering how many more words to the conclusion let me state it now.
America’s left-of-center party needs a founder. The Party’s bureaucrats are not equal to the job. The Founder will know the job and instinctively find the words and phrases necessary to begin to assemble a majority Party.
Formation will require both demolition and construction. Helpful pollsters will follow the votes. And especially that large slice of voters who self-identify as Independents. This is where the Party needs to go shopping to find targets of opportunity. Establishment Democrats will not be happy but where will they go? To Trump?
2025 promises Democrats a fertile opportunity. A Founder, to fill out a plan, will turn to policy entrepreneurs and insist that they use efficacy as a measure. Probe the world of the possible. The Founder will know how to use words and phrases to contrast the new way forward with the President’s direction.
Let me finish with a note of caution. America is closing in on a $40 trillion national debt. At almost 125% of America’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) this reality is a huge warning signal that voters are actually beginning to understand the cost to future generations.
The Democratic party more than the Republican one has been pieced together by domestic spending programs. Many of its most reliable constituencies are at least in part built around one or more dependencies. The teacher unions are a prime example. They represent more than 3.2 million members. They must be resold on efficacy.
Finally, although leaving until another day foreign policy, the new Democratic party will need to re-think cultural issues. I would suggest paying some attention to Nashville. In music, for example, Nashville has expanded beyond country music into indie rock, pop and to some degree hip-hop. It has become a cultural touchstone. Listen to the lyrics.
President Trump was groomed by NBC’s show Apprentice. Its producers understood his visceral appeal and then he decided to turn from political flirtation to action. This is not a circumstance that can be invented. But it is a circumstance that needs to be understood. I would suggest beginning with one immutable principle. The next Democratic president will not be a Washington insider, they are owned.
Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.
Jim Moses CDR, USN (Ret.) says
I think we need to note the disastrous impact of just two individuals on our ability to move forward – as a nation – in any rational sense. The first is Grover Norquist, who now sees himself on the verge of realizing his dream of reducing government to the size it can be “drowned in the bathtub.” The second is Newt Gingrich, who as Speaker managed to singlehandedly destroy bipartisanship in the House. Much that has followed in the intervening years has its roots in the thoughts and deeds of these two. Donald Trump is simply a byproduct.
Over the coming months there will be no shortage of strategy and policy recommendations, and while I can hardly call myself a “political strategist,” as a long-time Republican with years in the Reagan and 41 administrations prior to retirement, I can offer this. First, the Democratic Party, in concert with independents and moderate Republicans, must acknowledge they have lost the narrative high ground to the exaggerations, half-truths, innuendo and outright lies of right wing “social media.” Consider for a moment that but for “social media,” we would have just finished the second term of a successful Clinton presidency, and maga would be a Dukakis-like footnote to American political history. Regaining this high ground without “becoming them” will not be easy; capitalizing on the buyers’ remorse already springing up is a start. Are there districts where this buyers’ remorse can be leveraged into a recall election campaign? Just one or two would send a strong reminder that midterms are now only about 20 months away. Most representatives do read history.
Rodney Tong says
Trump is transparent? Come on Al. Get real
Dan Watson says
Jim Moses’ insights on Gingrich and Norquist–and the colossal challenge of a recovery “without becoming them–are spot on.
DW
Jim Wilkins says
It is astonishing that the general public fails to recognize the reality that the oligarchs have taken over the country. Why do we have such a large deficit? We have a class of people who have paid the politicians to engineer our tax laws in a way that allows certain people to avoid paying their share of our tax bills or any taxes for that matter. No need to name them. They are well known. If these individuals were required to pay a fair share of their taxes we wouldn’t be debating about the national debt. It would be paid in full. But this is a problem without a real solution until campaign tax reform happens. Under our current system our government is bought and paid for by lobbyists representing the interests of corporations and the wealthy. The problem resides in the fact that both political parties are beholden to these interests and until that changes we will be stuck with dysfunctional government and a perpetually divided society.
Jerry Kenney says
The democrat party is in free fall because they were way too honest during the past four years. They finally showed voters who they really are and the voters were repulsed. It became obvious that the only thing the dems really believe in is power. They have no guiding principles unless you consider stirring resentment, envy and a sense of victimhood to be principles. Voters witnessed the democrats intentionally flood the country with illegals. They frantically tried to imprison their political rival. They used the power of the state to shut down free speech and wielded heavy-handed coercion regarding private healthcare matters. Americans want a divorce and the dems are still in denial.
William Dalton says
I look forward to your next essay asking where has the Republican Party gone. We all know that it no longer exists. Its successor is now in total disarray and unable to govern. The favorite “tar baby” is now owned by the Trump party.-the growing deficit. Tax reductions for all billionaires, no more entangling alliances. America first and the rest of the world can go to hell. What is your advice for your party?