New Report: Poor Kids in Talbot County Have Less Chance for Economic Mobility

A few weeks ago, the New York Times published an article that highlighted new research findings suggesting that poor children who grow up in some cities and towns have sharply better odds of escaping poverty than similar poor children elsewhere.

The study entitled “The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility Childhood Exposure Effects and County-Level Estimates” by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren at Harvard University offered the most detailed portrait yet of upward mobility, and suggest that geography does not just separate rich from poor but also determines which poor children achieve the so-called American dream.

So how does Talbot County stack up in this landmark study? While certainly not on the same dismal level as the City of Baltimore, Talbot, along with Kent, Caroline and particularly Dorchester County, all showed below average results. The only bright spot was in Queen Anne’s County.

As the map below indicates, if a child in a poor family were to grow up in Talbot County, instead of a statistically average place, he or she would make $1,140 less money annually. Likewise, if that child grew up in Queen Anne’s County, they would earn close to $800 more than the average.

So, if you’re poor and live on the Mid-Shore, it’s better to be in Queen Anne’s County than in Caroline, Kent, or Dorchester County. Not only that, the younger you are when you move to Queen Anne’s, the better you will do on average. Children who move at earlier ages are less likely to become single parents, more likely to go to college and more likely to earn more.

Every year a poor child spends in Queen Anne’s County adds about $40 to his or her annual household income at age 26, compared with a childhood spent in the average American county. Over the course of a full childhood, which is up to age 20 for the purposes of this analysis, the difference adds up to about $700, or 3 percent, more in average income as a young adult.

In summary, Talbot County is below average in helping poor children up the income ladder. It ranks 530th out of 2,478 counties nationwide, better than about 21 percent of counties. It is relatively worse for poor boys than it is for poor girls.

Here are the estimates for how much 20 years of childhood in Talbot County adds or takes away from a child’s income (compared with an average county), along with the national percentile ranking for each. Even for kids from wealthier homes in Talbot County show negative impact.

The report nonetheless does not answer the question of whether things like better schools and less economic segregation are the main co-factors. The study team, however, will be looking into that in the years ahead.

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