Current polls suggest President Trump is the underdog in the 2020 election, but it is only May. A lot can, and will, happen between now and when America heads to the ballot box (or, more likely, mailbox) to vote.
This column speculates on what a second Trump term might look like. One reader of my companion piece speculating on what a Biden presidency might look bottom lined the subject by saying, “more of the same.” This commenter likes Trump’s consistency, his candor, and his willingness to take an eye for an eye. Charitably put, interesting.
Here, diplomatically stated, is what I expect should President Trump defy odds (again) and get reelected:
The President will remain poll and media driven. No President has ever monitored his public image and standing in the polls as closely as has Trump. Nothing will change here. Even though a re-elected Trump will be a lame-duck, he will remain combative with the media and Democrats.
Frequent personnel changes will continue. Expect more fresh faces in the cabinet and on the White House staff. The quality of these appointees will be commensurate with those of the first term. One exception to the “fresh” part will be the return of Mike Flynn. Could he succeed Pompeo at State? Or maybe become Secretary of Defense?
The President will continue his position on climate change and the usefulness of science as a guide to policy making. Trump will cite any short-term improvements in climate resulting from the shut-down/slow-down of the economy as evidence that climate change is a hoax. He also will continue to second-guess scientists on the coronavirus and anything else where their recommendations may run counter to his “gut” instincts.
Trump will continue to focus on the stock market as a barometer of economic recovery. Hoping for a speedy economic recovery is not a bad thing, but the stock market is not the best metric. The President often equates the strength of the economy with the market. If he continues this, needed interventions to reduce unemployment and meet the urgent needs of families impacted by the economic crisis may not happen.
Trump will continue his “America First” foreign policy. The role America played in the world since 1945 will continue to “evolve” as the U.S. goes it alone on key issues. Expect China, Germany, Russia, and others to fill this void. Some see this as a good thing, but does this increased isolationism increase the chances for armed conflicts—conflicts where America may find itself without allies?
Attorney General Barr will keep his job, and Trump will continue to pursue interpretations of the Constitution that are “novel.” In July 2019, in comments focusing on the Mueller probe, Trump commented, “I have an Article II, where I have to the right to do whatever I want as president.” This perspective, frightening to some of us, was supported in Barr’s infamous memo of June 2018. Barr wrote, “Constitutionally, it is wrong to conceive of the President as simply the highest officer within the Executive branch hierarchy. He alone is the Executive branch. As such he is the sole repository of all Executive powers conferred by the Constitution.” If you were Trump, would you replace Barr?
Trump’s partisanship, and his willingness to dis members of his own party when they disagree with him, will continue. Should the Democrats win the Senate and retain the House, the friction will get worse. Do not expect bipartisan solutions on how best to address the coronavirus and rebuild the economy.
All told, should Trump win in 2020, his leadership style and political priorities will remain the same. This is worrisome. The pandemic most likely will change America more than any of us imagine. And the America of 2016 is not stagnant. In 2021 there will be more poor and struggling people, more people of color, and a myriad of other currently unforeseen challenges.
Is Trump the leader we need to get through this? Einstein said, “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” While not everyone would blame Trump for the depth of the coronavirus crisis in the U.S., many question whether we are on the right path with our current leader. If we suffer a “second wave,” either this summer or in the fall, is Trump the guy we want to lead us? Based on his record, I vote “no.”
J.E. Dean of Oxford is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant. He is a former counsel to the House Committee on Education and Labor. For more than 30 years, he advised clients on federal education and social service policy.
Suzi Peel says
Thanks for this steadily worded piece.
I’d like to reframe the author’s focus (the status quo under a second term,) in terms of worsening TRENDS:
for example
– limitations on the media will hobble our informed engagement in this democracy
– continued diversion of COVID funding intended for small businesses to benefit the 1% and large companies and corporations, even think tanks… will continue weakening local economies
– continued erosion of funding for essential public goods and services – for example USPS, school meals, infrastructure
– reduced ability to adjust policies based on scientific data – notably in public health – is visible in the devastating results of underfunded and demonized experts and agencies
– worsening isolationism with attendant risks mentioned above
– continued exploitation of human and natural resources, endangering all living things (animal, vegetable, and the air and water to sustain life)
These trends indicate grave threats to the republic, and to all who inhabitants of the USA.
Change in 2020 is vital.
Barbara Denton says
While this commentary is really not worth replying to, I am going to say a couple of things. If anyone thinks that Joe Biden is capable mentally or physically of leading our great Country they are deluding themselves. Mr. Dean is totally ignoring the worst political coup of all times in the General Michael Flynn debacle. We had members of the previous administration spying on the Trump campaign during the campaign and before the election.
Trump is the leader we need to get though this. He was duped by Fauci and Birx and their false statistics from England on the projected amount of American deaths. Then to top it all off the University of Washington false graphs put the icing on the cake. Contrary to the Democrats viewpoint Americans are not stupid and can actually think for themselves.
Any man who stood up against the lies, false charges and attempt to remove him from office due to pure hatred can certainly lead our Country for four more years. We need a strong leader. We do not need a man of questionable mental capacity, physical capacity, or has a general aversion to the truth. We do not need a man whose son made millions from the Ukraine Burisma Board he was placed on after his father threatened to withhold aid to Ukraine if an investigation into Burisma was not dropped. He bragged about it on a video.
Based on how Trump led our economy until the Covid 19 virus disrupted it, the jobs reports, the cleaning up of useless regulations that strangled business and individuals, his upholding of religious rights and freedoms and his anti-abortion status are more than enough to make me vote for President Trump again.l
Tom Alspach says
Barb, any “leader” who would ruminate publicly about injections of bleach to “cleanse” the body of the virus, and about inserting UV light into the body for the same purpose, is, as you put it, “a man of questionable mental capacity.”
And anyone who watched this commentary live, or who later saw the tape, and believes his subsequent claim that he was “just being sarcastic” is likewise a person of “questionable mental capacity.”
Deirdre LaMotte says
Well, your next opinion piece can be about defending Jeffrey Epstein. As everyone knows, Flynn was treated like a virus at Trump’s White House in 2017. It was Chris Christie who kicked him out of the Inaugural Committee, not a Democrat. He knew he was dirty. This man was a General Officer in the Army and brought his son in to his dishonorable activities. Obama fired this man primarily for his anti-Semitic and anti Islamic comments and the belief he had been compromised by Russian Intelligence.
He was also later associated with a Russian woman in London. And what the Hell? This man pleaded guilty to his crimes years ago. Now Trump TV is stirring this up to deflect from the abysmal COVID-19 response. Yes, the worst response because your
“man” not only gutted the NSC’s Pandemic team but choose to ignore any warnings for fear it would hamper his imagined popularity. Quite hilarious. Not for those sick or the grieving. So, we are at how many dead?
Question. Why does the” right” embrace criminals and racists? And these people call themselves “patriots and Christians”.
I call them depraved.
J.E. Dean says
Ms.LaMotte: As always when you comment, thanks for reading the piece. I confess to being a little confused after I read your first sentence. I was most definitely not suggesting that a re-elected Trump appoint Michael Flynn to anything. I suggested that Trump, who has a dismal record on appointments, might actually attempt to bring him back into government. I was shocked when DOJs recent announcements. Flynn is a man who has entered a plea of guilty to a felony. He should not be appointed to anything.
I will pass on answering your question. I am as perplexed as anyone. Endorsing or voting for Trump is inconsistent with both Christian and American values.
John Dean
Willard Engelskirchen says
Trump has 1) denigrated science 2) set back 75 years of allied cooperation 3) worked to separate us.
Consider a potential vaccine for CV-19. We are working on it. So is everyone else including the Chinese. Go to the library or open your personal copy of Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science). You may be able to understand part of the first part of the magazine. When you get to the technical stuff most of us cannot understand all or even much of it. (I spent 35 years in research – I know). What I want you to notice is that the Chinese are gaining on us fast. They are inviting their expat scientists back and giving them a great life in China. Anyone in the sciences of engineering will tell you that many of our workers in these fields are foreigners. We are in competition. If the Chinese get a vaccine first, how happy do you think they will be to share it with us after recent statements from our president?
Not even bringing up the fact that STEM positions in grad school without foreign students will not be filled.