These days, risk seems almost unavoidable. If the virus doesn’t get you, the economy will. And this situation will continue for a while. So why seek out risk? That is what I am doing here. The risk is looking stupid or even ridiculous in six months or so. That is what happens when you predict what a Biden Presidency, or a second term of Trump, might look like.
One risk is that Uncle Joe might not become President. The Tara Reade accusations may get him. (They won’t). He may get the virus and die (unlikely given that he is hunkered down in his basement in Delaware). Or something else unforeseen may get him. (Let’s hope not.) Common sense says we should assume he will be around in November. A nostalgia for sanity forces you to hope he will win.
Here is what I predict:
He will select a competent vice president, one ready to step into the Presidency. Amy Klobuchar and Kamala Harris come to mind. They have demonstrated leadership skills and have resumes that qualify them for the Presidency.
He will embrace science. Expect credentialed experts in HHS, Energy, EPA, Interior, and in other agencies and on the White House staff. Commitment to truth and honesty will be the rule.
He will lead with integrity. Biden is not and never has been driven by greed. We will welcome four years without having to periodically Google “emoluments.” Nepotism also will disappear from the headlines.
He will talk about someone other than himself. Narcissism is a serious mental illness. We have learned a lot about it in the last three and a half years. A Biden Presidency will give us a chance to learn about something else.
He will not lie. Won’t that be a welcome change?
He will work to restore American leadership in the world. Note that I have suggested he will strive towards the restoration of our leadership role rather than that he will achieve it. So serious is the damage done under Trump, unfortunately, four years will not be enough to erase the bad feelings now undermining us throughout the world.
He will show genuine compassion towards working people. Biden’s roots as a middle-class guy make it all but a certainty that he will pursue policies to build and strengthen the middle class. He will do this not only because it is right, but because income inequality threatens the fabric of America.
He will appoint competent judges. Some of Trump’s recent appointments suggest that something other than a respect for justice guides his selection process. Biden will choose disciplined, well-qualified jurists appreciated more for their legal experience than their ideology.
Biden will make progress in rebuilding the U.S. economy. Because the economic damage from the pandemic will get worse, the road to returned prosperity is a long one. Biden will seek to aid those facing long-term hardship and make strategic investments in a transformed economy at the same time. This approach will disappoint some on the left, such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, both of whom would welcome a full transition to democratic socialism. It will, however, be the right road. Prosperity is not likely to return without entrepreneurs and the types of innovation driven by private enterprise.
Among current Democratic leaders who will play a role in what I hope will be a successful administration are Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris (possibly as attorney general if she doesn’t serve as vice president), Jay Inslee (Washington State governor who made a lot of sense on climate change), and Mike Bennet (Colorado senator who has the experience to help America’s schools and colleges transition to the post-pandemic world). And how about Hillary Clinton at State?
My next column, should I survive some of the likely reactions to this one, will predict what a second term of Trump might look like. Something to look forward to. (I mean the column, not the second term).
J.E. Dean of Oxford is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant. He is a former counsel to the House Committee on Education and Labor. For more than 30 years, he advised clients on federal education and social service policy
Dan Watson says
Darn. Almost got through an entire article on Democratic matters without seeing “Clinton.” (I was just about to write “Let’s leave the past in the past!” when I remembered the topic is the much-hoped-for administration of Joe Biden. So much for that remark.)
DW
R.C. Shafer says
No more nepotism? Do you honestly believe the public has already developed selective amnesia regarding Biden’s white collar crony Capitalist son, Hunter? Furthermore, as for your boast that Joe Biden “will not lie,” may I remind you of a fact that you have appparently conveniently forgotten — not long after Biden was publicly disgraced after having been caught red-handed plagiarizing a campaign speech, his threatened Senate career was then miraculously rivived by the public outpouring of empathy over the tragic auto accident that claimed the lives of his first wife and 2 chidren. Biden and his political spin doctors furtively “manufactured” a self-serving scenario — designed to deliberately obscure the fact that the late Mrs. Biden’s negligence had been the cause of that fateful accident …… that the innocent driver of the other vehicle involved was never officially charged!……. what kind of man wantonly schemes to leverage the tragic death of his own wife and children for the sake of political gain? Not an honest, moral one, I can tell you that.
John Dean says
Mr. (or Ms.) Shafer: Thank you for reading the op-ed and commenting. I am aware of the 1988 plagiarism incident, but stand by my expectation that Biden will not lie. Even if I am mistaken, it would seem certain that he would not lie as much as Trump does. In any case, let me note that Biden’s first wife was killed in an auto accident in December, 1972. Biden had already been elected Senator. He was Senator-elect. Thus, I don’t think his Senate career was threatened at the time–it had not begun. I don’t know the full details of the accident but I am unaware of any credible allegation that Biden “manufactured a self-serving scenario.” Rather, contemporary reports indicate that he was heart-broken.
John Fischer says
One might agree with most of Mr. Dean’s predictions for a Biden presidency but, given the steep and rapid decline in Mr.Biden’s cognitive abilities, a more interesting and, in the long term, a more pertinent prediction would deal with the presidency of his probable running mate.
In light of policy statements made by Ms. Klobuchar and Ms.Harris during the primary debates, it is likely their presidencies would differ markedly.
(My hope remains Mr. Biden goes outside the box to make the historic and healing choice of Condoleezza Rice.)
John Dean says
Mr. Fischer: Thank you for your comments. While I disagree with you on “the steep and rapid decline in Mr. Biden’s cognitive abilities,” your suggestion is an interesting one. Even strong Biden supporters I know are emphasizing the importance of a strong vice presidential choice.
You are right that Klobuchar and Harris presidencies would differ significantly. That is worth exploring–it is something that I hope the Biden campaign itself is thinking through.
I don’t expect Biden to choose Condolezza Rice, but I share your obvious respect for her. Her record in the Bush administration was that of a smart, ethical, and level-headed leader, all much-needed qualities in the next President.
Thank you again for commenting.
Alan Boisvert says
Please don’t predict what a second term of Trump might look like. It will be unnecessary. But please do predict what will happen to President Lysol post presidency. The kind of stuff dreams are made of.
Mike Huffstetler says
Mr. Dean:
Please do not write your planned second Op-Ed. You truly have to be kidding with this one!
You claim that VP Biden doesn’t lie. You claim that VP Biden will lead with integrity. You claim that VP Biden will not be driven by greed. You claim that VP Biden will restore American leadership in the world. You truly are kidding, but it’s not funny any more, it’s sad, sad that VP Biden is the best candidate that the Democratic Party can put forward!
Let’s start with your claim that VP Biden doesn’t lie.
VP Biden claimed (on video) to have graduated with 3 degrees from college (lie – double major in history and political science from Delaware), to have finished as the outstanding political science student in college (lie – he was not, and graduated with a class rank of 506 out of 688 at Delaware – bottom 17% of his class), to have been the only one in his law school class on a full academic scholarship (lie – he was on a half scholarship), and to have graduated in the top half of his class (lie – actually graduated 76th in his law school class of 85 at Syracuse – try bottom 12% of his class). Bottom line, VP Biden is not very bright!
VP Biden plagiarized 15 pages of a law review article while in law school without giving that person proper credit (claimed he didn’t know the proper rules of citation!). That certainly does not show integrity!
VP Biden now claims not to have done anything wrong related to his son and Ukraine or China while in charge of the foreign policy of the US with respect to those two countries. Lie! He is on video tape bragging about causing the firing of the prosecutor who was investigating the Ukrainian company (Burisma Holdings) that was paying his son $1 million per year to serve on its Board by threatening to withhold $1 billion of aid to Ukraine (the very thing President Trump was falsely accused of doing and impeached for allegedly doing). VP Biden obtained that Ukrainian Board position for his son and obtained a $1.5 billion investment from China into his son’s hedge fund, both while serving as VP – certainly Burisma Holdings & China were expecting nothing in return! He has also used his political office to increase the wealth of several other family members. That certainly shows not only greed, but also family wealth gained through dishonesty, corruption and greed!
VP Biden now claims that Tara Reade is lying about accusing him of molesting her while she was a staff assistant in Biden’s Senate Office. Again, very likely a lie since: (a) there is considerable contemporaneous corroborative evidence supporting Tara Reade’s claim; (b) seven, yes seven, other women have come forward complaining about inappropriate advances towards them by VP Biden, many of those recent advances; and (c) there are considerable videos showing VP Biden’s inappropriate touching, feeling, hugging and sniffing of not only women, but also children! That shows a total lack of both integrity or respect for women!
VP Biden now claims on video to have been in favor of the attack that took out Osama bin Laden (lie – he is also on video saying he told President Obama not to go forward with the Osama bin Laden raid). This shows a complete lack of world leadership, as did his support for the ineffectual Iran Nuclear Deal and his inability during his eight year term as VP to accomplish anything to prevent China’s dominance of the US in both trade and the theft of American technology – but how could he and still seek the $1.5 billion Chinese investment into his son’s hedge fund! This shows a complete lack of integrity and/or the necessary world leadership to stand up to the Chinese Communist Party, something clearly needed in the future to address the Chinese Communist Party’s lies and cover-up related to the Coronavirus pandemic!
These many lies demonstrate VP Biden’s sexual harassment of women, his total lack of a moral compass, his constant inability to tell the truth, and his inability to achieve world leadership while also seeking yet more corruptly gained wealth for his family!
What is especially odd, Mr. Dean, is that you have chosen to write this Op-Ed after the release of documents this week that support the biggest political scandal in Amercian history: the attempted coup of a duly elected President of the United States (President Trump) by corrupt individuals in the Justice Department and at the FBI, a coup that likely went all the way up to outgoing President Barrack Obama and outgoing VP Joe Biden. It was a bloodless coup, but an attempted coup nonetheless, and it ruined the lives of many innocent Trump allies while Robert Mueller conducted an investigation of President Trump based on a “known to be fake” Christopher Steele Russian Dossier. And that fake Steele Russian Dossier was paid for by none other than Hillary Clinton and the Democratic National Committee.
Please be sure, Mr. Dean, to get at least one fact accurate if you are truly going to write a follow-up Op-Ed about a second term with President Trump!
Or, better yet, don’t continue to ignore what has truly been going on for the last 3-1/2 years as the Democratic Deep State has sought to illegally regain the power they so appropriately lost four years ago, and don’t write that follow-up Op-Ed since it will also very likely be extremely factually inaccurate!