Was the 2024 presidential election a realignment election? By David Reel

Following the 2024 presidential election, some political observers have suggested this election was a realignment election that bodes well for Republican presidential candidates and other Republican candidates going forward.

Not so fast.

Any meaningful discussion on that suggestion must include a review of research done by political scientist V.O. Key, a preeminent scholar on American elections and voting behavior.

Key’s criteria for a realignment election includes shifts in party attachment that extends over several presidential elections and appear to be independent of the peculiar factors that influenced the vote at individual elections.

Using Key’s criteria, a determination if the 2024 presidential election marks the start of a political realignment cannot be made yet. It may be eventually but only if the results of future consecutive elections replicate the results of the 2024 presidential cycle elections.

For now, we know the 2024 presidential election was a performance evaluation decision on President Joe Biden’s policies and priorities. After Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden on the ballot, the election became an opportunity to gauge voter approval on their expectations on policies and priorities in a Harris administration.

We also now know the Harris campaign failed to convince a majority of voters that her administration would be different from the Biden administration. Nothing more, nothing less.

2024 also provided voters with performance evaluation decisions for three long term incumbent Democratic U.S. Senators from Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana. All three lost in their reelection bids. In West Virginia, a Republican candidate was elected to replace a Democratic incumbent senator who retired in anticipation of losing reelection.

Eventually, the 2024 presidential and U.S. Senate elections may become viewed as the first in a series of elections that taken together, are true realignment elections. The next election cycles that will help answer the realignment question will be the 2026 Congressional mid-term elections and the 2028 presidential election (one unlikely to have an incumbent candidate).

Which party will do well going forward will be determined in large part to who responds best to key unanswered questions as well as to lessons learned from the 2024 presidential election.

For the Republican Party, key unanswered questions from 2024 include:

Can they maintain support from the influential and demanding MAGA wing of the party?
Some MAGA Republicans are already angry over reports that four Republican Senators opposed Matt Gaetz’s nomination for Attorney General (now withdrawn at Gaetz’s request).

More importantly, can the Republican Party retain blocs of historically Democratic voters who gave higher levels of support to Trump in 2024 than he received from them in 2016 and 2020. That largely unexpected outcome included to varying degrees, more support for Donald Trump and other down ballot Republican candidates from young Black male voters, Hispanic/Latino voters, young male voters, working class voters, and urban voters.

For the Democratic Party, key unanswered questions from 2024 include:

Can they maintain support from the influential and demanding progressive wing of the party?
Already, some progressive Democrats are resisting any effort to pivot to more centrist positions on issues such as immigration restrictions, immigration deportations, deficit spending, and aid to Israel.

More importantly, can the Democratic Party regain blocs of historically Democratic voters who gave lower than anticipated support for Kamala Harris?

All things considered, I suggest THE most important avenues to future election success for both parties are candidates who do the best job of executing the following campaign strategies.

LISTEN INTENTLY TO THE VOTERS
Remember that listening is more than waiting for your turn to talk.
Remember to seek first to understand, then seek to be understood.

RESPECT WHAT VOTERS ARE SAYING, WHETHER OR NOT YOU AGREE WITH THEM
Meet them where they are, not where you think they should be.

ACCEPT VOTER MESSAGE DEVELOPMENT COUNSEL FROM MEDIA GURU FRANK LUNZ
“It’s not what you say or write, it is what people hear or read. You can have the best message in the world, but the person on the receiving end will always understand it through the prism of their own emotions, preconceptions, prejudices, and preexisting beliefs. Get your audience to visualize… imagine. Only when people can see a better future will they consider a change.”

HAVE CONFIDENCE YOUR PARTY CAN DELIVER MEASURABLE RESULTS ON CAMPAIGN PROMISES
There is always another election cycle when voters can exercise their right to vote against candidates they perceive to be unresponsive to their views on what matters most to them.

With regard to the question of whether the 2024 presidential election was the first in a series of elections that will result in a political realignment that bodes well for Republican presidential candidates as well as other Republican candidates long term, the answers are:

To be determined.

Time will tell.

David Reel is a public affairs and public relations consultant who lives in Easton.