Midterm voters in five states will determine if they should join the growing list of places where recreational marijuana use is allowed, even as any use of the drug is still illegal under federal law.

Referendums to legalize recreational use of marijuana are on Nov. 8 ballots in Maryland as well as Arkansas, Missouri, South Dakota and North Dakota.

If approved, those states would join 19 other states and the District of Columbia in allowing use. The current jurisdictions account for about 44% of the United States population.

Though some Republican-trending states such as Montana and Alaska have lifted prohibitions in recent years, most that have legalized recreational use still tend to lean toward Democrats in state and national elections.

That could change this year, as four of the five states with legalization on the ballot — Arkansas, Missouri, and the Dakotas — have Republicans in control of both legislative chambers and in the governor’s office.

“We’ve seen a growing number of states in the middle of the country re-examining their marijuana laws,” said Mason Tvert, a spokesman for the Denver-based cannabis law and policy firm Vicente Sederberg. “This is really just the next step in the evolution of public attitudes toward marijuana policy.

“Generally, what we find is the more people hear about and learn about marijuana, the more likely they are to support making it legal and regulated.”

Adding more states that allow for recreational use provides the possibility that members of Congress from those states will support a fledgling industry and promote federal changes, Tvert said.

Criticism of ballot measures

The initiatives are not without their critics, even on the political left. St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones, a Democrat, said this week she opposed Missouri’s ballot measure because it would exclude Black business owners from the industry, the Missouri Independent reported.

Legalization advocates in Arkansas have also criticized that state’s ballot initiative for being too strict and not including expungement of previous offenses, the Arkansas Advocate reported.

But the trend since Colorado and Washington first allowed recreational use 10 years ago has been toward further legalization.

In Maryland, the legalization question is tied to cannabis reform legislation that includes expungement and community reinvestment opportunities, as well as a focus on racial equity within the cannabis industry.

As the industry has flourished where it is state-legal, it has developed an interest in expanding elsewhere.

“For-profit companies, they have an interest in getting in these other markets,” Beau Kilmer, the co-director of the nonprofit think tank RAND Corp.’s drug policy research center, said.

As more states adopt legalization, the model could shift, Kilmer added. Colorado and Washington “definitely set a precedent” for a for-profit model, but other approaches are possible, he said.

Places in Canada, for example, permit sales only through state-owned stores, which allows the government to set prices and strictly control what products and potencies are available.

“It’ll be interesting to see, especially as more conservative states start having more serious conversations about this, whether or not we see a middle option — the state store approach, for example,” Kilmer said.

Legislation in some states?

As cultural acceptance of marijuana use has increased, more states may opt to address legalization through the “traditional legislative process” rather than through ballot initiatives, Kilmer said.

That could leave space for other approaches beyond the for-profit model.

Each state that passes legalization has adopted varying regulatory approaches, Tvert said. But the model popularized by Colorado and Washington is generally seen as successful.

Former critic U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper, a Democrat who was the state’s governor when the ballot measure passed, said this month his concerns never materialized.

“I feel pretty darn sure now that this is such a better, in terms of almost every measure, such a better societal decision than what I grew up in, and it’s going to have huge impacts,” Hickenlooper said at an event commemorating the 10th anniversary of the state’s legalization.

“This model is something that has opened the door for all these other states. And I’ve personally gone and talked to either the general assembly or the governors in half a dozen states, and… literally, there is no attack, no anxiety that we don’t have a pretty good answer for.”

Social justice concerns

Last month, President Joe Biden pardoned thousands of people convicted of federal offenses and tasked his administration with considering removal of the drug’s Schedule I classification that puts it in the most severe class of drugs of abuse.

Efforts in Congress to legalize marijuana under federal law have stalled in the U.S. Senate, despite broad popularity.

That has left almost half the country living with a major difference between federal and state marijuana law.

As more states move to allow it, questions of fairness for those convicted of prior offenses have proliferated.

In his statement, Biden asked governors to follow his lead and pardon low-level marijuana offenders, a call that largely went unanswered.

In Missouri, Jones’ opposition stems from a provision in the measure that would cap the number of licenses for manufacture and sale of recreational marijuana and give first choice to parties that are licensed to provide medical marijuana — almost all of whom are white.

Legalization push to continue

When they’re put on the ballot, marijuana legalization measures typically pass, though often by relatively slim margins.

Tvert said there was “a good chance” each of the five states would pass their ballot measures on Nov. 8.

No matter the results, the momentum toward more legalization will likely continue, Kilmer said.

“Regardless of what happens on Nov. 8,” Kilmer said. “You’re still going to see a push for this in other states over time.”

By Jacob Fischler. Danielle E. Gaines contributed to this report. 

If the last 60 years of Maryland political history offer any lessons, it’s that Republicans win statewide races when they run toward the middle.

Charles “Mac” Mathias made the leap from the House of Representatives to the U.S. Senate in 1968 by playing up his moderate (some called them “liberal”) views. Former Rep. Robert Ehrlich won the governorship in 2002 by replicating the broad coalition that won him numerous elections in his working-class Baltimore County congressional district. And Larry Hogan focused like a laser on taxes and the economy — eschewing hot-button cultural issues — to win the governor’s mansion eight years ago.

Del. Dan Cox (R-Frederick), who is running for governor this year against Wes Moore (D) and three others, appears to have flung the winning GOP playbook out the window, according to a broad spectrum of observers.

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, Cox has made few efforts to reach beyond his base, leaving even fellow Republicans dumbstruck as to how he intends to overcome the built-in advantage that Democrats enjoy in Maryland due to their voter registration advantage.

In interviews, campaign appearances and debates, Cox pays lip service to issues like inflation, crime and housing affordability — priorities for many voters — but his policy proposals in these areas only nibble at the edges. His website devotes little space to them.

He appears far more animated when he is re-litigating the 2020 White House election, sparring with the state Board of Elections, or railing against “critical race theory,” “gender indoctrination” and “parental rights” — issues that resonate strongly with right-wing voters but are unlikely to get him over the top against Moore.

Publicly, Cox expresses confidence that despite what polls and pundits say, he can win. Some of his most fervent supporters are hoping for a miracle.

In an interview, former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele offered an unsparing indictment of Cox’s failure to capitalize on his primary victory over the Hogan-endorsed center-right candidate, Kelly Schulz. 

“He’s out of politics after this,” said Steele, who served as lieutenant governor under Ehrlich. The next logical move for Cox, who is closely aligned with Donald Trump, he said, will be to pursue the same opportunities sought out by many people in the former president’s orbit.

“What’s he going to do? He’s going to find a space on a very conservative talk radio program and grift. That’s what they all do,” Steele said. “(These) people aren’t serious. They’re not serious. This is all about, ‘How do I turn this s***-show of an act into money, into dollars for me? How do I make money?’”

“It’s bull,” he added. “To paraphrase Prince, this is what it sounds like when candidates can’t win.”

Len Foxwell, former chief of staff to Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) and a part-time communications professor at Johns Hopkins University, said Cox’s primary goal isn’t to succeed Hogan, it’s to “build a far-right brand that he can monetize after the election.”

“He’s made no effort whatsoever to expand his political reach, broaden his coalition, or bring new constituencies under his tent,” Foxwell said. “Rather, he seems content to double-down on his very narrow base of social and cultural warriors.”

Foxwell said Cox’s “aspirational model” appears to be another Dan — Dan Bongino, the hard-charging former Secret Service agent who made a successful pivot to punditry following a pair of unsuccessful campaigns in Maryland.

Observers see other signs that Cox may be driven primarily by what comes next.

Unlike Ehrlich and Hogan, who chose Black running mates who could broaden their appeal in a diverse state, Cox selected Gordana Schifanelli, an attorney from the Eastern Shore best known for right-wing social media attacks. She did not appear with Cox the night he won the Republican primary and appears to have been a non-factor in the campaign.

Rather than take a victory lap after his resounding primary win, Cox laid low, which meant he was effectively defined by Democrats and Hogan, whose rhetorical attacks were merciless.

Cox has failed to unite his own party, nor has he successfully courted key constituencies that often side with Republicans, like the state Chamber of Commerce, whose leader, Mary Kane, a former GOP nominee for lieutenant governor, recently sang Moore’s praises. Cox’s fundraising has been anemic and his press operation sporadic. (Calls from reporters frequently go unanswered and journalists have to cobble together Cox’s appearances from his Facebook feed.)

During an interview on Bloomberg on Tuesday, Cox made numerous false claims during a disjointed appearance on the influential “Balance of Power” program. He called Hillary Clinton “an election denier,” even though she conceded defeat within hours following her loss to Trump in 2016. He falsely said that Moore wants to shift $500 million from the Baltimore Police budget to social programs. And he referenced “my economic plan” to fight inflation, though his website lists no such plan.

Host David Westin was openly skeptical of many of Cox’s statements.

When Hogan ran for re-election against Democrat Ben Jealous in 2018, he pulled together a coalition of “Democrats for Hogan” to burnish his bipartisan bona fides. Gaithersburg Mayor Jud Ashman, one of the Hogan Democratic endorsers, said Cox’s strategy bears no resemblance to the governor’s. He called Cox’s harping on the 2020 election “disqualifying.”

“Whatever he’s doing — not to be too glib or anything — but it seems like a dead-man-walking situation,” Ashman said. “I have no idea is motivating him to make the moves that he’s making.”

A Republican member of the General Assembly from a GOP stronghold said “nobody” understands Cox’s approach to the race. “Everybody’s like, what’s he doing? We haven’t seen or heard from the guy, so everybody’s like ‘this race is over, just let it go.’” The officeholder spoke on the condition of anonymity to preserve their chances for re-election.

Steele’s criticism isn’t limited to Cox. He also blames his party for failing to take advantage of Hogan’s “successful” two terms to mount a strong gubernatorial campaign and perhaps pick up a couple county executive and legislative seats in the process. “We’re not in a position to do anything but get our asses kicked in two weeks,” he said, his voice rising. Steele briefly considered running for governor himself in 2021 but opted against it.

While criticism of Cox is flowing freely — and predictions of a lopsided election result are the norm — pollster Mileah Kromer thinks he may not be wired to reach beyond his base. Nonetheless, she sees little chance of his strategy being successful.

“This is clearly not the path to winning a general election vote,” she said. “The problem is that his values — and the things that he cares about and talks about — just don’t match up with what the average voter in Maryland wants.”

By Bruce DePuyt