Is Donald Trump a cancer inside the body of the Republican party that eventually dies? As outrageous as the question may sound to hard-core Trump supporters, it is not unreasonable. Trump has been indicted for 91 felony counts, accused of rape in the E. Jean Carroll case, found guilty of business fraud in New York, and is engaging in progressively more worrisome rhetoric, including racist statements, threats to prosecutors, and intimidation. Given the party’s continued embrace of Trump, likely to result in his nomination for another term as president, it is easy to say that the party is rotten to the core and should die.
Time will tell whether the surprising (to some of us) revival of Trump mania will blow up later this year. Among the foreseeable scenarios are one or more criminal convictions; dramatic new disclosures graphically documenting Trump’s attempt to retain power through violence becoming public; and Trump finally doing something that convinces his base that he has gone too far. What might that be? How about a campaign commercial claiming that “God Made Trump.” The Trump campaign apparently did not make the commercial. However, the ex-president posted it on social media when he saw it. He apparently found it accurate. Something that should scare all Americans.
In the 1970’s, an incumbent president, Richard Nixon, was found to have lied to the American public, authorized a break-in at the headquarters for the Democratic National Committee.. Voters responded to Nixon’s resignation, taken to avoid impeachment, as an admission of guilt. They rejected Gerald Ford in the 1976 election as a repudiation of Nixon and his party.
Watergate not only cost the Republicans the presidency in 1976 but also led to the election of large Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. The newly elected legislators were dubbed “Watergate babies.” Several of them served decades in Congress. But in 1980, Ronald Reagan won the presidency. The GOP was back.
Unlike Nixon’s years in politic, Trump’s career is more of a personality cult than the embodiment of a political philosophy. There are, however, similarities. Both presidents promised to fight the crime that they claimed the other party encouraged. Both presidents promised lower taxes. Both presidents claimed to be foreign policy geniuses, although Nixon was more subtle about it than Trump. Nixon won re-election in 1972 by a landslide. Trump lost in 2020, in large part, by alienating a large part of the American electorate with racism and politics of division.
Today Trump is running a campaign built on the assumption that many voters, including sizeable blocks of Democrats and independents, have lost faith in Joe Biden largely because he is “too old.” He is counting on potential Biden voters staying home. He also is working to maintain his base through a bizarre campaign that ranges from calling judges and prosecutors names and promising retribution against his enemies, who, Trump claims are also the enemies of the rest of us.
Earlier this week I saw the “God Sent Trump” video. It is disgusting but, despite apparently being produced as satire, some Trump supporters apparently agree with it. An interview with a pair of likely Iowa caucus members included one Iowan explaining that Jesus Christ suffered persecution to save us, and that Trump is doing the same. Had I not known better, I might have thought I was watching a Saturday Night Live skit.
History suggests that political parties survive crises. Thus, the prayers of some of us that the Republican party will die and be replaced with a more principled conservative party are likely to go unanswered. Both of today’s principal political parties have survived periods of extreme division. I just finished reading President Garfield, a biography of the 20th president. James Garfield won the 1880 Republican nomination as a compromise candidate on the 36th ballot. (He was assassinated less than a year into his presidency.)
The probability is that once Trump leaves the political stage, the party will undergo a period of soul searching to find a new philosophy. That likely will result in Democrats, if they can control the centrifugal forces within their ranks, enjoying an electoral revival. When will this happen? It could start as early as 2024 if Trump is escorted, possibly by federal marshals, from politics but definitely by 2029 when the possibility of Trump serving as president will end. (I hope.)
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.
Matt LaMotte says
The Republican Party has evolved quite a bit over the last 160+ years but I’m afeared it’s in last throes. If Trump wins, he will NOT be leaving the White House nor will he need the Rep party anymore. To paraphrase, “Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely!”
John Dean says
Thanks for the reply. You are right that absolute power corrupts absolutely. Fortunately, Trump, if elected, will eventually leave the White House, probably before the end of his term due to health problems or more legal problems. I like to think that once he leaves the political stage, sanity might start to return to the GOP.
Wilson Dean says
Some polls have suggested were Trump to be convicted on any of the felony charges he faces, it would not result in a wholesale shift away from him in the Republican party but would be sufficient to sway enough independents and Republicans to give the victory to Biden. This might finally convince Republicans to give up on their current course of trying to elect an American Hitler and instead return to the more rational conservative ideology that has been their more successful trademark in the past. Republicans haven’t been quick learners in grasping that Trump is a true loser, but a second straight defeat might do the trick.
John Dean says
I agree. If he loses in November, I believe his “magic” among his followers will disappear.
Mickey Terrone says
Hello John. Excellent, thought provoking article. The Republican Party can easily be saved and revived into a serious voice for the American people if 1) their rank and file cease to be mesmerized by the shiny blond blob and vote for a legitimate candidate or 2) Trump gets seriously ill and can’t perform. Number 1 isn’t happening, though.
I do have to wonder what Republicans are thinking when they say Trump is the “only” person who can save America. I had to hold my nose to watch “God made Trump”. It is a desperate and blasphemous sham targeted at weak minded people. Claiming God’s hand in the campaign of such an immoral, vile human being is a sacrilege.
How can any true American cast a vote for a candidate who claims he can legally commit any crime if he is president. That is a dictator and a madman, not a US president. As a Democrat, I am strongly anti-fascist. I’ve been to the anti-fascist US Cemetery at Normandy, France and will never support some draft dodging slug turning America into an authoritarian state after all those American patriots made the ultimate sacrifice to maintain democracy and freedom here and around the world. Amoral Republican, bible-toting politicians are using Christianity to campaign for a practicing heathen like Trump places all of them in the same boat, and its not the Ark. Hopefully, it will be more like the Titanic. If the radical right is all aboard, though, their demise may be America’s safest route toward fulfilling our promise as one nation, under God, with liberty and justice for all.
John Dean says
Mickey, thanks for your comment. I was shocked at the argument at the immunity hearing. The argument that the president could order his enemies killed by federal agents and not face accountability was shocking. Yet, as has happened so often, there seems to be no outrage on the right.
Darrell parsons says
I read something yesterday about equating Trump with Hitler. The writer suggested that it’s a mistake because it alludes to some sense of power which makes him more appealing to his base. And that maybe it’s better to simply label him as the loser he has proven himself to be.
trudy wonder says
I don’t discount the writer’s point (I’m a retired communications professional, I get it) but it’s a sad day when equating someone with Hitler is seen as a compliment to the individual vs the horror it represents in reality.