Human re-shaping of our natural infrastructure has confronted us with existential issues. This column is one in a series that began with, The Issue of Our Time.
Climate change! What am I to think? What should I do? How can a non-scientist navigate the claims and counter-claims? Scientists themselves argue about whether the threat we face should be called an emergency.
Regardless of what one thinks it is not too difficult to reach an unsettling conclusion—“what I do or don’t do is not going to really move the dial on the threats of climate change.” After all there are over 7.5 billion people on the earth and we are measuring atmospheric carbon in parts per million—global atmospheric carbon dioxide was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm in 2018.
As those data spin around in our heads, many I suspect feel a bit like Peggy Lee’s refrain in the song “Is That All There Is.” With an upbeat but bluesy inflection she sang, “If that’s all there are my friends, then let’s keep dancing, Let’s break out the booze and have a ball.” And that is the problem—how do you break down a massive challenge into constituent parts, answers, plans and motivations? Or for that matter even understand how the challenge might be met?
Denial is a not unexpected response. It is not a studied denial; it is a thoroughly human one. Climate projections, after all, result from scientific modeling, are fully understood by a miniscule number of humans and inevitably they too have their biases.
Martin Weitzman, a Harvard professor specializing in environmental economics, died recently. In reflecting on his legacy, The Economist said he tried to avoid testifying in Washington because “how could an economist ever make a precise recommendation in such a complex world.”
So we ask, can computer models produce truth when we know that accuracy depends on who is in charge of the model—the inputs and the analytics?
If those in charge of the model are perceived to have ulterior motives, there is a breakdown of trust. And truth and trust have an inescapable relationship. The one, trust, produces confidence in the other. Untrustworthy sources have difficulty delivering truth—real or perceived. If I were a climate scientist invited to testify before a Congressional Committee I would ask that the invitation come from the Committee leaders of both Parties.
And then you get to the hypocrisy of climate change advocates flying here and there urging people, who just get by, to pay much more for their gas to discourage the use of fossil fuels. Or, coming up with a political package that will cost trillions of dollars. It is no wonder that candidate Trump found it easy to campaign against the forces that want to take your car away or your hamburger or whatever.
It is why Emanuel Macron’s, France’s president, recommended tax on gasoline stoked the anger of the yellow jackets that brought Paris to its knees. Today the most oft cited reason for the mass demonstrations that have blossomed like the daffodils of spring is the forced increase in transportation costs.
The question is what can be done to bring the two in harmony? Can bold action to disrupt climate change align with the imperatives of politics? One thing is clear to me: if the advocates preach Armageddon unless we are carbon free by some relatively early date not enough will be accomplished.
Inevitably, claims of truth that foreshadow unwanted consequences carry a much higher burden of proof. And, as those who see themselves as the truth-tellers take on a messianic intensity, opposition becomes tribal. It’s my tribe’s story against your side’s version—the hell with truth.
In the weeks ahead I will weigh in on the toxic misalignment between climate and political sciences. Climate science often speaks the language of absolutes; political science deals with the art of the possible. Can they be aligned?
Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.
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Hugh (Jock) Beebe says
Mr. Sikes,
Your editorial emphasizes the apparent disconnect between long range difficult needs and immediate satisfactions more easily achieved. Well, yes, that is recognizable as a common problem, and one solved by the political reality that short term thinking gets more votes.
But you emphasize the attitude of older adult people and leave unexamined the concerns of younger adults, especially those with children of their own. The “Peggy Lee” philosophy allows indulgence without a burden of responsibility. But, wait a minute, how about including three additional thoughts:
1. Shouldn’t the senior generation need to acknowledge a debt to the planet for failing to be stewards of the environment and allowing the excesses of industrial harm to the Earth?
2. Defining the problem as a “conflict” between climate science and politics seems analogous to apples vs. oranges. Climate science produces facts and politics is all about emotion, biases and self interest. The two realms are different, but that doesn’t make it necessary for them to be in conflict. An example: take a look at the difference in national attitudes and actions about climate change between Denmark and the United States.
3. Abandoning the younger generation to solve impending environmental problems on its own while we seniors simply say, “Party on on, dude” appears to lack moral conviction.
The path you seem to favor is an easy sell. Confronting climate reality requires courage and strength.
Al Sikes says
Stay tuned
Robert Charles Shafer says
As recently as the early 1970s, I co-authored 3 national magazine articles — Audubon among the most prestigious — on the impending menace of acid rain and atmospheric ozone holes in the Earth’s ionosphere. The “fear’ factor back then was nearly as intense as today’s popular hysteria regarding “climate change” —- so-called “experts” were predicting that mankind and Mother Earth were headed straight for another geological Ice Age before the 2000 Millennium! Remember how our temporary insanity with Y2K madness and the impending Ice Age turned out to be such a total misfire? ……… I’m just saying ………