Business markets are unsentimental. Leading investors don’t wear the hats of partisans. And they certainly don’t wear a MAGA hat—an adornment of emotion until President Trump pivots. Risk is measured, rated, and informs real-time investing and relatedly our various accounts of wealth.

President Donald J Trump has decided to restructure international markets for goods and services according to how he prefers them. Because he is President of the United States, he has great influence, and the markets pay attention and at times are frighteningly unstable.

However, there is a crucial “but”. When any powerful entity decides to manipulate wealth markets, they cannot choose the starting point; the overarching markets are shaped by a complex range of forces that were years in the making.

Most international business has for decades been organized around what is generally a free trading framework. Sourcing, manufacturing, logistics, transportation and legal arrangements have been organized around this expansive framework and have generated immense investments and returns for one reason—open markets work. The sum of our buying and selling points the way forward. People who make things listen to people who buy things.

So here we are. The United States has a President who thinks we run trade deficits because we have been treated unfairly. The truth is that on balance our deficits in goods and services bought and sold are fueled by consumption and related debt. Lets face it, we are a consumer-based economy; we buy what we want to buy and often borrow money to do it.

But, and this is the central point. If we choose to protect, we must do so with strategic precision. Countries that retreat into protectionism do not lead anything and especially economic prosperity.

President Bill Clinton’s key political strategist, James Carville, upon assessing the distribution of political power during the Clinton Administration quipped, “I want to come back as the bond market.” When the bond markets raise the cost of borrowing, as is happening in our country, a downward shift is beginning. And political power as Carville noted derives from economic success.

We are 18 months away from a new election and while sentiment in November, 2026 will elect a new House of Representatives, until then watch the bond market. It will be ever attentive, and its signals will not be made up by a clutch of grasping politicians. Fortunately, even so weighty a person as President Donald J Trump, will be forced to pay attention. Political power most frequently derives from economic success.

In the meantime, watch how Republican leaders who control both Houses of Congress deal with our federal debt. If they persist in reducing tax revenue more than expenditures, you will know the Republican Party is not a serious political movement any longer.

Lisa Murkowski

“I am sick to my stomach as the administration appears to be walking from our Allies and embracing Putin, a threat to democracy and US values around the world.”

“We are all afraid.…But we are in a time and a place where I certainly have not been before…..And I’ll tell you, I am oftentimes very anxious myself about using my voice, because retaliation is real. And that is just not right.” Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, Alaska

Due to her opposition to some of his initiatives, former President Donald Trump pledged in June 2020 to support a Republican challenger to Murkowski, saying: “Get any candidate ready, good or bad, I don’t care. I’m endorsing. If you have a pulse, I’m with you!”

History tells us the Trump candidate will need more than a pulse. Senator Murkowski was challenged in the Republican primary in her home state of Alaska in 2010 and lost. She then ran as a write-in candidate in the general election that year and won. In short, the Senator did not yield to intimidation and was rewarded.

Maybe, just maybe, the crowd that has gravitated to the Republican Party should be attracted to individual courage and independence. They were certainly frontier values.

We always live in times of challenge; that is in the nature of things. But today’s challenges, domestically and internationally, are of a different kind. And many of the most serious ones are technology driven—defined by algorithms most politicians do not understand.  Just in case the electorate, regardless of Party identification, wants to navigate successfully the challenges of the day, America needs more than leaders with a pulse.

Gil Maurer

When I departed Washington and government work in 1993, I left behind a world filled with emotion. Governments are led by people who are on missions of one sort or another.

I remember vividly an exchange between two Senators and a government executive on an appropriation to build low-end housing. The question to the housing executive, “how much new housing is needed”—the Senator sitting close by quipped, “how high is up?” This was the kind of exchange that would have resulted in a quiet but knowing chuckle from Gil Maurer.

Gil was a good friend who died recently. The art world, in particular has recognized his passing—he was an artist, collector and leader of arts organizations.

Our work together was at The Hearst Corporation. We were beginning to invest in the rapidly emerging digital media world. This was/is the technology force that has upended much of the analog media world—think newspapers, magazines, broadcast networks and on and on. The adaptive approach Hearst took required answers to very difficult questions: where are the markets going and how long before they disrupt our businesses or worse?

Gil believed in an adaptive strategy. Test your theories, but don’t bet the company. Listen to what the market says about your tests, investments, and move on adaptively.

Gil Maurer was a quiet but deeply insightful presence and I was fortunate to have enjoyed his company and penetrating questions.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

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Thursday was vivid; the sun unburdened. The trees were flowering—what a beautiful moment. Would that it would have lingered but life can move from Spring to Winter quickly and that happened to Marty and me. Deep winter.

Until yesterday we had our 5th edition of a black Labrador named Jazz and then we didn’t. We got the report mid-afternoon from the Vet. Jazz had a urinary track blockage that could not be repaired. And now she is gone. The sun was eclipsed and now I am struggling to retrieve memories—to hold on.

As we drove home from the Vet my wife and I recounted our joys and from time to time, what are now sad memories, turned poignant. None more vivid than our trip to the Vet in the New York Catskills with Jazz having been involuntarily festooned with porcupine quills. She was stoic; well what choice did she have? I suspect the scent lingered in her memory. It was her last encounter with the spiny beast.

Jazz, maybe instructed by the porcupine, liked people more than her four legged peers. At dog parks she made an inerrant path for those whose love would be reciprocated.

And boy did she love the Fall. I suspect most thick coated dogs are happy when the summer has given way. She loved trips in the field to be followed by our time together in a duck blind. The Fall’s temperatures were inviting and her eyes didn’t hesitate to go skyward as the waterfowl migration gathered force.

I’ll be telling Jazz stories until, well, I am done telling stories. She is gone but the memories will remain vivid. Expressions of love are like that!

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

In advance of Easter and Christmas I reflect on my own faith with pen in hand.

We all know what a mystery is and we are certainly drawn to a good one. The characters draw us in and the circumstances puzzle us. And a talented writer often surprises us at the end. Life is like that; there is often some distance between our plans and realities.

If we are at all reflective, we find ourselves from-time-to-time thinking about an unsolvable mystery — one that confounds and frustrates the scientists and philosophers who choose to take on the deepest mystery — how did life begin.

At the risk of brevity, let me begin with Ecclesiastes 3:11, it frames the inquiry:

“He has made everything beautiful in its time. He has also set eternity in the human heart. Yet no one can fathom what God has done from beginning to end.”

It’s that “eternity in the human heart” phrase that pulls me in. What does it mean? What does the heart have to do with it? Can we put the eternity thing aside? I can’t get the questions out of my mind. They are the most important part of the mystery in my view.

I say the most important part because it is pivotal as our life unfolds. It is something we are said to carry around. Of course if we dismiss any relationship to eternity then we do not start with Ecclesiastes. If we start there what kind of claim does eternity have on us? Conversely, if eternity is “set” in our heart, shouldn’t we try to pay attention to its voice.

Eternity’s voice is more easily comprehended as family history. We all know at least something about our family tree and we speculate on where we got our blue eyes or height or even temperament or whatever.

It is hard to think about what is in our heart without going back to the beginning and not just the beginning of my family.

I was raised in the church. Or maybe more accurately, by parents who went to the church service after they dropped me off at Sunday School. And at some point along the way I began to connect “eternity” with the here and now – today, this minute. We were urged to and I tried. Or, drawing on Ecclesiastes, “eternity in the human heart” — my heart.

In this construct, eternity had to be transcendent. No eternity, no God. And, of course, no God no transcendent benchmarks. No God; we are in charge and where do we get our inspiration? What is the source of our “soul food” if we dismiss soul?

But before going further, I want to go back to Sunday School, at least as I recall it. Decades after the fact, I wonder: was this just an indoctrination exercise drawing on the works of ancient “A” type personalities who were good at insistences? Or was I being taught lessons from God, entwined in Biblical narratives?

Now, let me fast-forward from biblical times to present time and the song “Looking For Love In All the Wrong Places,” which is a song about our time.

It begins:

Well, I spent a lifetime lookin’ for you
Single bars and good time lovers were never true
Playing a fools game, hoping’ to win
And tellin’ those sweet lies and losing’ again
I was lookin’ for love in all the wrong places
Lookin’ for love in too many faces
Searching’ their eyes
Lookin’ for traces of what I’m dreaming of
Hoping to find a friend and a lover
I’ll bless the day I discover another heart
Lookin’ for love

“I’d bless the day I discover another heart looking for love”! An abiding question is whether there is any of the eternal in our earthly adventures? Is love, for example, all passion or should we be looking for qualities that foster a deeper, lasting relationship? And I am talking about all love not just the romantic version.

Mark Twain observed that “No man or woman really knows what perfect love is until they have been married a quarter of a century.” Is perfect love possible?  Love in its several relationships is a puzzle. As is our comprehension of the eternal.

But, one thing seems clear to me. The eternal dimension— “eternity on our heart”—will not be a serious exploration if God is left out of the equation. To me, that is the reason I believe God exists.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

“Walking around money”, it was called. I was twelve years old and helping my Dad run for a seat on Sikeston, Missouri’s Board of Aldermen. In plain sight, I saw money being given to voters. I was told that it was not uncommon to pay somebody to go vote, and the amount of money was generally used to buy a half-pint of whiskey. Whiskey was the pegged commodity, but I suspect the quality was wanting.

The vote transaction was secured by a “driver” who would pick up the voter and take him/her to the polling place. Fast forward 70 years and you have the world’s richest man joined by other very rich Americans, left and right, supplying “walking around money”. In the just concluded election in Wisconsin it didn’t work—hoorah! Elon Musk—politics is not your sweet spot.

Wading into trying to control political spending is self-abuse. One of my heroes, John McCain, fought the good fight to control it and ultimately lost. But, this is an important intersection where our forms of government and business compete.

If I were trying to minimize money in politics, I would use artificial intelligence.  Every check written to help a candidate or cause would need to bear some sort of algorithmic signature. Beyond that there would be some upper limit, a ceiling, that could not directly or indirectly be exceeded.

The law can be written and technology can secure transparency without having hundreds of thousands of clerks checking, combining and publishing reams of paper. If I were to research how to keep track of donations so that voters could keep track of who was giving to whom, I would start at The Federal Reserve. Computer technology would, in the ultimate sense, supply the answer.

And while working toward the goal of transparency, I would consult with the best constitutional attorneys to make sure a constitutionally tight law was enacted. Money is speech and given speech’s protection great care will be needed.

The problem with money as speech is that money is allocated by a range of factors that twist and turn with economic cycles and good fortune that bears scant relationship to merit. If our system of wealth distribution, ultimately requiring societal buy-in, results in handing out billion-dollar merit badges, does Elon Musk deserve an estimated 342 of them?

But of course the bigger story is that the President and richest man in the world were not able to team up and buy or bully a win. The result in Wisconsin was a win for America.

And it is going to get worse for President Trump if he continues his erratic attempts to drum up prosperity using the tools and rhetoric of tariffs. But, one thing to keep in mind. Tariffs, to many, represent an obscure economic policy that can be made to sound rational. Forcing Canada to become America’s 51st state is simply irrational without a costume.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

I am looking out on the East River, New York City. Marty, my wife, and I lived in New York for a number of years and I had gone to the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) once. So when I needed to get rid of an old knee (bone on bone) I went back to see its impressive cast of orthopedic specialists. I have been pleased.

But this is about what makes HSS so good. The cast at HSS is an international mix blended with a number of second generation Americans and beyond. They have been talented and considerate.

The newer arrivals on our shores, strivers all, help make the operation run like a digital clock with a friendly face. The doctors and their various specialist assistants look like a cast from the United Nations. People come from all over the world for a surgical stay.

But this is not about medicine; this is about people. America offers liberty which makes strivers essential. Skill and motivation is a necessary pairing regardless of your birthplace. And when America is working best at least a modicum of humility and generosity are in the cultural stew. America is always among the top countries in voluntary giving.

When Americans go shopping we mostly look for lower prices. American shopping attitudes enabled Walmart, Amazon and a range of Dollar stores. We work hard and specialize in not wasting money when we buy goods and services.

Immigrants are often the human drive that makes this work. From lawns to construction to logistics and storage—well you name it. Sure, there are a lot of hardworking Americans in fourth and fifth generation families and beyond—many of their leaders are contractors, farmers, retail owners and the like and certainly not resting on their laurels.

America is also fortunate to have a prosperous mix of talent and research centers that lead the tech industry. Check out the last names; you won’t find many West European names. The Asian influence has been especially pronounced. All in all when markets and talent are allowed to work we do very well.

We are now throwing people out of our country—we should keep in mind the estimate of undocumented immigrants (3.5%). So as we enforce laws lets not intentionally or unintentionally think we who have been here a long time are somehow superior. I don’t know many multi-generational Americans who have learned a new language or new social patterns or had to establish themselves without help from a parent or grandparent or family name. Or, a network of friends accumulated from elementary to post-secondary schools and club settings.

Over the years I have bought a lot of stuff that immigrants have built or serviced. Rarely have I been disappointed with the work or the price. And since we are all offspring of immigrants—we shouldn’t act like we just won a merit scholarship.

So lets not misunderstand how America became great. Today’s families were at the beginning immigrants and those that came after 1788 were encouraged and protected by a profound Constitution. Yes, striving immigrants traveling across the Atlantic Ocean to find freedom. And from-time-to-time we have been especially fortunate to have a government leadership class that understood both the joys and burdens of freedom.

By all means we should control our borders, but we should make sure our legal processes provide the accused with fairness. And the worst thing to do is foment ethnic hostility.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

There you go again Sam.” No, this is not the famous “Play It Again Sam”, a Bogart quip from the 1942 classic Casablanca, but Ronald Reagan reacting to Sam Donaldson, his media critic, working for ABC News.

Reagan, of course, was President Reagan and he was deflecting a media critic. Look it up, he had a smile on his face. He rather enjoyed sparing with the news media. By the way, back then, the 1980s, there was no Fox News.  There was just the big three networks—CBS, ABC, and NBC plus PBS. All employed hundreds of journalists who tended to be Democrats. As it is said, “Democrats are more likely to go to journalism school.”

Looking back it is hard to fathom today’s vengeful tones of President Donald J Trump. Perhaps unfair, but looking back I see Reagan, a secure man with self-confidence, using his theatrical skills to pair with his political ones.

Trump, too, has an acting background. But he seems insecure—indeed brittle—although tough for sure. Tough can be helpful when it gives you inner strength, but when it turns to vengeful attacks from the human embodiment of the government, it is problematic. It induces fear. The motivation is to check, not balance.

I was, in a much earlier life, a radio broadcaster. The stations were not of much financial consequence, but in each of their communities they were part of the news media and each relied on the Associated Press (AP). Yes the same news organization that is now being penalized by the President because in its style book the Gulf on the western side of Florida is called the Gulf of Mexico.

Incidentally, the Associated Press is based in the United States. Its main competitors are headquartered elsewhere—Reuters in Canada and AFP in France.

Frankly, I don’t care what the Gulf is called, but I do care that the President has chosen to kick the AP out of the newsroom because it won’t use his newly named Gulf of America. Is this censorship by exclusion?

The attack on the AP goes along with his Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chair penalizing CBS and ABC at Trump’s direction or approval or both. And, President Trump by Executive Order claims he can now veto FCC actions.

Mr. President think back. On The Apprentice you  expressed choice and the families of those you choose not to salute didn’t sue you for disparagement. You, of course, were not the government so you were free to discriminate—indeed it was part of the show. Now that you are the government, you might want to spend an evening with old Ronald Reagan video clips.

Civility is important. Turning neighbors against each other is toxic. You have the ultimate platform—the “bully pulpit,” as former President Theodore Roosevelt called it. “Bully” as Roosevelt used it meant ultimate. He knew and you know that each day your voice will command attention—that you have an immeasurable opportunity to shape public opinion and affect the culture.

The ultimate verdict on your presidency will not turn on  tax or foreign policies, but on how you left the country. If democracy is irreparably damaged, that will be the lead in the history books. Recall: we are the UNITED States of America.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

The Republican Party that was stood up by Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt and more recently Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan no longer exists. It is no longer a Party where political rivalry evolves into strength because today’s default position is to punish dissent.

It is not premature to wonder how the Party’s voters might discern talent as Trump is succeeded. He is in his late 70s and cannot be reelected.

What will voters look back on? The pocketbook is the answer and tariffs as a vehicle to make America more prosperous is a bizarre policy. Tariffs to narrowly protect strategic industries might make sense but as an all-purpose tool, history and today’s stock market push back.

And to take on our most immediate neighbors by violating trade agreements while demeaning their leadership raises questions about competency that were asked by Republicans attacking Joe Biden.

Sure, America has a big stick, but as Teddy Roosevelt advised, “Speak softly and carry a big stick”. Trump’s stick is big, although getting smaller, but he seems incapable of speaking softly. Brow-beating Vladimir Zelensky as the cameras rolled was a definitional moment.

One of the strangest moves by the President is putting Elon Musk out-front. Musk is characteristic of the Tech Bros—smart but lacking in common sense and empathy.

Musk is as bad at politics as he is good at tech ventures. Earlier this week he called Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona “a traitor” because of his support for Ukraine. Kelly, a former naval commander and astronaut is a true patriot. Perhaps Musk, a South-African-American, needs a course in patriotism. A real patriot would now say “I’m sorry.” But that is not the Trump or Musk way. And as Vice-President JD Vance demeans Zelensky he needs a tutorial in courage.

The Trump beginning has been mostly a flood tide. He has projected strength. His energy level is outstanding. He has been decisive and often in ways popular with the MAGA crowd, insisting, for example, that we change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.

Vladimir Putin has been eating it up—ice cream with a cherry on top. Putin, an egregious imperialist, can cite Trump’s verbal ambitions to take over Canada, the Panama Canal and Greenland to justify his own conduct. And as negotiations to end the war in the Ukraine take place, Trump’s tell is a deuce of clubs in the upcoming card game.

Flood tides turn and low tides reveal. President Trump is now saying that we might have to endure a recession to get to his holy grail. Well if you are worth billions of dollars downturns are not all that difficult, but reflect on this: the Wall Street Journal has cited recent data that show 10% of Americans consume 50% of annual consumption. In short, the great majority of people have to work very hard to make ends meet.

Social issues have been very helpful to Republicans as Democrats have often turned on traditional morality. But, political history shows that kitchen table issues prove to be more pivotal.

So what does the low tide reveal: a political version of dead fish and rotting seaweed.

• Assaults on free speech
• Infantilizing Congress with Executive Orders that undermine it while empowering courts
• Appointing ill-prepared loyalists to key posts that need seasoned leaders
• Degrading America’s position as the most important global leader while trying to assert it
• Joining Russia, China, North Korea and Iran in symbolic UN vote
• Insisting the obvious did not happen including 2020 election results, invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and re-characterizing the attack on the Capitol as a patriotic event.
• Attempts to defy the law of economics (rising prices) using tariffs

Among America’s greatest assets is our well-established constitutional democracy and adherence to the rule of law. On the economic side our size, scale, dollar dominance, and centrality in the international supply chain come quickly to mind.

But America can be defeated. While our constitutional principles are profound, our human leadership is not.

I tell my Republican friends who have decided to stick with Trump and work within the Party to improve its future  that internal reform is likely a fool’s errand. Yes, it will eventually happen, but only after a blood bath.

And believing that friendship is way more important than politics, I enjoy talking to my friends who are Democrats. I reflect that we are spending way too much money on programs that have barely moved the dial after decades of trial. I add, to some discomfort, that attempting to re-work social standards through tradition busting laws will not work. Identity politics is just one more version of yielding to the loudest voices or the biggest bank accounts.

But let me not leave it there. To the glue-sniffers in the Republican Party, Trump won because President Biden  and his cast of reality deniers handed him the election. He should govern with some measure of humility. He will not; hubris eventually loses.

Now to a brief coda. Americans faith in the Supreme Court has suffered. The Court’s integrity can be revived if it reasserts our Constitutional foundation. Most importantly its upcoming decisions, interpreted, should be “Congress, get your house in order; you have important work to do.”

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Writing in 2025 comes with major challenges. In the radically changed communications world in which we live where is the tipping point? How many words on any given subject will be a turn-off? So here are some quick takes on disparate subjects that briefly made the headlines last week.

“Big, Beautiful Bill”

President Donald J. Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” is projected to add $2.5 trillion to the national debt over ten years. We need to subtract, not add, and adding to the national debt is not conservative.

Winner of Five Oscars

The film Anora just won five Oscars. One critic has described it as genre-bending. Parts of it are riotously frantic and funny. But for those who are considering watching it, the film also incinerates guardrails that have previously protected or deflected audiences from the visceral side of sex clubs.

Under the Bus

DJT did not get elected to end US support for Ukraine. Nor, to join in voting at the United Nations with the tyrannical set of nations targeting the US in world affairs—Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. This abrupt departure of geopolitical sense has and will continue to cause harm to the US and compromise Ukraine by shoving them not to the table but under a very big bus.

The National Pastime

Baseball is struggling. On the major league side, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a talent payroll of $303.9 million, while the Miami Marlins spend $43.63 million. The mean is $152.7. And comparatively, the game moves more slowly than other pleasant distractions.

Baseball’s leadership is now trying new gymnastic moves in an effort to protect the financial well-being of its product and its owners. Wake up; baseball needs fewer games and more intra-season suspense. The current schedule is for 162 games. My suggestion: divide the season up into four 40-game series, with the winners from those series playing each other in a year-end World Series face-off.

Crypto-Currencies

Finally, President Trump signed an Executive Order establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve. According to press reports, the president has a $20 million investment in cryptocurrencies.

If crypto-currencies are to receive the imprimatur of the White House, there should be a substantial effort to enlighten the public on this move and, more broadly, what role these currencies will play in our country’s financial strength.

Conclusion

Finally, here’s an invitation: Pile on, post to one or more subjects of interest, and tell the Spy what you would do.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.