Excess comes to mind.
Donald Trump attacks excessively. And excess claims (“I will solve the Russian-Ukraine war in 24 hours”) shroud his foreign policy positions.
President Biden has yielded to the excessive demands of the Progressive Left. He sacrificed his Centrist bona fides. And at 81 years of age he should know when to step down. Excessive ambition cancels common sense.
The forces of these excesses result in 70% dreading a contest where one or the other will necessarily be the winner. And the losing side will perceive and cast the winner as the enemy. Perhaps we will even have to trudge through another contested election. Americans are at war with each other.
So what are the options? “None of the above” is not a person. It does not get sworn in. And Executive Orders by the person who wins damages our democracy while relegating the ostensible winner to a mere transitional figure. Government by Executive Order is, at best, temporary and often is delayed by legal challenges.
A Third Party option can be a corrective. Competition can be a telling lesson to those who insist on forgetting the complications that are endemic to a large and diverse country.
A Presidential election should not be confused with a sporting event. Winners face the hardships of winning. Assembling a talented leadership team. Making lasting progress on the domestic front by coalition building. Working through the difficulties of being the leader of free world alliances. Facing the daily need to resolve issues with a fractious Congress.
But even as the branded leaders of the two Parties leave much to be desired, challenges to the status quo are not easy. Institutional power is a collection of embedded interests. The institutional power of the Democrat Party, for example, has spent the last year hurling obstacles at the Third Party movement called No Labels. The organization deserves some of the criticism as it often sounds like an idea without a business plan.
No Labels ambition and pretense is that it represents Centrism. What is that? And can any of its retired politicians emerge as a successful leader/candidate? None has stepped up and Senator Joe Manchin just stepped down.
The only viable candidate for No Labels is Niki Haley. Yesterday’s loss makes clear: the Republican Party is the Trump Party.
Haley is a conservative; that will arguably limit her appeal to disaffected Democrats. Although, President Biden’s miserable approval ratings suggest a sizable number might vote for an Independent for the first time. Only the Democrats can act to move on from such a vulnerable incumbent.
Trump Republicans will attack her as a heretic but that will be nothing new. And Haley is clearly not a “snow flake”. And one thing Party operatives in both Parties agree on: we don’t want a viable Third Party.
But to No Labels she is the only viable choice because she has been in the game. She has become known. Most give her credit for building a good organization. And while she has her predictable talking points, she has on occasion thrown the script away on budgeting, the challenges to social security, and the importance of NATO.
Plus, she engages. She doesn’t hide behind a wall of functionaries or sycophantic rallies. Presidents must engage and persuade to build coalitions—neither Trump nor Biden can do that.
She has another trait that Presidents need: indefatigability. Breaking it down she has a high energy level that can be sustained over a number of barely surmountable hurdles. She has taken on the “fellas” and proven adept.
An overriding question for any No Labels wannabe is what is the Label? There will have to be one. Labels created by committees will never make the grade. Whoever is the No Labels candidate will have to be part entrepreneur; entrepreneurs do not assemble committees to point the way forward. There is not a formula in America for navigating the heavy waters of political intransigence. A committee created candidate and platform will have no chance of winning.
Yet, I find the context compelling. Times are too complicated and polarized to bend to the excesses of insistent minorities who have inordinate influence in both Parties. We need competition for the hearts and minds. We need a leader that can build majority support for new approaches. A winner without an established Party, will have no option but to try to build coalitions.
Most will say that as the votes are tallied in November one of the dominant parties will win. Probably. But if there is a viable Third Party, there will be a severe disruption in the normal attack, attack, attack which characterized the campaigns of 2016 and 2020. President Biden or former President Trump will know that divide and conquer, with a third party alternative, is strategically risky and tactically disruptive. Can you refuse to debate, for example. If all that competition can accomplish is to produce a healthier election, then No Labels will have a place in history. It’s showtime.
But, and it is infrequent that there is not a “but”, as I leave the cold shower, optimism is hard to sense. Vanity leads, leaders follow.
Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.
trudy wonder says
One thing I rarely hear talked about when discussing a third party run is the prospect of a spoiler event of a different kind. If neither major candidate receives the requisite 270 electoral votes on Election Day, say, due to a 3rd party candidate winning one or more states’ delegates, then the decision as to whom will fill the seat to the Presidency is thrown to the House of Representatives. In today’s world, that means our current Republican Congress would be the deciding faction. So unless the 3rd party candidate is popular enough to garner the necessary 270 votes him or herself, they indeed become a potential spoiler candidate leading to yet another Trump presidency.
More not his from the National Archives:
If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the Presidential election leaves the Electoral College process and moves to Congress.
The House of Representatives elects the President from the three (3) Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote and it is up to the individual States to determine how to vote. (Since the District of Columbia is not a State, it has no State delegation in the House and cannot vote). A candidate must receive at least 26 votes (a majority of the States) to be elected.
The Senate elects the Vice President from the two (2) Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. Each Senator casts one vote for Vice President. (Since the District of Columbia is has no Senators and is not represented in the vote). A candidate must receive at least 51 votes (a majority of Senators) to be elected.
If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House.
https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/faq#no270
Barbara Perry says
Trudy, my worry is the same that you have expressed here. I also am concerned that a major funding source for No Labels is Harlan Crow. So I am not very sure that No Labels is really a centrist group. Lots to keep watching and being concerned about until November.
Barbara Perry says
Trudy, well written. I share your concern.
Howard Freedlander says
Leadership is a precious commodity. So is authenticity. Hard to find. Hard to sustain. Thank you, Al, for a vital wake-up call.
Dick Gnospelius says
Al, Congratulations on writing this wonderful piece. I agree wholeheartedly with what you’ve written.
Pete Cerutti says
I like Niki Haley. But if she becomes a no label or independent candidate, it may help Trump or Biden. These two men have tremendous egos and the desire for power. America does not need 4 more years of Biden and Trump will be on a revenge tour. We need a patriot. My vote is for Niki. The fact that many congressmen are leaving office, tells the real story. Congress is broken.
Michael Pullen says
Donald Trump cannot win in the general election. He lost by 3 million votes in 2016 and 7 million votes in 2020. Twenty percent of Republican primary voters in South Carolina reported they would not vote for him if he is the Republican nominee. Trump can win if a third party candidate splits the anti-Trump vote.
In the 2000 presidential elections Al Gore lost Florida by 537 votes, Ralph Nader ran as a third party candidate and got 92,000 votes in Florida. Think about how American and world history might have been different, climate change, for example.
Trump is a danger to American democracy. The stakes are high, too high to gamble on another four years of chaos hurtling towards authoritarianism.
William Dalton says
This is another case of the writer having a death wish. History tells us a third party candidate has no chance. Do you really want Donald Trump as your President for another four years assuming he would leave office at the end of the term? Dictators have a way of staying on. A third party candidate would take votes away from Biden. We have learned that Maga voters will follow the SIRENE call of Trump over a cliff into disaster. The vote between Biden and Trump may be razor thin in the states that control the outcome in the electoral college. The desire for Haley is to my thinking a thinly disguised wish for the election of a Republican. She has been a mediocre candidate at best. Could she provide the leadership necessary without representation of either party in Congress. There are Republicans in Congress and they belong to Trump. Does anyone think they would suddenly become beholden to Haley? She would have no base of Congressional support. No use to worry about a viable third party candidate because it will not happen. Take the plunge. Admit it. You can say Hobson choice but Biden is the only realistic choice for survival of our Democracy. You may not agree with my theory but you must know my conclusion is correct.