The Iowa Republican voters have spoken, but we wasted our time waiting for results of the caucuses. We knew that a four-times-indicted man would win the caucus vote. We did not know whether DeSantis would finish behind Nikki Haley or the reverse, but we knew that DeSantis’ dream of bringing book-banning to the White House is not looking good. And we knew that Vivek Ramaswamy would head back to Cincinnati after the caucuses with a lighter wallet but without gaining an ounce of maturity.
So, the Iowa caucus is over. Is it a virtual certainty that Trump will be his party’s nominee? Trump has proven himself right—he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and still win elections. We also learned that with each passing day, Trump is becoming bolder. If you believe what Trump says, things like shooting drug dealers on sight, be afraid. Trump’s flippant remarks about being a dictator sound less flippant every day.
Despite his win, Trump is showing his vulnerabilities. Except in Georgia, where Trump-nominated Judge Aileen Cannon is dutifully repaying her debt to Trump by postponing Trump’s trial for the presidential documents heist until after election day, Trump’s legal problems are worsening. The possibility of having a convicted president win in November is increasing. And the probability of Trump pardoning himself, several allies, including the not yet indicted Andy “Handgun” Harris, and the “January 6 hostages,” will be a certainty should Trump win.
The alternative scenarios to Trump winning the nomination are few. They include Trump falling ill; an unlikely “aha” moment in which Trump cultists realize their leader is a godless, principleless grifter who really does not care about them; or Special Counsel Jack Smith getting Trump to jail sooner than now seems possible.
Thus, count on Trump being the party’s nominee. But what about Nikki Haley? There is a sliver of hope for the former U.N. Ambassador. Despite finishing third in Iowa, she remains likely to be the party’s nominee if it is not Trump. She will trounce DeSantis in New Hampshire.
Most of us would welcome Haley as the GOP nominee, but that is it. She has promised to pardon Trump; is squiggly on key issues like abortion; and is something of a wild card. What Nikki Haley would be president? A pragmatist? A right-wing conservative who would get to work on winning a second term on day one? Or something else? I do not want to find out. I already know who Biden is and like his policies.
Eventually, DeSantis will slink his way back to Florida. Fortunately for Floridians, DeSantis has damaged his popularity in his own state. Floridians now know they have nothing special. DeSantis is just a Trump-wanna-be who thought Trump’s days were over and sought to step into his shoes. The shoes were too big, and the minuscule DeSantis fell out.
The last Republican I will mention is the clown who described himself as “Super MAGA.” Vivek Ramaswamy, one of the smarmiest candidates for president ever. Ramaswamy had a moment in the sun before people started listening to him and his plans to ban affirmative action, abolish the FBI, Departments of Education and Justice, and even the Center for Disease Control. Ramaswamy, a self-identified genius, is a climate change denier who wants to repeal the federal safety net that keeps tens of millions of Americans from living in poverty. He also has promised to pardon Trump and the January 6 insurrectionists.
For a while, after Trump listened to Vivek’s fawning praise, the ex-president liked him. Trump might even have selected him as VP. Alas, last week Trump threw Ramaswamy under the bus after he saw a photo of Vivek with supporters wearing “Support Trump, Vote for Vivek” in Iowa. That outrage prompted Vivek being called a “fraud” and worse. Ramaswamy should have seen Trump’s attack coming. What kind of a Harvard man is so stupid as to trust Trump?
Vivek ended his campaign yesterday. One might have assumed he would catch the plane available to the Queen City, but instead Ramaswamy telephoned Donald Trump to endorse him. Why would he do this after Trump’s attack? My guess is that Vivek still dreams of being Trump’s VP. He should not hold his breath. He may also dream of a cabinet appointment that might keep him in the news and give him a chance to run for president again.
The most likely outcome for Ramaswamy is that he will soon fade from public memory. To the extent he is remembered, it will be a synonym for a toady. He kissed Trump’s behind. As they say, you reap what you sow.
How about the general election? It is too early to make projections, so I will not, other than to say that the dreaded Biden-Trump rematch is likely. Except it will not be a two-person fight—Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the Covid-nut, will be on several state ballots and steal votes from Biden. (Of course, if Trump persuades Kennedy to run as his VP, that could hurt Biden even more.)
We also have not seen signs of Jill Stein or Cornel West cancelling their candidacies. And what about “No Labels?” When I think of them, I think, “Monkey Wrench.” Why the rocket scientists behind this movement want to help Trump win the presidency is beyond me. My message to “No Labels” is “Stop! For the sake of Democracy, stop!”
Stay tuned. Yes, it will get worse but let us not give up hope. That is what Trump wants us to do. If you have no hope, if you have lost faith in democracy and constitutional government, and if you think people of color, LGBQT+ folks, and China are taking over America, stay home or vote for Trump. If you have hope and cherish democracy, get to work. All is not lost. Biden can win but he will not without your help.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.
Wilson Dean says
The lack of enthusiasm for Biden among his past supporters is understandable given the difficult world we live in. Inflation was (note the past tense) high and hard on the wallet, being more intense not only due to global supply problems but also because of the generous government support given the business and general population by Biden’s polices. For that he is blamed for inflation, but to many of us economists it was a preferable path than deep recession due to inadequate government assistance.
Immigration remains an on-going problem frustrating many of us because the problem never seems to end. Yet it is important to remember that much of the fault lies with Republican leaders. In realizing the constant bashing of people coming into this country helps build support within its base, they have no intent on trying to find a workable solution to the problem and instead only make absurd demands that have no chance of improving the situation. It is imperative to Trump to perpetuate immigration as a hot button issue that will fire up the MAGA crowd and to resist a solution that will reduce everyone’s frustration with the border problem (and thereby reduce his own support).
So the weariness of those who might logically support Biden makes sense, but we all need to take a giant step back and take a hard, critical look at the alternative. A second Trump presidency will accentuate and intensify the worst aspects of his first term—disrespect for those who disagree with him, retribution for those who have opposed him in the past, chaotic decisions on complex policies requiring careful consideration, uncooperative behavior even toward our country’s allies when we desperately need a well-coordinated global approach with our friends, a disregard for the rule of law as well as our American constitution, and a self-absorbed view of the world that puts his own aggrandizement above our American values.
Joe is looking better to me every day.
Paul Rybon says
Mr Dean’s comments about Democracy are a fraud. Any party who would toss an opposing candidate from the ballot doesn’t understand what Democracy is. This is simply about power by any means.
Mickey Terrone says
“Power by any means”? Biden and the Democrats? Trump is proclaiming his power as president includes immunity from any crimes he has commited (or will commit if reelected). Trump claims immunity from organizing and perpetrating the overthrow of democracy on January 6th, 2021. Trump claims the power of immunity even after having been convicted of attacking E. Jean Carroll and then defaming her. Trump believes he is above the law and promises to arrest political opponents if he is reelected. He plans to make his January 6th accomplices immune as well, just as he “pardoned” Bannon, Stone, Manafort, Flynn and others for their political crimes to support himself and undermine the rule of law in this country.
Any patriotic American who believes in our Constitution and our democratic traditions, regardless of your political affiliation, cannot support Trump’s fascist authoritarianism and still be an American patriot. Perhaps Mr. Rybon and other Trump supporters should visit the antifa American Cemetery that sits on the bluffs above Omaha Beach in Normandy, France or Arlington National. The men who gave their lives in Europe and in the Pacific to save democracy from authoritarian fascism would do the same again before they hand such unbridled power to one rich American thug who claims to be above the law himself.
From George Washington on down, true Americans have to be sickened by a thug like Trump. American military veterans who sacrificed in varying degrees to keep this country free for the past 200+ years cannot reasonably believe Trump will stand to protect the democracy they fought and sacrificed to protect.
Mr. Rybon’s baseless insinuation is a call for true Americans to call out Trump and his supporters to demand facts and honesty in their claims and reject Trump’s ugly authoritariamism. Fascism is extremism and the very antithesis of democracy with our traditions of freedom of religion, free speech and political compromise for which so many great people have given their last full measure of devotion. Let us not forget or ignore or dismiss them and their sacrifices to American democracy.