Assuming your friends are a politically diverse group, including liberals, moderates, and conservatives, if you ask about the 2024 election, you will get answers that reflect that diversity. The liberals may be hopeful but worried about President Biden, the conservatives anxious that their candidate will self-destruct before election day, and many moderates will admit they don’t know. Some of them will even answer they are not sure whether they will vote in November.
Regular readers of my columns know I consider Donald Trump so unfit a candidate for the presidency that I assume he will lose. That view embodies the hope that eventually, enough of us will see Trump and Biden for who they are and vote for Biden.
From responses I have received to previous columns, I sense that another condemnation of Trump from me will not sway anybody’s opinion. So, earlier this week I persuaded Spy Columnist Maria Grant, a Biden supporter, to sit down with me and talk about her thoughts on the 2024 election. Her answers were, to me, insightful, so much so that I asked her if I could share them in this week’s column. So, here goes. . .
Will Joe Biden and Kamala Harris be sworn in for a second term on January 20, 2025?
Yes. The election will be close, but they will prevail.
Polls show that Donald Trump with a higher approval rating than Joe Biden. Very concisely, why?
A lot of those polls came from the exit polls from the primary. If you look at the limited number of Republican voters that participated in those primaries, you have a very small, probably non-representative picture of these voters. My take-away from those polls is that the polls may not be reflective of the true situation.
In his state of the union address, President Biden reiterated the importance of American support for Ukraine. Will that help or hurt him in November?
That will help him. I thought he could have been stronger in his speech. It deserved more attention than he got in the speech. I also know that many Republicans support more aid for Ukraine.
The President also talked about the overturning of Roe v. Wade and reminded listeners that women are politically powerful. How central is the abortion issue to Biden’s campaign?
I think it is front and center. It is one the reason he will get voters under 40 to vote for him. He needs to continue stressing it as the campaign continues.
In your view, what issue is most important to Biden’s campaign?
His age. On Thursday, he showed vigor and wisdom. This contrasts, to me, the doddering, confused Trump. As the campaign continues, Biden needs to continue to show vigor and emphasize his experience, including his service as Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations committee and eight years as Obama’s vice president. I also note that Trump doesn’t know basic civics—things like how a bill becomes a law. Biden’s experience is a huge plus for his reelection bid.
Let’s talk about a few of issues polls indicate are voter concerns about President Biden. Is he too old to run?
In a perfect world, we would have a younger candidate. The question is moot now, I think. Biden and, 77-year-old Trump are running. So, we need to focus on which of them is more fit to be president. It is Biden.
Do you sense a lot of Democratic voters will stay home on election day?
Democratic turn-out will be strong. More Republicans will stay home or vote for an independent or Biden. As you know, Larry Hogan says he will not vote for Trump. As has Mitt Romney, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski, the Senator from Alaska. I also think more Haley voters will vote for Biden than Trump.
Some suggest President Biden should replace Kamala Harris on the Democratic ticket. Would you like to see her replaced?
No. Her performance has improved over the last few months. Also, replacing her now would risk alienating Blacks and other voters. He will stick with her. She is prepared to be president.
Will Harris on the ballot as vice president cost Biden the election?
No. She might even help the ticket. She has been effective on women’s issues.
Let’s turn to Donald Trump. I know you don’t like him, so let’s set that aside. How about the 91 felony counts pending against him? Why haven’t Republican voters fled from him?
His so-called base has dwindled. His hard-core base may still support him, but even some of those voters will leave him if he gets convicted of a felony before they vote. Just watch.
Polls indicate a majority of Republicans still believe Trump won the 2020 election. Does that surprise you?
Yes. Case after case showed no voter fraud. Where is the fraud?
The State of the Union address brought us a more energetic, combative Joe Biden than many of us expected. What will coming weeks and months show us in terms of Trump? Will Trump step up his game and become even more aggressive in attacking Biden’s record and his age?
Yes. A case in point is the reprehensible ad that came out on the day of the State of the Union Address. It showed Biden slipping on the stairs going into Air Force One on a split screen showing Kamala Harris laughing. Given who Trump is, and the more he realizes he is losing the election, the nastier he will become. We have not seen the worst yet.
Okay, now the hard question. On election night, 2024, who will win? And by how much?
Biden will win. If forced to guess, I think it could be 55-45, but it will probably be closer.
Do you agree with Maria? I would welcome hearing from you.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and, too infrequently, other topics. Maria Grant is a Commentator with The Spy and Dean’s spouse. She was principal-in-charge of the Federal Human Capital practice of an international consulting firm. While on the Eastern Shore, she focuses on writing, reading, gardening, piano, kayaking and nature.
Wilson Dean says
Maria has an astute understanding of the political world. My view is that Biden is not doing well in the polls because (1) he is the incumbent, so everything wrong is seen as his fault and (2) there is some very real dissent in the Democratic party (including me) over his allowing Israel to carry out its retaliation in such an indiscriminate manner (and who are currently voting “Uncommitted.”).
Yet when it comes time to mark that election ballot, I think most non-MAGA types will see it as a choice between “an old guy trying to do the best he can for the country” versus a “a hateful, convicted business fraud who tried to overthrow the government of the United States.” No contest.
Charles Barranco says
This entire thing with Trump is such a mockery of our constitution, our laws, decency and everything this country has ever stood for. What a travesty!
Let’s hope Maria is correct and Trump loses his base and the election.
John Dean says
Thanks for reading the piece. Maria is wise. I think she is right in her predictions.