Did you hear the pandemic is almost over? Several states already have opened, Maryland among them. Governor Hogan has opened Maryland. It is not inconceivable that every state might be “open” in the next few weeks.
Not so fast, says Dr. Fauci. Last Sunday he warned against the premature lifting of restrictions. On Meet the Press, Fauci commented: “You know that metaphor that people say, ‘If you’re going for a touchdown, don’t spike the ball at the five-yard line. Wait until you get into the end zone. We’re not in the end zone yet.”
What prompted Fauci to ruin the party? For one thing, Europe. Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary already have seen a sharp spike in infections. Italy and Germany are now “re-closing.”
Does Europe know something that we don’t? Is Governor Hogan’s action last week a mistake? Will we see a “re-closing” order in a month or so, something that would not only ruin the summer of those of us demanding a reopening but will result in unnecessary infections and deaths?
The answer to this question is not as obvious as some would have us believe. Many people now have both vaccines (around 38 million nationally; more than 11 percent of people in Maryland). Another sizable chunk of the population now has had the virus (more than 29.5 million people nationally, with more than 534,000 cases resulting in death). We are on our way to herd immunity.
Unfortunately, we are not there yet. And then we have three problems that may prove exceptionally difficult to solve. First is the wild card of “new variants” of the virus. The CDC reports: “Viruses constantly change through mutation, and new variants of a virus are expected to occur over time. Sometimes new variants emerge and disappear. Other times, new variants emerge and persist. Multiple variants of the virus that cause COVID-19 have been documented in the U.S. and globally during this pandemic.”
How worried should we be? Commenting on the South Africa and Brazil variants, both of which represent a risk to the U.S., the CDC comments: “These variants seem to spread more easily and quickly than other variants, which may lead to more cases of COVID-19. An increase in the number of cases will put more strain on healthcare resources, lead to more hospitalizations, and potentially more deaths.”
The CDC advises: “Rigorous and increased compliance with public health mitigation strategies, such as vaccination, physical distancing, use of masks, hand hygiene, and isolation and quarantine, is essential to limit the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19 and protect public health.”
One might argue that Governor Hogan did not get the CDC’s memo and perhaps is not taking the precautions he should to protect people of color at a time when they have a much higher risk of infection than whites.
Only time will tell whether Maryland should have remained closed, or partially closed. Given that governor’s order, let’s hope that the dangers that the CDC and others identified do not materialize. Let’s also hope that we all do what we can to be as safe as possible in the new environment. We need to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing as much as possible.
It’s going to be a challenging spring. We have reason to hope we are on the road to normalcy, but we won’t get there unless we go beyond what the government tells us to do and do what we need to.
Second, we have a stubborn group of people who, at least for the time being, refuse to get the vaccine. Perhaps most disturbing are reports that 41 percent of Republicans refuse to get the vaccine. Have they concluded they are immune? One Republican interviewed by CBS News answered, “This is a brand-new vaccine. I’m not going to jeopardize my health; I’m not going to put my kids in harm’s way. … I don’t want to play guinea pig.” How many people must get the vaccine and not die to convince this and other groups that the vaccine is safe?
More troubling is the question of what refusing the vaccine says about the civic responsibility of those who refuse to get it, thereby increasing the risk of infecting others.
Finally, do the numbers suggest that people of color are not getting the vaccine? CDC data, admittedly incomplete, suggests that among those now fully vaccinated, whites are overrepresented compared to non-white groups. That is disturbing data, regardless of what causes non-whites to be less likely to be vaccinated.
J.E. Dean of Oxford is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant. He is a former counsel to the House Committee on Education and Labor. For more than 30 years, he advised clients on federal education and social service policy.
Stephen Schaare says
Only with great reluctance do I respond to your essay. Housekeeping first, if I may. You stated that 41% of Republicans will refuse to be vaccinated. The article, or poll you cited and linked to said the number was 34%. No biggie. CBS the source?
More disturbing was your concern that a disproportionate percentage of whites were being vaccinated other than people of color.You then stated that you were not interested in the reason or “cause” for this.
How on Earth do you arrive at a remedy without knowing the cause? As President Biden might say “follow the science”. I say, at least be curious. As you well know, since the 4th day of this new administration, the word equality was replaced with the word “equity”. Racial, socioeconomic, environmental, equity will rule and take the forefront for the “traditionally underserved communities “. This message is driven home every day, again and again by press spokesperson Jen Psaki. Every possible priority is being given to vaccinate people of color-this is widely known here in MD. Gov. Hogan has just redoubled his efforts in this cause. Is it possible some people of color simply refuse the shot? Like the Republicans? Could be.
I have found that strong statements often elicit strong questions. Mr. Dean, may I presume you forfeited your appointment for being vaccinated to a member of the ” traditionally underserved population”? A.K.A., a “person of color”? Yes?
John Dean says
Thanks for looking into the source for the 41%. On the 41% number, please see: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/03/16/nation/coronavirus-vaccination-campaign-faces-challenges-polls-find-republicans-independents-leery-shots/
The Boston Globe reports: 41 percent of Republicans and 34 percent of independents leery of COVID-19 vaccine, poll finds
Please also see: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_020321/
Democrats are most eager to get the vaccine as soon as possible (72% when combined with those who already got the vaccine) – much more so than independents (51%) and Republicans (39%). More than 4 in 10 Republicans (42%) say they will avoid ever getting the vaccine if they can, which is significantly higher than the number of independents (25%) and Democrats (10%) who feel the same.
Please also see: https://news.yahoo.com/republicans-stubbornly-hesitant-covid-19-063648818.html
In a new AP-NORC survey, 42 percent of Republicans say they probably or definitely won’t get vaccinated, versus 17 percent of Democrats. A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour Marist poll found that 49 percent of Republican men and 47 percent of Donald Trump supporters said they would opt out if a vaccine was offered to them, versus 6 percent of Democratic men. A CBS News-YouGov survey released Sunday recorded 33 percent of Republicans saying they would not get a shot and another 20 percent undecided.
John Dean says
On the issue of the under-representation of people of color in getting the vaccine, I would suggest that considerable effort is underway in the Biden administration to determine why there is under-representation and to fix it. Part of it seems to be distrust of the vaccine based on past history of experiments being done with African Americans without their knowledge. Also, in some States, distribution centers have not been placed in areas convenient to African Americans and other poor people.
I believe Gov. Hogan has recognized that there is a problem and is addressing the problem. I hope he suceeds.
I am not going to answer your last question, which is known as an ad hominem attack.
Mavis Libby says
Mr. Dean…I’m sorry, but I find your articles exhausting. If it were up to most liberal Democrats we would be never move on from this pandemic. It’s called control! Governor Hogan still has a mask mandate, still requires social distancing etc. etc. And he’s not advocating reckless behavior. If he was a Democrat, you’d be applauding his brave actions. Instead, the typical response is “shocking and reckless”. You don’t have to leave your house if you don’t want to, but many of us do. I will still wear a mask in the appropriate places and social distant, but for god’s sake, let’s not kill what little we have left of the economy. Oh, and I find it hard to believe that 41% of republicans are refusing to be vaccinated. That’s just BS. Of course if the Washington Post says it, it must be true!
John Dean says
Thank you for reading the article. I believe all States should be following the CDC’s advice. Dr. Fauci (not the Washington Post) has opined that States are reopening too quickly. The recent actions of our governor fall into this category, in my view.
I hope that despite the partial reopening of Maryland that we will not see the spike in infections that has occurred in some other states.
Stephen Schaare says
Since the subject was Covid, did you know the Dems blocked a proposal to test the hordes of “immigrants” flooding the border for Covid? Your thoughts? No distractions, please.
Angela Rieck says
This is the hardest time to be cautious. We can see the finish line, we are so close, but you are right…we need to finish.
John Dean says
Angela, as always, thank you for being part of the discussion. As you might guess, I fully agree.
Charles Barranco says
Mr Dean,
Excellent Article! Well researched and packed with facts and documentation.
I always feel that I’ve learned from your interesting essays!
Thank You!
John Dean says
Thank you for your kind words. They are much appreciated. And thank you for reading the Talbot Spy.