How did Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear win reelection yesterday in a state that Trump won in 2020 by eight percent? The immediate answer is abortion. As Republicans nationally have taken credit for overturning Roe v. Wade, women, many of them Republicans, have said “not so fast.” Yesterday’s Democratic wins, which include approval of a referendum in Ohio protecting the right to choose and Virginia Governor and once-presidential hopeful Glenn Youngkin being denied Republican control of the Virginia House of Delegates and loss of control of the state’s Senate, means more. Proof is not yet available, but some votes that Republicans lost yesterday were 2020 Trump voters rejecting Trump and Trumpism.
Abortion has proven to be the potent issue for Democrats that many predicted when the Supreme Court overturned Roe in June 2022. Women are not keen on the likes of Donald Trump and his hand-picked Supreme Court justices telling them what they can and cannot do with their bodies. But I also sense a turning point on Trump himself. Even election-denying Trumpers are shaking their head as Trump’s business empire crumbles in a New York courtroom. Even Republicans that want to believe that Trump and his family did not engage in rampant fraud are disgusted by Trump calling prosecutors racists, lunatics, and deranged.
The New York civil case is likely to strip Trump of a key component of his psyche—that he is better and smarter than everybody because he is a self-calculated billionaire. Trump without his money and power is nothing more than a narcissistic loser. My guess is that will not play well among the Trump flock.
It is too early to reach conclusions about the 2023 Democratic election wins other than abortion is a losing issue for the GOP. But it is not too early to hope that yesterday’s GOP defeats will embolden Joe Biden and Trump’s Republican challengers to become bolder in attacking Trump.
Tonight, five Republicans, Haley, DeSantis, Christie, Scott, and uber-MAGA blowhard Vivek Ramaswamy, are debating in Miami. Don’t expect Ramaswamy to do anything other than to defend Trump, who Ramaswamy has promised to pardon if elected president. But will anyone other than Christie call out Trump for what he is—a would-be despot running on a platform of lies, hate, and fear?
If Biden persists in running for reelection, which appears increasingly likely, he needs to take on Trump more directly. It will not be easy. Trump has led himself into a corner where he now resembles a cornered rat. He will spit, kick, show his teeth, and yell in the hopes that Biden will cower, and Republicans will believe that he can still win. We should watch Biden closely to see if his campaign posture changes in light of yesterday’s elections.
The GOP itself is close to hopeless despite polls showing Biden to be unpopular because of his age. Until recently, Republicans have not spent much time thinking about who they support for president: A man facing 91 felony counts, including trying to retain the presidency through violence. If Trump continues to stumble, both legally and psychologically, Republicans may wake up and realize that they supported the wrong guy for too long. Unfortunately for the GOP but fortunately for the rest of us, it will be too late.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, birds, and other subjects.
Mickey Terrone says
Hi John. Once again, great incisive article. I’ll add that its clear after yesterday’s voting that American women are standing up for their individual freedom despite every effort by the Republican Party (and SCOTUS) to control them. With the new election-denying GOP House Speaker, the mini-Goebbels, Mike Johnson thoroughly committed to any possibility of any woman ever getting a legal abortion and willing to criminalize women and their health care providers for exercising their right to choose, he and his GOP House of Representatives’ razor thin majority is in dire jeopardy.
Andy Beshear won the Kentucky governorship by 5,000 votes in 2019. Yesterday, he won reelection by 70,000 votes. Governor Youngkin of Virginia just lost both the state House and Senate because of his abortion stance and deflated Critical Race Theory balloon from 2020. Ohio convincingly voted to enshrine womens right to choose in their conservative state constitution.
That Republicans oppose funding Ukraine and NATO’s effort to save democracy in Europe from the menace of Putin the New Stalin, even as they support Trump who has repeatedly sung the praises of Putin, Kim Jong Un, Orban and other horrendous dictators as he sought to undermine democracy worldwide, clarifies their degenerate foreign policy positions.
Its remarkable that Democrats and mainstream media spend so much time wringing their hands about Biden’s age and lack of popularity when his likely opponent, just 3 years his junior, has already announced he will suspend the US Constitution to arrest political opponents and pardon himself for crimes for which he had been convicted. All the while, he has been bragging about how he singlehandedly managed to bring down Roe vs Wade through his SCOTUS appointments.
Biden needs to stay the course in the knowledge that anyone who may replace him (if he decides to step away) will have their own flaws and shortcomings that opponents will seize upon. The Biden record of record low unemployment, job growth, infrastructure rebuilding, wage growth, equal rights and protection of minorities (like women, LGBTQ, religious minorities, etc), environmental protection, some degree of assault rifle gun control, fair immigration policy and reasonably taxing the biggest corporations will all inure to Biden’s benefit when voters go to the polls in November, 2024. If inflation and interest rates are under better control by then, which they should be, the entirety of the Republican Party will be vulnerable to collapse, as it should be. The contrasts between Biden and Trump will be enormous, except for the blindest of the blind cultists.
And of course, we’ll be certain to have several more years to endure Trump’s howling about how the 2024 election was also rigged against him. This time, my view is that he will try to militarize his “base” to take to the streets to “Stop the Steal II”. Trump will do anything to keep himself out of jail, including bring down our American democratic republic so long as Trumpism lives.
John Dean says
Mickey, as always a great comment with lots of information. Thank you for it.
David Lloyd says
Two outstanding comments here. Can’t add anything except YES!!! Yesterday was a very good day for America’s DEMOCRACY!!!!!
Barbara Denton says
It is wonderful to see your TDS is still alive and well. The Republicans are not stating the facts on the abortion issue and the Democrats are lying about it. Republicans know this is a state issue. There should never be a special election on ballot issues statewide in an off year election. Outside donors spent $10,000,000 to pass the abortion amendment in Ohio. Since it was coupled with making marijuana legal of course it was going to pass. The lawsuit in NY is a sham. Ms. James ran on prosecuting President Trump. She could not get a prosecutor to take this case on a legal basis as it is a sham so she went to civil court. This is so rotten it will be thrown out at the appellate level. The other 3 lawsuits are also lawfare brought to keep Donald Trump from running. Too bad it is backfiring. Every lawsuit brought more support for President Trump. Joe Biden is a treasonous crook and in the near future the press will no longer be able to protect him and the rest of his criminal family. The rat that is going to be cornered is Joe Biden. The only way if he lives long enough Joe Biden will win in 2024 is by the same cheating he did in 2020.
Jonathan Chet Burgertons says
LOL
Wilson Dean says
Excellent article. You have provided a very perceptive view of the Republican dilemma in sticking with Trump even as his credibility crumbles in the face of his fraud and felony court cases. In spite of recent polls favoring Trump over Biden in tossup states, I find it likely that when confronted with another Biden v. Trump match, the majority will not want a repeat of the drama-filled Trump years and will re-elect Biden.
Were Republicans to suddenly realize Trump will truly be the loser, Nikki Haley would be a formidable opponent against Biden. I personally dislike her opportunistic propensity for stretching the truth and changing her positions depending on her audience, but from a purely political standpoint her poise, intelligence, relative youth, and gender would all combine to accentuate the age factor that is working against Biden. Personally I am hopeful that JE Dean is correct that Republicans will in all probability only recognize this much too late, resulting in a Biden victory in 2024.