Eastern Shore Land Conservancy

Climate Study Predicts Heavier Rains, Deeper Floodwaters on Eastern Shore

March 14, 2020 by Bay Journal

Climate change will fuel heavier downpours and deeper floodwaters on Maryland’s Eastern Shore, according to one of the first detailed looks at changing rainfall patterns at the local level in the mid-Atlantic.

The new report, a collaboration between the University of Maryland and Eastern Shore Land Conservancy, estimates rainfall totals and intensity for five towns on the Mid and Upper shores. It predicts that by the 2040s, a 100-year storm will dump an additional 0.5-inch to 1.5-inches of rainfall over 24 hours, depending on the location.

That might not sound like much of a difference. But when it comes to planning for new roads, drainage ditches and other types of infrastructure, it is, said Jim Bass, manager of the conservancy’s coastal resilience program.

Jim Bass, of the Eastern Shore Land Conservancy’s coastal resilience program, stands in the rain at the conservancy’s office in Easton, MD. He said that the rural towns represented in a new Eastern Shore study face a bigger challenge, than most because their public works staffs and budgets are smaller than most of their counterparts. Photo by Dave Harp/Bay Journal News Service

“This was a great opportunity to bring some specificity to this phenomenon that everyone agrees is going on,” he said. “You can’t plan for what you don’t know.”

Many coastal communities across the country are struggling to get ready for rising seas, greater storm frequency and other climate-related impacts. The rural towns represented in the Eastern Shore study face a bigger challenge, Bass said, because their public works staffs and budgets are smaller than most of their counterparts.

In anticipation, his organization formed the Eastern Shore Climate Adaptation Partnership in 2016. The network’s six participating counties and three municipalities work to share costs and resources as they plan for climate change. Their goal, according to the partnership’s website, is to create “America’s Most Resilient Region.”

The rainfall study, funded by a $60,000 grant from the New York-based Rauch Foundation, brings a level of scientific understanding to those communities that many larger cities still don’t have, its backers say.

Climate scientists typically use broad brush strokes when predicting rainfall patterns decades into the future, said Kaye Brubaker, a University of Maryland researcher who co-authored the report. Even with the aid of supercomputers, they can only pin down results to square-shaped blobs with boundary lines stretching more than 30 miles apart.

Brubaker and her team took just such information from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program and used a statistical process called “downscaling” to make forecasts at a more-precise scale.

“It’s almost like zooming in onto an image,” she said. “As you zoom out, you see very coarse pixels, and when you zoom in the pixels get finer and finer.”

The study forecasts rainfall for the period between 2041 and 2070, assuming a scenario in which relatively little is done to combat global greenhouse gas emissions. For a 100-year storm — the sort with a 1% chance of occurring during any given year — the study foresees the following rainfall totals over a 24-hour period:

• Elkton: 9.3 inches (1.6 inches greater than the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration currently charts for such storms in that community)
• Denton: 9.9 inches (1.2 inches greater)
• Cambridge: 10.1 inches (1 inch greater)
• Easton: 10 inches (1 inch greater)
• Centreville: 9.2 inches (0.5-inch greater)

Brubaker said the labels used to describe storms can be misleading. A 100-year storm can strike more than once every 100 years; to say it only has a 1% chance of arising per year is better, but it’s still possible for such ferocious storms to pop up once every few years or even within days of each other.

“It’s like you’re rolling a 100-sided die. Your probability of coming up with a 1 is one in 100. But there is a possibility that you could roll it two times in a row and a 1 would come up,” Brubaker said.

Those labels, though, are critical for engineers trying to decide how high to build bridges and how wide to dig stormwater ponds. If the calculations for a newly constructed highway don’t account for the shifting definition of a 100-year storm, it may be in danger of flooding more often in the future, Brubaker said.

“If the rain falls slowly, it can trickle off somewhere,” she said. But “if the rain falls intensely very fast, where’s it going to go? It’s going to pile up in your pipes and on your street.”

Another symptom of climate change — rising seas — could complicate things for local planners, Brubaker said. If coastal areas become inundated by higher tides, it will be more difficult for rainfall-driven flooding to drain away.

Brian Lightner, the zoning administrator for Cecil County in the state’s northeast corner, said the new rainfall totals will help his department develop even more localized computer models, which he hopes to use to plan stormwater projects.

“Local governments are always thinking about where we can do stormwater retrofits,” he said. “With our flood vulnerabilities being predicted, [we’ll be] looking where we can try to do some restoration to reduce some of that impact.”

Climate scientists generally agree that rainfall will continue increasing in the Chesapeake Bay region, but projections at the local level have only begun to trickle in. The Maryland Commission on Climate Change said in a 2008 report, for example, that winter rainfall amounts could increase up to 12% by 2090, but that information applied statewide.

A 2015 analysis compiled for the District of Columbia’s Department of Energy and Environment looked at a variety of storm scenarios, finding greater intensity and frequency with each. For instance, it showed that the number of days per year with 1 inch of rainfall would increase from an average of 10 to 13 by the 2080s.

In Virginia Beach, a 2018 study suggested that 100-year storms would typically produce 13.3 inches of rainfall over the span of 24 hours by 2075, up from the historical average of 9.4 inches. Such results prompted the report’s author, the Dewberry consulting firm, to recommend that the city increase rainfall intensities by 20% in its design calculations.

In its report, the Eastern Shore Land Conservancy lays out several policy recommendations of its own, emphasizing the use of “green infrastructure,” such as rain gardens and wetlands, to absorb additional water.

It is the second climate change report produced by the organization in as many years. Its sea-level rise study last year estimated a 6-foot increase on the Shore, a swell that would put nearly 6,000 buildings at risk of becoming flooded.

Brubaker said that her use of a higher-emissions scenario was a feature of the study, not a fault. It is better to plan for a worse scenario and wind up with dry roads than to hope for the best and end up under water, she said.

“I think we all need to pay attention to what we’re doing to the planet,” she added. “This [analysis] is a hint of what global-scale change might be bringing to our neighborhood.”

By Jeremy Cox

ESLC Releases Report on Climate Change & Severe Rainfall Impacts

February 4, 2020 by Eastern Shore Land Conservancy

There is a broad trend of heavier, more frequent rainfall across the county with significant impact on communities. Maryland’s Eastern Shore is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of these events, and a study released by Eastern Shore Land Conservancy (ESLC) finds that communities should expect the trend to continue in the coming decades.

The study can be accessed at www.eslc.org/people.

“We are very excited for the release of the extreme precipitation study,” says Jim Bass, ESLC’s Coastal Resilience Program Manager. “The Eastern Shore is going to be living with a lot more water in the future – both from sea level rise and from increased rainfall. This report helps us plan for those future conditions and be informed about the increased risk of flooding.”

Titled “Preparing for Increases in Extreme Precipitation Events in Local Planning and Policy on Maryland’s Eastern Shore” the study assists local governments in planning for the impacts of “extreme precipitation” or abnormally high rainfall on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.

The study was written on behalf of Eastern Shore Climate Adaptation Partnership (ESCAP) – a regional workgroup of local government staff, partners from the State of Maryland, academic institutions, and nonprofits. The ESCAP assists communities in reducing climate vulnerabilities and risks; collects and shares information among communities and decision makers; and educates members, residents, and elected leaders on risks and adaptation strategies. It also serves to raise the visibility and voice of the Eastern Shore and rural regions in conversations about adaptation and resilience.

Research for this project was conducted by scientists at the University of Maryland. Dr. Kaye Brubaker, director of the Maryland Water Resources Research Center, led a team who analyzed multiple climate projections for our region to develop a detailed look at how more precipitation will fall faster and more regularly in the future. ESLC also developed policy recommendations for local governments to adopt in their planning and legislative processes which will help mitigate flooding and manage increased stormwater volume.

Other golden nuggets from the report include location trends which demonstrate intensifying rainfall most significantly in the southern part of the Eastern Shore region, recommendations on stormwater infrastructure upgrades, and the fact that this report applies to multiple sectors including stormwater, agriculture, transportation, public safety, and environment/water quality.

“The results of this report show that climate change is bringing more rain to the Eastern Shore. We also know that sea levels will be roughly two feet higher by 2050 and six feet higher by 2100. Taken together, increased precipitation plus sea level rise means a significant increase in future flood risk across the region. It is imperative that we take steps today to mitigate and adapt to the flood risks projected for the future,” says Jim Bass.

For speaking opportunities, interviews, copies of the report, or more info about this study, ESCAP or ESLC’s coastal resilience program, please contact ESLC Coastal Resilience Program Manager, Jim Bass at jbass@eslc.org or 410.690.4603 x156

Eastern Shore Land Conservancy
Eastern Shore Land Conservancy (ESLC) is a 501(c)3 nonprofit land conservation organization committed to preserving and sustaining the vibrant communities of the Eastern Shore and the lands and waters that connect them. More at www.eslc.org.

What Do We Comprehend? By Al Sikes (Part Five)

January 6, 2020 by Al Sikes

One of my obligatory visits after becoming Chairman of the Federal Communications Commission was to Alaskan villages that were being transformed by communications technology. I can remember going into a very remote village store and seeing videocassette movies straight from Hollywood. More than just communications was being transformed.

Alaska’s subsistence farmers and fishermen were in nature’s loop—overfish or hunt or plant and nature’s bounty will disappear. The next generation was losing its connection.

In the “lower 48”, as Alaskans say, most people lost their organic connection to nature decades ago. The intersecting lines of production, storage, transportation and distribution and their effect on nature is barely understood.

Yet, if we turn to our human-made infrastructure, the story is different. In 2018 Gallup reported that, “Infrastructure spending has bipartisan support: in addition to winning broad national support, infrastructure renewal sparked majority support from both major parties last year.”

As this political consensus translates into another trillion dollar package, can we afford to compartmentalize the importance of nature’s infrastructure? What about the disappearance of pollinators and birds? When we abolish natural settings they disappear. And what happens when the plant life which helps to balance atmospheric gasses is largely replaced by the plow, chemicals or some version of concrete or hard metals?

Ultimately, the integrity of nature is often a neighborhood question. Governments can seek to regulate, but day-to-day attitudes are extremely important. And, they ultimately translate into who we elect.

One easy attitude test is litter. Survey the rights-of-way before and after the “Do Not Litter” signs for attitude. And when you are driving or walking along streams, creeks, ditches and the like do you see tree rows? Trees are a first line defense against pollutants while providing an important CO2 sink and shade for the waterway. And, take a look at the larger water basin. Basins are plant nurseries. Do they exist or are they constrained by some form of engineered compaction?

Collectively we watched as the Cuyahoga River southeast of Cleveland actually caught fire. Yes, human actions or inactions caused water to burn. We learned causality in high school chemistry as chemical elements were altered. I recall guys loved to cause minor explosions.

If attitude and individual approaches toward how we live our lives are important, our concerted action can be pivotal.

Ducks Unlimited (DU) is a good example of neighborhood attitudes writ large. It is also proof that individuals sharing a common goal can have an enormous impact on nature.

A New York Times article in September of 2018, The Crisis for Birds Is a Crisis for Us All began its review of a comprehensive study by scientists covering the United States and Canada with this preface: “Nearly one-third of the wild birds in the United States and Canada have vanished since 1970, a staggering loss that suggests the very fabric of North America’s ecosystem is unraveling.”

The study found an important outlier: “Fortunately, it’s not all bad news. Populations of North American ducks and geese have grown by 56 percent since 1970, according to the Science paper, and this is not an accident. During the first half of the 20th century, hunters became deeply concerned about declines in duck populations every bit as severe as those we’re witnessing among common songbirds today. The United States and Canada responded with laws to protect wetlands and collaborated with Mexico to safeguard migrating waterfowl. Conservation management became increasingly driven by science. Private philanthropy, especially by Ducks Unlimited, generated significant financial support for wetlands acquisitions. Millions of additional acres of wetlands were restored and protected by the federal and state governments. The result: Waterfowl populations are booming today.”

DU has protected or restored 14 million acres of wetland. And DU Canada reports: “Canada’s wetlands store approximately 150 billion tons of carbon. That’s equivalent to the emissions of roughly six billion cars over 20 years.”

If we turn to farmland use it is now mostly under the corporate plow, owned by entities seeking to maximize return. Iowa State University Farmland Value Survey reports a 346% increase in cost per acre since 1981. It further noted that the investors “..…favor conventional agriculture—the kind that uses the agro-chemicals, mono-cropping, and extensive tilling that continue to degrade American farmland. For financial investors, commodity crops are king, and it’s hard to imagine that they will change their minds anytime soon.”

As I turn back to my own neighborhood, the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay, I am encouraged by the leadership of ShoreRivers, the Eastern Shore Land Conservancy and Chesapeake Wildlife Heritage and the splendid work they are doing to restore and protect. Among other initiatives, they work with the farm community to filter runoff, create buffers and convert farmland to natural habitats.

Nature’s gifts are expressed in many ways. Poets, lyricists, and, most especially visual artists enliven our understanding and imagination. One way to appreciate nature is to understand it the way a subsistence forager in Alaska must.

After-note: It is not possible to assess the challenges to biodiversity and climate with a column or two. I have reached this point by pairing what I know through personal experience with what is projected or recommended by others. The next columns will be even more specific.

A healthy earth requires us to both comprehend our role and take action. As to comprehension, let me suggest: The Creation: An Appeal to Save Life on Earth, by E.O. Wilson.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.

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