America celebrated another birthday last week, but as I watched the fireworks I wondered, is this the next to last one? I sense our political system may be at a breaking point. If the 2024 election proves to be the disaster it is shaping up to be, our constitutional democracy might not be around on July 4, 2025.
The leading 2024 presidential candidates from each party are individuals who a majority of us do not want to run. One is widely seen as too old to run. The other does not support democracy and is well on his way to being a convicted felon. The election of either Joe Biden or Donald Trump could throw the country into a political crisis that could become the day American democracy died.
Joe Biden, of course is a friend of democracy. The problem with his election is that he might not survive another four years in office. His death or incapacity could trigger another Trump attempt to seize power by force, especially if the incredibly unpopular Kamala Harris becomes president.
The problem of a Trump win in 2024 is that Trump is already promising to “take our country back,” and deliver retribution to the “thugs” who are prosecuting him. Plus, he evidences increasing signs of decline if not outright insanity.
Trump is also too old to run for president—we just do not talk about it because there are so many other reasons why his 2024 candidacy is a threat to our future. He will be 78 years old on election day 2024.
So, are we doomed or is there a way out of the pending crisis? No and yes. We will be fine if both candidates drop their candidacies. For now, that looks unlikely, but it could and should happen.
I have a theory that Joe Biden’s decision to seek a second term resulted from his conclusion that Trump remains a potent political force and could regain the White House. Biden mistakenly believes that he is the best candidate to defeat Trump. After all, he did it before. Biden may also believe that if he were not running, the Democratic party would erupt into a slugfest between moderates and progressives that would facilitate Trump winning the election.
Biden could be right about the risk of a brutal Democratic party primary season, but he does not seem to understand how unpopular he is becoming. Every time the President misspeaks, stumbles on a stage, or appears tired, more voters conclude not only that he is too old to run for president, but that he is not functioning as president today.
What could prompt Biden to rethink his decision to seek a second term? The answer is if Trump either dropped out of the race or is defeated in the Republican primaries.
To date, Trump is holding onto his base. I find it difficult to believe that anyone thinks Trump is “perfectly innocent” or is willing to take the risk of a convicted felon being elected president. Yet the numbers, so far, do not lie.
Trump is not invulnerable. Last weekend I watched the video of Trump’s speech in Council Bluffs, Iowa. It was pathetic. Trump rallied Iowans by suggesting that Democrats seek to destroy Iowa by promoting electric cars (which do not need ethanol). He also focused on “the border” and, after calling Democrats “either evil or stupid” for promoting an open border, told the audience how he pressured Mexico into placing 28,000 troops on the border to stop illegal immigration.
The speech, which included a reference to America going to hell, a claim that Biden is the most corrupt president in history, and that he would fix everything, was reminiscent of a Hitler speech from the 1930s. Trump uses fear and promotes hate to convince voters to support him.
Somehow, somewhere, somebody needs to take Trump down. The justice system may do it, but Trump can also be defeated if the Republican party finally rejects him.
Could former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie be the candidate who makes that happen—the candidate who finally makes Republicans see Trump as the toxic cancer that he is?
In recent weeks I have been encouraged—let me say excited—by Christie’s willingness to call Trump out. Christie has been outspoken in saying that it is time for Republicans to take a stand against Trump and recognize that he is the narcissistic grifter who tried to retain the presidency by force and lies in 2021.
The first GOP presidential debate is scheduled for August 23rd. Governor Christie will qualify for it by securing the requisite number of campaign donors. Will Trump participate? Given his congenital over-confidence, Trump might be persuaded to say yes. Christie expects Trump to be there and is looking forward to the chance to battle Trump directly.
If Chris Christie exposes Trump in a way that has not happened to date, Trump could decide to drop out of the race. That might clear the way for President Biden to change his mind about running in 2024. If that happens, we might get a younger, more energetic Democrat as the party’s nominee, and America might get to celebrate another birthday in 2025.
Naïve? Maybe, but there has to be a way out of this mess. I refuse to quit looking for it.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.
Anne Stalfort says
Malarkey! I’m voting enthusiastically for Biden/Harris!
John Dean says
Thanks for reading the piece.
If Biden runs, I will also be voting for him. Despite my concerns about his age and my lack of confidence in the VP, he is better than any Republican.
Jair Devereaux says
What specifically makes you have a lack of confidence in Kamala. She is intelligent, well rounded, and has a great command of her role. She is different than Joe in her own right.
Sue Regier says
As am I, Anne. Anyone, even a 40 year old, could drop dead in office. Biden is healthy and smart and he has incredibly smart people in his administration. He has worked hard to bring good jobs and much needed infrastructure to our country. Biden brought us back from the disaster of the trump years and the pandemic, and helped America be respected again by world leaders. Stop with the “too old” garbage and look at all that has been accomplished in less than three years.
Anne Stalfort says
Agree! and I love Kamala Harris!
Rick Megahan says
Mr. Dean;
The only threat to democracy in the 2024 election will be if Donald Trump is prevented from running by other than electoral means. Your preference for for the tactic of lawfare threatens both sides because, if successful, will be a road map for taking out leftist Democrats in the future.
Wilson Dean says
I strongly agree with your premise that the country would be better off if both Biden and Trump do not run for the presidency in 2024.
A Trump victory in 2024 would ensure the destruction of our democracy, as he would be unlikely to repeat the same self-inflicted wounds that led to a few members of his own government restricting his dictatorial aspirations in his first term. Specifically, he would only allow people in his Administration whose single purpose would be to facilitate whatever his incoherent but essentially white nationalist impulses demanded. He would be further aided in Congress by a spineless Republican Party that essentially has left its conservative principles behind and without question would support his every whim. Given a Supreme Court that has exhibited a willingness to ignore the Constitution in furthering the causes of right wing groups and the religiously bigoted who support Trump, American democracy would quickly and likely irrevocably be destroyed.
Only if Trump were to be the Republican nominee would a Biden run be advisable. Biden was not my first choice to be the Democratic nominee in 2020, but like many others, I saw him as a force of stability in what could have eroded into a Centrist vs. Progressive battle within the party. The same could happen in 2024 if Trump won the Republican nomination and Biden were to bow out. For that reason, I would prefer to see Biden run in 2024 if Trump runs, and then allow the Democrats negotiate their future leadership during his tenure as President.
In the end, it would be preferable to see someone like Christie take the Republican nomination. In his outright denunciation of Trump, he could redirect the Republicans to a world of focusing on substance, not submission to a wannabe dictator. As for the Democrats, Biden could then step aside, creating an open field where some of its younger and energetic leaders could offer up a fresh vision of where our country should go.
Jair Devereaux says
Christie is a bully as well. BridgeGate. The Republican Party candidates have become full extremist. At present, I think Biden is the best choice for a few reason, which I think is very important.
From a foreign policy perspective we are in a good place in respect to Ukraine and Russia. We have rallied our allies at a very important when consistently is important and when we do have to constant message from the Republican Party.
Legislatively, we has pass a number for bills that impact infrastructure, manufacturing, mental health, 11MM jobs, 750MM manufacturing jobs.
Uniting and international collation of countries and investing in America with results. Why would you question that.
John Dean says
Thank you for your comment and reading the piece.
I agree with your references to positive accomplishments of the Biden administration. I don’t doubt them. What worries me is whether the President can continue to lead effectively for four years starting January 20, 2025. I don’t think he can, which is why I think someone else should be the Democrats’ nominee.
As you read, I also think Trump is too old. Also, the list of negatives for Trump is quite long. I want him off the political stage.
In any case, thank you for reading the piece. I very much appreciate it.
Jan Neverdahl k says
I totally agree with you. I think a younger, charismatic democratic candidate should run. I pray that something will keep Trump from running, but he’s getting the poll numbers and lots of money. I live in Alabama and it’s amazing how people here totally disregard his criminal behavior and attacks on democracy. I was depressed and angry for four years while Trump was in office. Can’t go through that again. This is the first time I’ve read any of your articles, and I really like what you had to say.