In a recent Talbot Spy commentary, I wrote that in the 2022 Congressional elections, pro-choice advocates who were angry over the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, channeled their anger into get-out-the-vote (GOTV) initiatives.
I also wrote a key element of those GOTV initiatives was messaging repeated early and often by Democratic congressional candidates: many Republicans oppose abortions anywhere and at any stage of a pregnancy. The goal was to energize and mobilize pro-choice voters, especially, but not limited to independents and women, to vote for Democratic candidates.
This messaging strategy worked well in the election cycle 2022.
It may work again in the 2024 election cycle based on recent “off year” election results in two red states — Ohio and Kentucky and in one purple state – Virginia.
In a statewide referendum in Ohio, more than 56% of voters approved a grassroots initiated measure to add the right to abortions into the state constitution.
In Virginia, Democrats won back full control of the state legislature after Republicans led by Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin campaigned on the promise of a “sensible limit” that would ban most abortions past 15 weeks of pregnancy, a measure Democratic candidates said was an extremist “agenda”.
In Kentucky, voters reelected a Democratic governor over an anti-abortion Republican opponent who had won statewide previously as a candidate for Attorney General.
Democratic messaging strategy on abortion rights may not work again in 2024 based on the results of a special election last week in Utah to fill a vacated congressional seat.
In that election, the Democratic candidate (a moderate state senator) said her Republican opponent’s position on abortion rights was “too extreme.” The Republican candidate responded to her opponent’s comment by not responding to it. In fact, she completely ignored it. She explained her decision to a local media outlet thusly: “I’ve avoided a lot of the social issues and red meat issues that people get wound up about.”
Instead, the Republican candidate focused on issues that she believed would resonate with a majority of voters in the congressional district. Those issues included securing America’s borders, addressing deficit spending at the federal level, and taming inflation. She also focused on three other issues she believed were of particular importance to voters in the district: less federal control over private land use, less federal control over natural resources, and keeping a local military base open.
The Republican candidate’s unconventional and risky messaging strategy worked.
Despite a pre-election poll forecasting a close outcome in this special election, the Republican candidate got 57% of the votes cast, the Democratic candidate got 34% of the votes cast and 9% of votes cast went to third party or independent unaffiliated candidates.
Going forward a “silence is golden” messaging strategy used by this Republican candidate on abortion rights should be of great interest to both Democratic and Republican campaign strategists.
Both need to heed the timeless advice of Eric Hoffer, who once said “In a world of change, the learners shall inherit the future, while the learned shall find themselves perfectly suited for a world that no longer exists.”
David Reel is a public affairs/public relations consultant who serves as a trusted advisor on strategy, advocacy, and media matters who lives in Easton.
Mickey Terrone says
The GOP cannot and will not back away from its stand against abortion rights for women. There miles of videotape video of Trump and others bragging about packing SCOTUS adequately to kill Roe and also minimize or end abortion rights at the state level where GOP representation dominates. The new evangelical Speaker of the House of Representatives proudly proclaims the GOP position.
Nevermind the reality that there is no evidence that conservative, white GOP evangelicals don’t get abortions when unplanned or accidental pregnancies occur in their families. These people hypocritically hold others to standards they themselves likely don’t hold themselves and each other. One reason statewide abortion rights constitutional referendums appear to gain so much traction with mamy conservative, white women, is that they too seem to know and understand the hypocrisy of the GOP position and tacitly acknowledge their own empathy, sympathy and/or perghaps even personal experience with their own, their friends or family members’ abortions. They may also understand the political threats to their rights as women in American society.
Thus, I seriously doubt GOP candidates will be able to play comatose or possum with this issue in 2024 at the state or national level. Perhaps this type of evangelical religious fanaticism will be curtailed by strong, unmistakably clear voter response in 2024 for womens liberty by American women of all religious, political and ethnic backgrounds.
Donald Singleton says
The Republicans are the dog which caught the car. Unfortunately they caught it by the front wheel and were run over. Now it only remains for the Democrats in the car to back over these hypocrites.
Dan Richardson says
Life, the fundamental human right, without which no other rights exist.
Michael Pullen says
Reducing the outcome of voters’ disapproval of Republican candidates to “Democratic messaging” is a disservice to the will of the majority of Americans.
This is not a “messaging” issue, rather it’s about individual freedom and control of one’s own body. It reflects the Republican view that government has the right to interfere with and intervene in one of the most personal and difficult decisions a person may make.
The outcome wasn’t ordained by “messaging” it resulted from Republican policies of big government interfering in people’s lives and depriving them of personal freedoms. Voter’s know which political party represents the will of the majority and elections reflect that.
Michael Davis says
The candiate in Utah who won wants less federal this, less federa that, less federal spending… but, oh, keep our military base open. The intellectual dishonesty of Republicans would be funny if it were so dangerous.
Michael Davis says
The candiate in Utah who won wants less federal this, less federa that, less federal spending… but, oh, keep our military base open. Apparentlu the voters did not notice some Hypocrisy there.
Robin G. Stricoff says
Women will not put up with a “silence is golden” approach to reproductive freedom and health. Voters in recent elections have made their positions clear; Women have the right to make their own healthcare decisions including the right to abortion without government interference. Being silent, disingenuous or flip- flopping on such an important issue is strategically weak and should not be tolerated by any voter- regardless of their position on abortion.