The scenes were depressingly reminiscent of April 1975 when Saigon fell. American transport helicopters flew above a city descending into chaos as the enemy invaded, largely unopposed. Terrified nationals feared death from insurgents drunk with the excitement of victory. Smoke rose from the American embassy as documents and computers were burned.
It looked like Vietnam 2.0, a repeat of the embarrassing defeat for a country that once bragged that it had never lost a war. It looked like Vietnam because, in large measure, our assessment of what would happen when U.S. troops left was wrong. Depending on your perspective, the U.S. should never have left or should have figured out a way to evacuate without suffering humiliation, embarrassment and, more importantly, the loss of nationals who had aided in the now-abandoned U.S. mission.
The Kabul evacuation will be complete in a week or so, if not sooner. What will persist is something else that will take us back to the 1970s—self-doubt, finger pointing, and political accountability. All those things in the 1970s, arguably made the U.S. stronger. Our national arrogance was blunted, and those responsible for expanding the war and lying about it were held accountable. Will the 2020s be similar?
Since President Biden’s announcement in May that he would withdraw all troops by September 11, many observers have suggested that the timetable was unrealistic. Reports also suggest that when the President accelerated the timetable, he did so against the advice of senior military advisors. That report appears to be accurate and, with time, will likely be verified.
So, is the story of the end of the 20-year war the story of a presidential mistake? It’s not that simple. Although, with the benefit of hindsight, Biden appears to have miscalculated the logistics of the evacuation, it is less clear that he deserves to be blamed for the whole debacle. Biden’s two predecessors, after all, also called for an end to American military involvement in the country, concluding, as Biden did, that the human and financial cost no longer justified staying.
Biden’s decision appears to reflect the need to move on from a war that, some would argue, was impossible to “win” from the day it started. History tells us that foreign invasions of Afghanistan have always failed. Ironically, America had the example of the Russian invasion of Afghanistan that began Christmas Eve 1979 and lasted a decade. The engagement was a disaster for the Soviets, who lost more than 15,000 soldiers.
In announcing the August 31 target for completing withdrawal, Biden offered his rationale:
After 20 years — a trillion dollars spent training and equipping hundreds of thousands of Afghan National Security and Defense Forces, 2,448 Americans killed, 20,722 more wounded, and untold thousands coming home with unseen trauma to their mental health — I will not send another generation of Americans to war in Afghanistan with no reasonable expectation of achieving a different outcome.
This rationale appears sound. I have yet to hear anyone present a credible alternative course of action. Republicans suggest the evacuation was “botched” and premature, but we haven’t heard how staying longer in Afghanistan would result in a complete defeat of the Taliban. As Biden explained on August 14:
One more year, or five more years, of U.S. military presence would not have made a difference if the Afghan military cannot or will not hold its own country. And an endless American presence in the middle of another country’s civil conflict was not acceptable to me.
We now know that another year, or five years, of engagement in Afghanistan would not have changed the outcome. In this sense, Biden was right to decide to withdraw.
The decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and that government’s ultimate defeat are now history. Who deserves the most blame? Biden? Trump, who negotiated a “settlement” with the Taliban that strengthened their position in the country and pledged a complete U.S. withdrawal by May 2021; Obama, who kicked the can down the road; or George W. Bush, who started the war without thinking about how it would end?
The embarrassment America suffered this week will be less painful than the future that appears likely for many Afghan citizens. That future includes death and torture for Afghans who supported the U.S. mission and will now suffer retaliation. Inevitably, many will not make it successfully out of the country.
Then there is the question of what type of regime will govern the country. Fears are rampant that girls and women will be banned from education and stripped of most civil liberties. A medieval system of justice may also return. Another final fear is that Afghanistan will become a haven and operating base for terrorism against the U.S. and western civilization.
The worst of the Afghanistan story may be yet to come.
J.E. Dean of Oxford is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, birds, and occasionally goldendoodles.
Rev Julie Hart says
Thank you for the dose of reality. Thank you for recalling Vietnam and our now similar exit. Thank you for recalling that ‘even’ the Russians failed in Afghanistan.
What is terribly sad and costly in human life, and resources, is the reality that the United States of America is not capable of winning a conflict or war. (You could also have added Korea.) We did even have assistance from Allies. What is also sad, is that as human beings we never learn from history. We repeat it; never changing tactics, and expect different results.
One must look up the chain of command because the blame does stop there. We know who started this war. He is at fault. We know who’s ending it, and he is to blame for the current chaos.
Being a military wife of a USAF Officer of 20 years, I take extreme exception to our Governor saying that the loss of life of MD military was for nothing. Here, he is the fool. Their lives counted for everything, as well as those maimed for life; all who served with bravery and honor. Don’t dare tell their families, Governor Hogan, that their service–their lives were for nothing!
Maybe this time we’ll learn, and “swords will be beaten into plowshares.” And “there will be no more war.”
Peace,
Rev Julie Hart
John Dean says
Thank you for your insightful comment. In particular, I had not focused on Governor Hogan’s comments.
I appreciate your reading the article, but not as much as I appreciate your wish for no more war.
Stephen Schaare says
Hi Mr. Dean, There is, clearly no sense in remaining in this Medeival cesspool of tribes and torture. That is not the issue, as I suspect you know.
The only thing that matters is the process of withdrawal . Are we to believe that twenty years in this God forsaken hellhole did not teach our military and state department how these savages behave? Such a complete, absolute failure of our intel agencies? The complete lack of planning and insight of what resources would be needed? I just saw the chaos at the one remaining airport. Such a throng of desperate humanity making it impossible for planes to either land or take off.
To think of the doomed afghanis that helped us, translators. They will have unspeakable things happen to themselves and families. These monsters kill the families also.
To think that this once proud Republic has been brought so low is disgusting. Biden sent five thousand troops, still we have complete disaster. Send ten thousand, then twenty thousand. Whatever is needed to stop the butchery of those who helped.
Pretty clear we do not have the best and the brightest in control.Disgusting.
John Dean says
I’m not sure what to make of your comment. I share your view that we needed to get out of Afghanistan and that it is tragic that those that supported the U.S. mission now face extreme risk.
As you might guess, I’m not ready to blame the whole mess on Biden. In my view, and this is extremely complicated, maybe we should never have gotten involved in the first place.
In any case, I appreciate your reading the article and commenting.
Darrell parsons says
Thank you Mr. Dean for your thoughtful analysis of a very complex issue.
David Reel says
It has been said that politics is often the art of taking credit when things go well and assigning blame to others when things do not go well. That is certainly the guiding principle of the current occupant of the White House with regard to the fiasco in Afghanistan. We would have been much better served if Biden had followed the actions of Dwight Eisenhower following D-Day; the ultimately successful Allied invasion of France that marked the beginning of the end of World War II in Europe.
Long unfairly characterized as an inarticulate, unengaged and bumbling President, recent historical research indicates Eisenhower was a shrewd and nimble leader while serving in the military and as President. This research also affirms he did not engage in taking credit or assigning blame. Exhibit A follows.
Days after D-Day was deemed a success, a military aide discovered a note written and discarded by then General Eisenhower. The note was handwritten, dated June 7, 1944 and was to be released publicly if things did not go well. It said simply:
“Our landings in the Cherbourg-Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have withdrawn the troops. My decision to attack at this time and place was based upon the best information available. The troops, the air and the Navy did all that Bravery and devotion to duty could do. If any blame or fault attaches to the attempt it is mine alone.”
The last two sentences capture the essence of true leadership. Sadly, such words are increasingly rare in the world of politics today at all levels. We as the public share both the blame and the consequences by not expecting or demanding better.
Paul Callahan says
John, You touched on the issue but then turned away and deflected it. The issue is not the decision to withdrawal from Afghanistan but how it was completely botched. How our President’s, and yes the buck stops with him, complete failure to ensure an orderly and honorable withdrawal that first and foremost protected US citizens and our Taliban allies. We had 20 years to plan this withdrawal yet it was a complete failure on so many levels.
It has become obvious that our President was more concerned with boasting about being out of Afghanistan by the 20th anniversary of 911 then listening to his military advisors. It is incomprehensible to withdrawal our forces before ensuring the safety of our citizens and Afghan allies. The 5,000 plus ISIS and other terrorist prisoners that we kept there should have been secured instead of allowing them to be freed by the Taliban. With our open borders we now will face a renewed and dramatically increased terrorist threat.
The real tragedy of this incompetence will be the murder, brutality and rape of tens of thousands of innocent civilians. This failure has emboldened the enemies of America and have given them cause to become empowered.
No – you can not blame Obama, Trump, or whoever, or simply state it would have made no difference anyway – that is just excuses to minimize the incomprehensible failure of Mr. Biden. The buck stops with him.
Stephen Schaare says
Wow, and WOW! BRILLIANT! With admiration.
Deirdre LaMotte says
How utterly ridiculous your statement is. Do you not realize the catastrophe of meddling in a civil war abroad is? My father was at the Naval War College, 1963-64, and was
against our involvement in the Vietnam War. He was a military historian as well as infantry officer. He had fought in WW11 and Korea and was smart enough to know our involvement in a
protracted war would not end well, given the history of other nation’s involvement. He was in Vietnam in 66-67, as his job demanded, but he was a realist in 1975 when we left.
We went into Afghanistan to find those who attacked us. We stayed because no other President had the guts to pull out. Period.
There are horrible regimes worldwide doing despicable things to civilians. I’m not so sure I want our men and women in uniform to be policing this. There are plenty of economic, national and social aid groups monitoring this.
You know why I like Biden? He is a realist and has empathy. Unlike the clown before him who would adore the Taliban if they drive late model Mercedes, lived in garish
palaces-and stroked his fragile ego. Biden will do what it takes to make sure, as best he can, human rights are monitoredand action will be taken if not. Just as we do with other undemocratic regimes. I am against any people taking away women’s rights, here or abroad. And we have a Party in this country hell bent on keeping women subjugated through religious “laws”. Sounds quite familiar….
Stephen Schaare says
Your last entry is troubling, yet expected. Joe Biden is clearly “diminished”. He has no more understanding of what is taking place than the white perch being picked apart by the bald eagle on my pier.