Chances are Nikki Haley will not beat Trump and steal the GOP nomination. It is more than a long shot for that to happen. Haley could not even get the Senator she appointed, Tim Scott (R-SC), to endorse her. And she is behind by more than 30 points in her home state. Haley may be the last woman standing between Trump and the nomination, but only the most unlikely scenario would find her around by the end of March.
Trump has proven that a majority of Republican voters either do not believe Trump is guilty of serious crimes or do not care. Most of them continue to believe Trump is the victim of unfair prosecution that Joe Biden launched against him.
Thus, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Fortunately, that does not mean he will be elected president. It is far more likely that Joe Biden will be inaugurated for a second term on January 20, 2025.
How will Biden win? It will not be because of his legal troubles. It will be the economy, stupid. Democratic and independent voters, and even a few sane Republicans, are starting to wake up to the fact that the economy is good and getting better. Maybe that is one reason why Donald Trump expressed the bizarre hope that the economy will crash before election day. Trump knows that the success of the Biden presidency will carry Biden over the line.
Economists now tell us that the U.S. economic recovery is stronger than that of any other western economy. They also now predict “a soft landing” for the economy, meaning there will not be a recession. And they also acknowledge something that consumers do not need an economist to tell them—inflation is subsiding. Mind you, prices are still high, but they are no longer rising precipitously.
Over the next 10 months, Donald Trump will do his best to convince voters that Joe Biden has been a disaster as president and that today’s strengthening economy resulted from his four years in the White House. That is a heavy lift that even Trump supporters are likely to question. Donald, they will say, you cannot have it both ways. Either the economy is a disaster, or it is not.
Joe Biden continues to have vulnerability on border security, crime, “wokeness” (many Republicans craft their own definition of wokeness and then condemn it), and, of course, Biden’s age and Vice President Harris. How many voters who are not already wedded to Trump will migrate to his camp on the basis of these issues? My guess is few.
James Carville, the Ragin’ Cajun who helped put Bill Clinton in the White House, told us, “It’s the economy, stupid.” He was and continues to be right. On election day, voters look at their own circumstances and focus on those issues. Are they hopeful about the future—things like jobs, inflation, housing, and health? If they are, they will support Biden.
Three years ago, Joe Biden decided to “go big.” He passed major infrastructure legislation, committing trillions of dollars to address a variety of national problems, including action on climate change, roads, and social services. The economy is now telling us that “Biden’s reckless spending” did not crash the economy or give us double-digit inflation.
Better yet is something not appreciated by most of us. Much of the stimulus to the economy inherent in the infrastructure legislation is yet to come. Many of the construction projects authorized by the legislation, for example, are only now getting underway. This means that the Biden legislation will continue to create jobs, making a rise in the unemployment rate less likely. And the money flowing into the economy as infrastructure projects get underway will help ensure a continued robust economy.
Finally, let’s look at foreign affairs. The world is a mess. Trump, right on cue, claims that if he had succeeded in stealing the 2020 election (he does not refer to it quite that way), there would be no war in Ukraine, Israel, or anywhere else. He claims the military loved him and that world leaders across the globe respected him. These claims defy credibility. They are patently absurd. Yes, the world is a mess, but it is easier to imagine it being much more of a mess had Trump won in 2020.
A few years ago, a wise friend told me that federal prosecutors should give Trump a pass—do not attempt to hold him accountable because he will paint himself a victim. In a way, my friend was right. But I disagreed with him then, and I disagree with him now. Nobody is above the law. If you do the crime, you should do the time.
On election day, 2024 voters will focus on their kitchen-table issues. If they do so, Biden will win. You can fool some of the people some of the time, but that is it. And voters do not have to trust anyone to see that the economy is strengthening, and that Biden is not the problem.
The economy will save Joe Biden.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government and other subjects.
David Stevens says
Trump supporters believe him about the 2020 election and now that the judicial system is rigged and out to get him. But few other Americans believe his constant lies. With the huge judgement against him in the E J Carroll case it is hard for anyone to ignore that case which was not brought by the Justice Department but filed by a private citizen. The judgement also included a finding that in fact Trump molested her. The Judge called it rape. How many Americans think a rapist should be President? Add to that all the other justifiable felony charges he faces. You have to be one of his rabid followers to think there is no justification for all his legal problems.
John Dean says
Thanks for your response and for reading the piece. I continue to struggle with understanding how his supporters are comfortable with his various legal problems, especially the E. J. Carroll case.
William T. Knight says
Once again, Mr. Dean has articulated a hopeful insight into what’s coming our way in November. How we wish that Joe Biden had a team of Dean, Craig Fuller and Al From [maybe even our own Dave Whelan]. Tom Knight
John Dean says
I’m not sure I belong in the company of Fuller, From, or Wheelan, but thank you for the thought. I think President Biden will hire some talented campaign advisers who will do a good job for him. My fingers are crossed.
Wilson Dean says
JE Dean is correct—-when it comes time to cast their ballots, voters look first to the economy. Joe Biden passed the big economy-boosting infrastructure legislation that Donald Trump promised but couldn’t deliver, and then is delivering a soft landing when many economists predicted recession. The choice on Election Day will be “Unpredictable Chaos” or “Solid Economic Performance.” My guess most voters will prefer the latter.
Mickey Terrone says
Hi John. I hope you are correct, but I have my doubts about the economy saving Biden. Remember, many of these die-hard Republican rank and file white evangelicals think that God sent His woebegotten son, Donald Trump, to save America. These are the po’ folks who have no problem with Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthy, eliminating affordable health insurance and Trump is the ONLY person who can make America great again. With that kind of thinking, I’m not sure these folk are educable.
About now, many of base are tightly focused and hopping mad at Taylor Swift for failing to show deference to the woebegotten son with an alleged plan to announce her endorsement of Biden at halftime of the Super Bowl. I mean, who has time for thinking about the economy? Besides, Trump says the stock market is ready to crash. Biden would stand a better chance is he could keep the prices of beer and cigarettes down until November.
David Taylor says
Keep this in mind when Democrats and the mainstream media try to sell you on the idea that “Bidenomics” is working. Source: rollcall.com
In March 2021, when the American Rescue Plan was signed, the inflation rate was 2.6 percent. By May 2021, it was at 5 percent, starting a 23-month run at that rate or higher. The peak inflation run was a 12-month period from December 2021 through November 2022 of 7 percent or higher.
While the monthly, year-over-year rate has certainly dropped, the electorate sees this from a different perspective — by how much prices have gone up since Biden was inaugurated. That is more important to the electorate, as prices have increased by 17.3 percent, what The Winston Group has termed the Presidential Inflation Rate (PIR). In looking at the performance of the previous seven presidents at the same point in their terms, only President Jimmy Carter had a larger increase.
The rise in gas prices is a good example of why voters remain skeptical of Biden’s claims.
There is no question that gas prices have come down significantly since the summer of 2022, when cumulative gas prices had increased by a staggering 107.4 percent, measuring from Biden’s inauguration month. But gas prices are still 35.1 percent higher than what they were in January 2021. That’s a tough sell.
So is telling consumers that food price inflation has dropped to below 3 percent, when overall food prices have gone up 20.1 percent since Biden took office. As with gas prices, only Carter had a higher increase in food prices at this point in his term.
Electricity costs have also risen significantly, increasing cumulatively by 25.1 percent. This is the largest price increase of any of the last seven presidents — and yet Biden decides this week to clamp down on natural gas.
John Dean says
Thank you for reading the piece and for the numbers. I suspect you won’t agree with me, but I considered the infrastructure bills as necessary. The repair of deteriorating infrastructure was necessary to support economic growth in the future. I would also argue that the end of the worst part of the pandemic triggered economic activity that cannot be attributed to Biden. Inflation would have risen even without an infrastructure bill.
I also am concerned about climate change. It is a global problem but one with a particularly negative impact on the Eastern Shore. Biden’s spending on measures to address climate change is necessary. I also welcome his “clamping down” on natural gas. Climate change cannot be ignored.
In any case, I appreciate your numbers and thoughtful response to my piece.
Charles Barranco says
Another Masterpiece, Mr Dean!
I hope this article is reposted, once a month and once a week in October!
Trump is on self destruct and for many reasons it will be his undoing.
As you said, “You can fool people some of the time”.
Eventually, supporters will understand, they are, always paying his legal fees, (50 + Million in 2023, and off to Millions already in January). And, he appeals every case on their dime. This pattern should be obvious, but with some it takes longer than others!
By October, there should be a few criminal convictions. Polls are showing a significant number of Republican supporters will not vote for Trump when he’s convicted. The SC is not about to give him Presidential Immunity and will likely remand the case to the lower Court! You can only tolerate a spoiled brat for so long!
In my opinion, Trump was finished a long time ago and knew it. So, he would try his luck in the Courts. That tactic worked well in the past, plaintiff’s ran out of money and had to settle on his terms. The fund raisers were raising millions for his legal fees, at no cost to him. He could appeal every case and delay the inevitable! However, a slight mistake, prosecutors don’t run out of money and neither did E Jean Carroll.
Trump is finished.
John Dean says
Thank you for your kind words. I hope you are right about Trump’s run about to end.